405
FXUS62 KFFC 170601
AFDFFC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
101 AM EST SUN NOV 17 2024
..NEW 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 937 PM EST SAT NOV 16 2024
NO IMPACTFUL CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE SHORT TERM FORECAST.
INCREASING CIRRUS COVERAGE IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT, BUT STILL
ANTICIPATING FOG DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT INTO TOMORROW (SUNDAY)
MORNING, ESPECIALLY IN VALLEYS/LOW-LYING AREAS AND NEAR BODIES OF
WATER. PATCHY DENSE FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE.
SHORT TERM
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 235 PM EST SAT NOV 16 2024
HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF CLOUDS EXPECTED, SO
GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL OCCUR BOTH TONIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT.
LIGHT WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
EARLY MORNING SATELLITE PICTURES SHOWED A GOOD AMOUNT OF FOG IN THE
RIVER VALLEYS AND NEAR LAKES (STEAM FOG). DO THINK FOG WILL BE A BIT
MORE WIDESPREAD TONIGHT AND TOMORROW NIGHT AS GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING WILL OCCUR. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT, SO SOME PATCHY DENSE FOG IS
POSSIBLE.
NLISTEMAA
LONG TERM
(MONDAY MORNING THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 235 PM EST SAT NOV 16 2024
AT A GLANCE:
- RAINY START, DRIER END
- UNSEASONABLY COOL HIGHS BEHIND COLD FRONT
MOVING INTO MONDAY AND THE START OF THE WORK WEEK, OUR PRESIDING LOW
AMPLITUDE MID-LEVEL RIDGE AND SURFACE HIGH WILL BE SLOWLY NUDGED OFF
THE EASTERN SEABOARD BY AN ADVANCING FRONTAL SYSTEM. AS THE PARENT
LOW LIFTS NORTHWARD ACROSS THE PLAINS AND TOWARD CANADA, A COLD FRONT
IS SENT EASTWARD ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH. FOR NOW, SIGNALS SUGGEST
THAT A SWATH OF TROPICAL MOISTURE (LIKELY ORIGINATING FROM TROPICAL
STORM SARA) WILL REINVIGORATE AND REINFORCE THE HEAVY RAINFALL
POTENTIAL ALONG THE SOUTHERN END OF THE FRONT, NAMELY ALONG THE GULF
COAST. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH
THE AFOREMENTIONED MOISTURE MAXIMA MAY "CUT OFF" AREAS FURTHER NORTH
OF THE GULF, LIMITING RAINFALL TOTALS. AS IT STANDS, A DAY 4 MARGINAL
RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IS IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF THE AREA BETWEEN
I-20 AND I-16 ON TUESDAY, WITH APPROXIMATELY 0.5-1" OF RAIN FORECAST
TO FALL TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. NBM GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A 50-60%
CHANCE THAT AREAS WEST OF ATLANTA RECEIVE MORE THAN 1" OF RAIN IN THE
24 HOUR PERIOD SPANNING 7AM TUESDAY TO 7AM WEDNESDAY.
GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE FRONT WILL HAVE CLEARED
THE STATE BY MIDDAY WEDNESDAY, USHERING IN COMPARABLY MUCH COOLER
AND DRIER AIR IN ITS WAKE. HOWEVER, A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES ROTATING
ALONG THE OUTER EDGE OF A BROADER MID-LEVEL CLOSED LOW WILL SWING
SOUTHWARD AND THEN EASTWARD OVER THE BETTER PORTION OF THE DAY
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY, INTRODUCING LOW-END (20% OR LESS) PRECIPITATION
CHANCES FOR NORTH GEORGIA AS THEY CLIP THE TN/GA BORDER.
AS WE APPROACH THE WEEKEND, NORTHWESTERLY FLOW SETS UP IN THE MID-
LEVELS AS TROUGHING PUSHES EASTWARD, WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
MOVING NORTHWARD FROM OVER THE GULF INTO THE SOUTHEAST. THE
COMBINATION OF THE TWO AFOREMENTIONED FEATURES WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO
LOCK IN A DRY (BUT GRADUALLY WARMING AND MODERATING) AIRMASS. HIGHS
PRE-FRONT (MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY) WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO
LOWER 70S, WITH LOWS IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S. FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK, MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS TO COME: HIGHS IN THE 50S TO LOWER
60S (UPPER 40S, EVEN, FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA!), AND LOWS IN THE 30S TO
NEAR 40.
96
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1246 AM EST SUN NOV 17 2024
VFR CONDITIONS WILL GIVE WAY TO MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS FOR SEVERAL
HOURS LATER TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING AS RADIATIONAL FOG DEVELOPS
AND EXPANDS. THE BEST CHANCE OF THIS WILL BE MOSTLY S OF THE ATLANTA
METRO AREA TO AHN AND POINTS S. HOWEVER, PATCHY FOG WILL DEVELOP
OUTSIDE OF THAT AREA. ADDITIONALLY, CIRRUS CLOUDS WILL BE THICKENING
OVER THE SW PORTION OF THE AREA, AND THIS WILL LIKELY LIMIT
RADIATIONAL COOLING AND FOG FORMATION IN THOSE AREAS. CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO IMPROVE BY MID-MORNING, WITH HIGH CLOUDS AND LIGHT,
MOSTLY S-SW WINDS.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM FOR EARLY MORNING VSBYS AND CIGS, HIGH FOR ALL OTHER
ELEMENTS.
SEC
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
ATHENS 45 73 51 65 / 0 0 10 60
ATLANTA 48 73 56 66 / 0 0 20 70
BLAIRSVILLE 42 70 49 62 / 0 0 20 80
CARTERSVILLE 45 73 55 67 / 0 0 20 80
COLUMBUS 49 76 58 70 / 0 0 20 70
GAINESVILLE 48 72 53 64 / 0 0 10 70
MACON 45 74 53 69 / 0 0 10 50
ROME 44 73 55 67 / 0 0 30 90
PEACHTREE CITY 43 74 54 67 / 0 0 20 70
VIDALIA 48 75 53 75 / 0 0 0 30
FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...NLISTEMAA
LONG TERM....96
AVIATION...SEC
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