156
FXUS62 KFFC 170921
AFDFFC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
421 AM EST SUN NOV 17 2024
..MORNING AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 AM EST SUN NOV 17 2024
AN UPPER HIGH OVER THE E GULF OF MEXICO WILL SLOWLY SHIFT SE AS A
STRONG SHORTWAVE MOVES FROM NW MEXICO TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON. AT THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SE U.S. WILL SHIFT
SE AND WEAKEN AS A STORM SYSTEM DEVELOPS OVER N MEXICO AND LIFTS NE
TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
EARLY THIS MORNING, UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS STREAMING NE FROM THE
AFOREMENTIONED SHORT WAVE OVER NE MEXICO ALL THE WAY TO THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. SOME OF THIS HIGH CLOUDINESS IS ALSO SPILLING OVER THE
SE UPPER RIDGE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE LOCAL AREA. THESE CLOUDS HAVE
BEEN SOMEWHAT THIN AND TRANSIENT THUS FAR EARLY THIS MORNING. AS A
RESULT, AREAS OF RADIATION FOG HAVE DEVELOPED. A FEW SPOTS ARE
REPORTING VISIBILITIES OF LESS THAN ONE MILE. THESE AREAS WILL LIKELY
EXPAND THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. FOG WILL BE THICKEST IN
VALLEYS AND LOW SPOTS AS WELL AS NEAR BODIES OF WATER. AT THIS POINT,
IT'S STILL UNCERTAIN WHETHER THERE WILL BE ANY AREAS OF DENSE FOG
LARGE ENOUGH TO WARRANT A DENSE FOG ADVISORY, BUT SUSPECT WE'LL AT
LEAST NEED AN SPS FOR FOG LATER THIS SHIFT.
AREAS OF FOG WILL GRADUALLY THIN AND LIFT BY MID-MORNING TODAY, WITH
FILTERED SUN UNDER CONTINUED CIRRUS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY.
HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 60S IN THE NE
MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER 70S ACROSS THE S COUNTY WARNING AREA. LOW
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 40S IN THE NE TO NEAR
50 ACROSS THE EXTREME SW. MORE RADIATION FOG DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED
TONIGHT. FOR MONDAY, MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL CLEAR, AND HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S IN THE N TO THE MID 70S
ACROSS MOST OF CENTRAL GA. /SEC
LONG TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 AM EST SUN NOV 17 2024
AT A GLANCE:
- RAINY START TO THE LONG TERM.
- DRY AND COOLER TO END IT.
MODELS HAVE BEEN IN PRETTY CONSISTENT AGREEMENT OVER THE PAST FEW
RUNS THAT TUESDAY WILL MOSTLY BE A WASH OUT FOR THE CWA. A FEW
RUMBLES OF THUNDER ARE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY ACROSS W AND NW GA WHERE
INSTABILITY AND SHEAR WILL BE THE HIGHEST, BUT WE CONTINUE TO LACK
THE INGREDIENTS FOR ANYTHING APPROACHING SEVERE.
MODELS HAVE CONTINUED TO EASE BACK ON THE TOTAL RAINFALL THOUGH. SO
LITTLE VICTORIES THERE. THE HIGHEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS LOOK LIKE
THEY'LL HAPPEN SOUTH OF OUR BORDER THOUGH SOME TRAINING STORMS AND
ISOLATED AREAS COULD CERTAINLY SEE AN INCH OR MORE. GENERALLY WE'RE
EXPECTING ANYWHERE FROM HALF TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH.
AFTER THAT, HIGH PRESSURE RE-ESTABLISHES FOR THE REST OF THE LONG
TERM. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NOTICEABLY COOLER ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE
COLD FRONT WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S AND 60S WHILE THE OVERNIGHT LOWS
FALL INTO THE 30S BY THE END OF THE WEEK. STRONG WINDS ON THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY MAY REACH ADVISORY CRITERIA WITH GUSTS UP TO 30MPH, BUT
THIS FAR OUT THERE IS PLENTY POTENTIAL FOR THAT TO CHANGE. IF YOU
STILL GO PLANTS OUTSIDE, NOWS THE TIME TO START THINKING ABOUT THEIR
WINTER HOME...I SHOULD PROBABLY CHECK ON MY CACTUS.
VAUGHN
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1246 AM EST SUN NOV 17 2024
VFR CONDITIONS WILL GIVE WAY TO MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS FOR SEVERAL
HOURS LATER TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING AS RADIATIONAL FOG DEVELOPS
AND EXPANDS. THE BEST CHANCE OF THIS WILL BE MOSTLY S OF THE ATLANTA
METRO AREA TO AHN AND POINTS S. HOWEVER, PATCHY FOG WILL DEVELOP
OUTSIDE OF THAT AREA. ADDITIONALLY, CIRRUS CLOUDS WILL BE THICKENING
OVER THE SW PORTION OF THE AREA, AND THIS WILL LIKELY LIMIT
RADIATIONAL COOLING AND FOG FORMATION IN THOSE AREAS. CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO IMPROVE BY MID-MORNING, WITH HIGH CLOUDS AND LIGHT,
MOSTLY S-SW WINDS.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM FOR EARLY MORNING VSBYS AND CIGS, HIGH FOR ALL OTHER
ELEMENTS.
SEC
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
ATHENS 68 44 73 52 / 0 0 0 0
ATLANTA 69 48 73 56 / 0 0 0 10
BLAIRSVILLE 68 42 71 49 / 0 0 0 10
CARTERSVILLE 70 44 74 54 / 0 0 0 20
COLUMBUS 73 49 76 59 / 0 0 0 20
GAINESVILLE 67 47 72 53 / 0 0 0 10
MACON 71 44 74 54 / 0 0 0 10
ROME 71 44 74 56 / 0 0 0 20
PEACHTREE CITY 70 44 74 54 / 0 0 0 20
VIDALIA 72 48 75 53 / 0 0 0 0
FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...SEC
LONG TERM....VAUGHN
AVIATION...SEC
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