027
FXUS62 KFFC 162342 AAA
AFDFFC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
642 PM EST SAT NOV 16 2024
..NEW 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION
SHORT TERM
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 235 PM EST SAT NOV 16 2024
HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE CWA
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF CLOUDS
EXPECTED, SO GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL OCCUR BOTH TONIGHT AND
SUNDAY NIGHT. LIGHT WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
EARLY MORNING SATELLITE PICTURES SHOWED A GOOD AMOUNT OF FOG IN
THE RIVER VALLEYS AND NEAR LAKES (STEAM FOG). DO THINK FOG WILL BE
A BIT MORE WIDESPREAD TONIGHT AND TOMORROW NIGHT AS GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL OCCUR. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT, SO SOME
PATCHY DENSE FOG IS POSSIBLE.
NLISTEMAA
LONG TERM
(MONDAY MORNING THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 235 PM EST SAT NOV 16 2024
AT A GLANCE:
- RAINY START, DRIER END
- UNSEASONABLY COOL HIGHS BEHIND COLD FRONT
MOVING INTO MONDAY AND THE START OF THE WORK WEEK, OUR PRESIDING
LOW AMPLITUDE MID-LEVEL RIDGE AND SURFACE HIGH WILL BE SLOWLY
NUDGED OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD BY AN ADVANCING FRONTAL SYSTEM. AS
THE PARENT LOW LIFTS NORTHWARD ACROSS THE PLAINS AND TOWARD
CANADA, A COLD FRONT IS SENT EASTWARD ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH. FOR
NOW, SIGNALS SUGGEST THAT A SWATH OF TROPICAL MOISTURE (LIKELY
ORIGINATING FROM TROPICAL STORM SARA) WILL REINVIGORATE AND
REINFORCE THE HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL ALONG THE SOUTHERN END OF
THE FRONT, NAMELY ALONG THE GULF COAST. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED MOISTURE
MAXIMA MAY "CUT OFF" AREAS FURTHER NORTH OF THE GULF, LIMITING
RAINFALL TOTALS. AS IT STANDS, A DAY 4 MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL IS IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF THE AREA BETWEEN I-20 AND I-16
ON TUESDAY, WITH APPROXIMATELY 0.5-1" OF RAIN FORECAST TO FALL
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. NBM GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A 50-60% CHANCE
THAT AREAS WEST OF ATLANTA RECEIVE MORE THAN 1" OF RAIN IN THE 24
HOUR PERIOD SPANNING 7AM TUESDAY TO 7AM WEDNESDAY.
GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE FRONT WILL HAVE
CLEARED THE STATE BY MIDDAY WEDNESDAY, USHERING IN COMPARABLY MUCH
COOLER AND DRIER AIR IN ITS WAKE. HOWEVER, A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES
ROTATING ALONG THE OUTER EDGE OF A BROADER MID-LEVEL CLOSED LOW
WILL SWING SOUTHWARD AND THEN EASTWARD OVER THE BETTER PORTION OF
THE DAY THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY, INTRODUCING LOW-END (20% OR LESS)
PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR NORTH GEORGIA AS THEY CLIP THE TN/GA
BORDER.
AS WE APPROACH THE WEEKEND, NORTHWESTERLY FLOW SETS UP IN THE
MID-LEVELS AS TROUGHING PUSHES EASTWARD, WITH SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE MOVING NORTHWARD FROM OVER THE GULF INTO THE SOUTHEAST.
THE COMBINATION OF THE TWO AFOREMENTIONED FEATURES WILL BE
SUFFICIENT TO LOCK IN A DRY (BUT GRADUALLY WARMING AND MODERATING)
AIRMASS. HIGHS PRE-FRONT (MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY) WILL BE IN
THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S, WITH LOWS IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S. FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK, MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS TO COME: HIGHS
IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S (UPPER 40S, EVEN, FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA!),
AND LOWS IN THE 30S TO NEAR 40.
96
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 627 PM EST SAT NOV 16 2024
VFR CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE
EXCEPTION WILL BE AREAS OF MVFR/IFR VISIBILITY FROM ~08Z TO ~14Z
TONIGHT/TOMORROW (SUNDAY) MORNING. OTHERWISE, JUST INCREASING
CIRRUS COVERAGE IS EXPECTED THROUGH TOMORROW. LIGHT/VRB TO CALM
WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT/TOMORROW MORNING. WINDS WILL STAY
LIGHT TOMORROW AFTERNOON (GENERALLY LESS THAN 5 KTS) OUT OF THE SW
TO SSW.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...00Z UPDATE...
HIGH CONFIDENCE ON ALL ELEMENTS.
MARTIN
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
ATHENS 40 69 45 73 / 0 0 0 0
ATLANTA 43 70 48 73 / 0 0 0 0
BLAIRSVILLE 38 68 42 70 / 0 0 0 0
CARTERSVILLE 41 71 45 73 / 0 0 0 0
COLUMBUS 42 73 49 76 / 0 0 0 0
GAINESVILLE 43 68 48 72 / 0 0 0 0
MACON 42 71 45 74 / 0 0 0 0
ROME 39 70 44 73 / 0 0 0 0
PEACHTREE CITY 40 71 43 74 / 0 0 0 0
VIDALIA 43 72 48 75 / 0 0 0 0
FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...NLISTEMAA
LONG TERM....96
AVIATION...MARTIN
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