408
FXUS64 KEWX 171902
AFDEWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
202 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- ABOVE NORMAL AND MOSTLY DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS CONTINUE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
- AN UPPER DISTURBANCE COULD BRING HIGHER RAIN CHANCES AND A
SHIFT TOWARD SLIGHTLY COOLER WEATHER EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM (THROUGH FRIDAY)
A SW-NE ORIENTED RIDGE AXIS OVER TX WILL KEEP A LIGHT SE ONSHORE
FLOW AT LOW LEVELS, BUT CONTINUED GOOD DAYTIME MIXING FROM
MINIMAL LATE MORNING CLOUD COVER. THERE WILL OCCASIONALLY A
SMALL POCKET OF HIGHER MOISTURE POOLED AMONG THE LOW LEVEL
SOUTHEASTERLIES TO PROMOTE A STRAY DAYTIME SHOWER OR STORM EACH
AFTERNOON, BUT MOST AREAS WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN DRY WITH
WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS OVER TX BECOMES MORE POORLY DEFINED LATE
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. A MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH NM
FRIDAY WILL CARVE A WEAKNESS INTO THE UPPER RIDGE OVER NORTH
CENTRAL TX SATURDAY. THIS LEAVES A MID TO UPPER LEVEL NW FLOW
PATTERN OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE STATE, WHILE THE SOUTHERN
HALF STILL REMAINS MAINLY GOVERNED BY THE UPPER RIDGE. THERE
COULD BE SOME MOISTURE POOLING OVER THE REGION DURING THE
WEEKEND, SO THE OPPORTUNITY FOR LOW CHANCE POPS COULD REACH
MORE INLAND AREAS BY SUNDAY. BY SUNDAY NIGHT THE NW FLOW EXTENDS
LOWER INTO THE ATMOSPHERE TO WHERE A COLD FRONT IS POSSIBLE WITH
SOME ORGANIZED CONVECTION OVER THE I-35 CORRIDOR AND AREAS EAST
FOR MONDAY. MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE IN GENERAL ALIGNMENT BUT HAVE
THE TIMING SPREAD OUT OVER A COUPLE DAYS. THE NBM GUIDANCE COOLS
TEMPS DOWN A BIT TO SUGGEST A FRONT ARRIVAL BY TUESDAY, AND
THERE COULD BE FURTHER COOLING TO ARRIVE IF THE MODELS LOCK INTO
MORE CONSISTENT TIMING. THE BRIEF COOLER PERIOD SHOULD ONLY
LAST A DAY OR TWO AND A LATE WEEK WARM-UP IS LIKELY TO FOLLOW
WITH THE REBUILDING OF THE RIDGE OVER TX.
AVIATION (18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT AREA TAF SITES THROUGH THE
CURRENT FORECAST PERIOD. SOME CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM THE
COASTAL PLAINS INTO THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON. THIS
ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY ISOLATED, SO WE WILL NOT MENTION
IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. WINDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN FROM
THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST, EXCEPT FOR SOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS
NEAR SAT AND SSF EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. SOME BRIEF LOW CLOUDS
ARE POSSIBLE AT DRT THURSDAY MORNING, BUT WE WILL KEEP THE
FORECAST VFR FOR NOW.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 71 95 71 96 / 0 10 0 0
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 71 95 70 95 / 0 10 0 0
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 69 95 69 95 / 0 0 0 0
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 69 91 69 91 / 0 10 0 10
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 72 93 72 94 / 0 10 0 10
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 70 94 71 94 / 0 10 0 10
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 68 94 68 94 / 0 0 0 0
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 69 95 69 96 / 0 10 0 0
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 69 94 69 94 / 0 10 0 0
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 72 94 71 95 / 0 0 0 0
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 72 96 71 97 / 0 0 0 0
EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...18
LONG TERM...18
AVIATION...PLATT
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