780
FXUS62 KFFC 161944
AFDFFC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
244 PM EST SAT NOV 16 2024
..AFTERNOON AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SHORT TERM
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 235 PM EST SAT NOV 16 2024
HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF CLOUDS EXPECTED, SO
GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL OCCUR BOTH TONIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT.
LIGHT WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
EARLY MORNING SATELLITE PICTURES SHOWED A GOOD AMOUNT OF FOG IN THE
RIVER VALLEYS AND NEAR LAKES (STEAM FOG). DO THINK FOG WILL BE A BIT
MORE WIDESPREAD TONIGHT AND TOMORROW NIGHT AS GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING WILL OCCUR. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT, SO SOME PATCHY DENSE FOG IS
POSSIBLE.
NLISTEMAA
LONG TERM
(MONDAY MORNING THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 235 PM EST SAT NOV 16 2024
AT A GLANCE:
- RAINY START, DRIER END
- UNSEASONABLY COOL HIGHS BEHIND COLD FRONT
MOVING INTO MONDAY AND THE START OF THE WORK WEEK, OUR PRESIDING LOW
AMPLITUDE MID-LEVEL RIDGE AND SURFACE HIGH WILL BE SLOWLY NUDGED OFF
THE EASTERN SEABOARD BY AN ADVANCING FRONTAL SYSTEM. AS THE PARENT
LOW LIFTS NORTHWARD ACROSS THE PLAINS AND TOWARD CANADA, A COLD
FRONT IS SENT EASTWARD ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH. FOR NOW, SIGNALS
SUGGEST THAT A SWATH OF TROPICAL MOISTURE (LIKELY ORIGINATING FROM
TROPICAL STORM SARA) WILL REINVIGORATE AND REINFORCE THE HEAVY
RAINFALL POTENTIAL ALONG THE SOUTHERN END OF THE FRONT, NAMELY ALONG
THE GULF COAST. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED MOISTURE MAXIMA MAY "CUT OFF"
AREAS FURTHER NORTH OF THE GULF, LIMITING RAINFALL TOTALS. AS IT
STANDS, A DAY 4 MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IS IN EFFECT FOR
MUCH OF THE AREA BETWEEN I-20 AND I-16 ON TUESDAY, WITH
APPROXIMATELY 0.5-1" OF RAIN FORECAST TO FALL TUESDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. NBM GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A 50-60% CHANCE THAT AREAS WEST
OF ATLANTA RECEIVE MORE THAN 1" OF RAIN IN THE 24 HOUR PERIOD
SPANNING 7AM TUESDAY TO 7AM WEDNESDAY.
GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE FRONT WILL
HAVE CLEARED THE STATE BY MIDDAY WEDNESDAY, USHERING IN COMPARABLY
MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR IN ITS WAKE. HOWEVER, A SERIES OF
SHORTWAVES ROTATING ALONG THE OUTER EDGE OF A BROADER MID-LEVEL
CLOSED LOW WILL SWING SOUTHWARD AND THEN EASTWARD OVER THE BETTER
PORTION OF THE DAY THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY, INTRODUCING LOW-END (20% OR
LESS) PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR NORTH GEORGIA AS THEY CLIP THE TN/GA
BORDER.
AS WE APPROACH THE WEEKEND, NORTHWESTERLY FLOW SETS UP IN THE MID-
LEVELS AS TROUGHING PUSHES EASTWARD, WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
MOVING NORTHWARD FROM OVER THE GULF INTO THE SOUTHEAST. THE
COMBINATION OF THE TWO AFOREMENTIONED FEATURES WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO
LOCK IN A DRY (BUT GRADUALLY WARMING AND MODERATING) AIRMASS. HIGHS
PRE-FRONT (MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY) WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO
LOWER 70S, WITH LOWS IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S. FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK, MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS TO COME: HIGHS IN THE 50S TO LOWER
60S (UPPER 40S, EVEN, FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA!), AND LOWS IN THE 30S
TO NEAR 40.
96
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1228 PM EST SAT NOV 16 2024
VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. WIND SPEEDS WILL BE LIGHT THROUGH THE
ENTIRE PERIOD AND LIKELY GO VRB OVERNIGHT. PATCHY FOG WILL ALSO
BE LIKELY TONIGHT AND TOMORROW NIGHT.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
HIGH CONFIDENCE ALL ELEMENTS.
NLISTEMAA
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
ATHENS 40 69 45 73 / 0 0 0 0
ATLANTA 43 70 48 73 / 0 0 0 0
BLAIRSVILLE 38 68 42 70 / 0 0 0 0
CARTERSVILLE 41 71 45 73 / 0 0 0 0
COLUMBUS 42 73 49 76 / 0 0 0 0
GAINESVILLE 43 68 48 72 / 0 0 0 0
MACON 42 71 45 74 / 0 0 0 0
ROME 39 70 44 73 / 0 0 0 0
PEACHTREE CITY 40 71 43 74 / 0 0 0 0
VIDALIA 43 72 48 75 / 0 0 0 0
FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...NLISTEMAA
LONG TERM....96
AVIATION...NLISTEMAA
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