136
FXUS64 KEWX 160612
AFDEWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
112 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEK.
- LOW RAIN CHANCES RETURN FOR THE WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM (THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER TEXAS THIS MORNING WITH WEAK
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. HIGH PRESSURE IN THE LOWER LEVELS IS
PRODUCING WEAK SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS. THE AIRMASS OVER SOUTH-
CENTRAL TEXAS IS WARM AND MOIST WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S AND
DEWPOINTS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL
REMAIN DOMINANT IN THE SHORT TERM. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO
SUPPRESS CONVECTION KEEPING THE WEATHER DRY TODAY AND WEDNESDAY.
LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL REINFORCE THE LOW LEVEL AIRMASS.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE ABOVE NORMAL, AND SIMILAR
TO THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS, TODAY AND WEDNESDAY.
LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
THURSDAY A SURGE OF MOIST AIR UP THE RIO GRANDE MAY GENERATE
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON.
THURSDAY NIGHT AN UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE PLAINS AND
START TO ERODE THE RIDGE OVER THE SOUTH. THIS TROUGH WILL MOVE
SLOWLY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY PUSHING THE RIDGE TO
THE SOUTH. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH LIFT TO GENERATE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY MODELS ARE HINTING AT A COLD FRONT POSSIBLY MOVING
THROUGH OUR CWA, BUT HAVE NOT BEEN CONSISTENT FROM RUN TO RUN.
DESPITE THESE DIFFERENCES THE BLENDED SOLUTION SHOWS CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH A PEAK DURING MONDAY AFTERNOON.
AVIATION (06Z TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 71 95 71 95 / 0 0 0 10
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 69 95 70 95 / 0 0 0 10
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 68 95 69 95 / 0 0 0 10
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 68 90 69 90 / 0 0 0 10
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 71 93 73 93 / 0 0 0 10
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 69 93 70 93 / 0 0 0 10
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 68 93 69 93 / 0 0 0 10
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 68 95 69 95 / 0 0 0 10
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 68 94 69 94 / 0 10 0 10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 71 93 71 94 / 0 0 0 10
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 71 95 72 96 / 0 0 0 10
EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM...05
AVIATION...04
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