284
FXUS64 KEWX 170611
AFDEWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
111 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE SEPTEMBER TEMPERATURES PREVAIL.
- ISOLATED RAINS THROUGH THE WEEKEND, POSSIBLY BECOMING SCATTERED
NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM (THROUGH FRIDAY)
A SEASONABLY MOIST AIRMASS CONTINUES OVER OUR AREA THE REMAINDER OF
THIS WEEK. THERE ARE NO FEATURES THAT PASS CLOSE ENOUGH TO US IN THE
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT TO PROVIDE FORCING. SO, HEATING AND THE
SEABREEZE WILL HAVE TO PROVIDE IT. AS A RESULT, ONLY VERY ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
EVENING. SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES CONTINUE DUE TO NEUTRAL
THERMAL ADVECTION.
LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
THE PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH THIS WEEKEND WITH ISOLATED AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY NEAR THE COASTAL
PLAINS ALONG WITH SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/LOW AND POSSIBLY A FRONT DROP SOUTH OVER OUR
AREA ALONG WITH AN INCREASE TO ABOVE AVERAGE MOISTURE LEVELS EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THIS WOULD RESULT IN MUCH GREATER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AND IS SEEN IN THE LATEST (17/00Z) GFS AND UKMET.
HOWEVER, THERE IS MUCH UNCERTAINTY ON THIS SCENARIO AS MODELS AND
ENSEMBLES OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS HAVE BEEN INCONSISTENT AND LACKED
A CONSENSUS. SOME EVEN SHOW NO SUCH FEATURES WITH MINIMAL SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS AS SEEN IN THE LATEST (17/00Z) CMC. WILL MAINTAIN
THE PREVIOUS FORECASTS AND TREND TOWARD THE NBM AND ITS LOW CHANCE
POPS AND NEAR AVERAGE TEMPERATURES. SHOULD THIS WETTER SCENARIO
UNFOLD, THEN LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY THUNDERSTORM WINDS ARE
POSSIBLE.
AVIATION (06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
THERE ARE SOME HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING.
WE EXPECT SOME MVFR CLOUDS IN THE SAN ANTONIO AND DEL RIO AREAS
OVERNIGHT, BUT NOT ANY CEILINGS. WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL BE LIGHT AND
VARIABLE AND BECOME SOUTHEASTERLY AT 10 KTS OR LESS BY LATE MORNING.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 95 71 95 / 10 0 10
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 95 70 95 / 10 0 10
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 95 69 95 / 10 0 10
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 91 69 91 / 10 0 10
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 93 73 94 / 10 0 10
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 93 70 94 / 10 0 10
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 93 68 94 / 10 0 10
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 95 68 95 / 10 0 10
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 94 68 94 / 10 0 10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 94 71 95 / 10 0 10
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 96 72 96 / 10 0 10
EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM...04
AVIATION...05
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page