147
FXUS62 KFFC 161733
AFDFFC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1233 PM EST SAT NOV 16 2024
..NEW 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 AM EST SAT NOV 16 2024
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE W FL PANHANDLE TO THE W
GREAT LAKES REGION WILL SHIFT E TO THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD BY LATE
SUNDAY. AT THE SURFACE, A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE E US WILL
SHIFT SE AND BE CENTERED OVER THE SE GA COAST BY LATE SUNDAY. SKIES
WERE MOSTLY CLEAR EARLY THIS MORNING OTHER THAN SOME LOW CLOUDS AND
FOG OVER THE NE MOUNTAINS. SOME OTHER PATCHY, MOSTLY LIGHT FOG WAS
NOTED ELSEWHERE, MAINLY NEAR BODIES OF WATER. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE
EXPECTED TODAY WITH VERY LIGHT, MOSTLY WESTERLY WINDS. HIGH
TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 50S IN THE
HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF THE N TO NEAR 70 ACROSS THE S. MOSTLY THIN HIGH
CLOUDINESS IS FORECAST TO INCREASE ACROSS N GA TONIGHT. LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MID 40S ACROSS MOST OF THE
AREA. HIGH CLOUDS WILL LINGER ACROSS THE N ON SUNDAY, WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S IN THE NE MOUNTAINS TO THE
LOWER 70S ACROSS CENTRAL GA. WINDS ON SUNDAY WILL REMAIN VERY LIGHT,
MOSTLY OUT OF THE S TO SW. /SEC
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 AM EST SAT NOV 16 2024
AT A GLANCE:
- HIGH PRESSURE TO START THE LONG TERM.
- A COLD FRONT ON WEDNESDAY WILL BRING A CHANGE IN ATMOSPHERE.
AS THE LONG TERM PICKS UP WE'RE SET TO CONTINUE UNSEASONABLY WARM
WEATHER MONDAY AND INTO TUESDAY THANKS LARGELY TO A LINGERING BERMUDA
HIGH THAT'S AS RELUCTANT TO LET GO OVER WARM WEATHER AS I AM. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 70S DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOW 60S. FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR,
THAT'S AROUND 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
UNFORTUNATELY, ALL GOOD THINGS COME TO AN END. A STRONG LOW PRESSURE
IS SET TO FORM IN THE DESERT SW ON MONDAY AND MOVE INTO THE GREAT
LAKES REGION BY TUESDAY. BOTH THE EURO AND GFS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT THIS SYSTEM WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE SE
KNOCKING TEMPS DOWN INTO THE 50S AND 60S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS CLOSER
TO WHAT WE'D EXPECT FOR MID NOVEMBER; UPPER 30S AND LOW 40S.
BOTH MODELS HAVE TRENDED A LITTLE FASTER WITH THE APPROACHING
SYSTEM. A TUESDAY AFTERNOON ARRIVAL COULD HELP TO GENERATE SOME
INSTABILITY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. BULK SHEAR
VALUES LOOK TO BE IN THE MID 30S BUT DETERIORATE QUICKLY AS THEY
ENTER THE CWA. GIVEN THE GENERALLY MEDIOCRE PARAMETERS, IT WOULD
APPEAR THE SEVERE THREAT REMAINS ON THE LOW SIDE. A RUMBLE OF THUNDER
IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE TUESDAY AFTERNOON THOUGH. ESTIMATED QPF TOTALS
RANGE FROM HALF AN INCH TO AN INCH, WITH THE SOUTHWESTERN PORTION OF
THE CWA LOOKING AT THE HIGHEST LIKELY TOTALS. GIVEN HOW DRY WE'VE
BEEN THIS FALL, THERE IS LITTLE THREAT FOR FLOODING RAIN.
AFTER THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH, COOLER DRYER WEATHER WILL RE-
ESTABLISH AS THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW FLATTENS OUT. A TREND THAT WILL
TAKE US INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
VAUGHN
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1228 PM EST SAT NOV 16 2024
VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. WIND SPEEDS WILL BE LIGHT THROUGH THE
ENTIRE PERIOD AND LIKELY GO VRB OVERNIGHT. PATCHY FOG WILL ALSO
BE LIKELY TONIGHT AND TOMORROW NIGHT.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
HIGH CONFIDENCE ALL ELEMENTS.
NLISTEMAA
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
ATHENS 42 70 44 72 / 0 0 0 0
ATLANTA 46 69 47 72 / 0 0 0 0
BLAIRSVILLE 40 68 42 70 / 0 0 0 0
CARTERSVILLE 42 70 44 72 / 0 0 0 0
COLUMBUS 47 74 48 76 / 0 0 0 0
GAINESVILLE 44 68 47 71 / 0 0 0 0
MACON 43 72 44 74 / 0 0 0 0
ROME 41 71 44 72 / 0 0 0 0
PEACHTREE CITY 42 71 43 73 / 0 0 0 0
VIDALIA 46 72 47 75 / 0 0 0 0
FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...NLISTEMAA
LONG TERM....VAUGHN
AVIATION...NLISTEMAA
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