170
FXUS62 KFFC 171927
AFDFFC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
227 PM EST SUN NOV 17 2024
..AFTERNOON AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SHORT TERM
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 212 PM EST SUN NOV 17 2024
HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH TOMORROW
AFTERNOON. SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR THIS AFTERNOON AND THE CLEAR
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. THE HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS
WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT LATE
TOMORROW AFTERNOON. ALONG WITH INCREASING CLOUDS, PRECIPITATION
CHANCES WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATE TOMORROW NIGHT AHEAD
OF THE FRONT. MODELS HAVE SLOWED THE PROGRESSION OF THE POPS FROM
PREVIOUS RUNS, SO CHANCES REMAIN 30-40 PERCENT IN THE WESTERN HALF
OF THE STATE VERY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. LITTLE TO NO INSTABILITY
AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY, SO WILL LEAVE THE MENTION OF THUNDER OUT OF
THE FORECAST FOR NOW.
PATCHY FOG WILL BE LIKELY AGAIN TONIGHT, ESPECIALLY NEAR
RIVERS/LAKES. TEMPS REMAIN 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD.
NLISTEMAA
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 212 PM EST SUN NOV 17 2024
AT A GLANCE:
- RAINY WORK WEEK, DRIER WEEKEND
- UNSEASONABLY COOL HIGHS AND GUSTY WINDS BEHIND COLD FRONT
BY TUESDAY, THE LAST VESTIGES OF OUR PRESIDING LOW AMPLITUDE MID-
LEVEL RIDGE AND SURFACE HIGH WILL BE EXITING OFF THE EASTERN
SEABOARD, NUDGED BY AN ADVANCING FRONTAL SYSTEM. AS THE PARENT LOW
LIFTS NORTHWARD ACROSS THE PLAINS AND TOWARD CANADA, A COLD FRONT IS
SENT EASTWARD ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH. FOR NOW, SIGNALS SUGGEST THAT A
SWATH OF TROPICAL MOISTURE (LIKELY ORIGINATING FROM TROPICAL
DEPRESSION SARA) WILL REINVIGORATE AND REINFORCE THE HEAVY RAINFALL
POTENTIAL ALONG THE SOUTHERN END OF THE FRONT, NAMELY ALONG THE GULF
COAST. IT LOOKS INCREASINGLY LIKELY THAT THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED MOISTURE MAXIMA MAY "CUT OFF"
AREAS FURTHER NORTH OF THE GULF, COMPARATIVELY LIMITING RAINFALL
TOTALS ACROSS NORTH AND NORTH CENTRAL GEORGIA. AS IT STANDS, A DAY 3
MARGINAL (LEVEL 1 OUT OF 4) RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IS IN EFFECT
FOR MUCH OF THE AREA BETWEEN I-20 AND I-16, WITH A DISTINCT GRADIENT
IN RAIN FORECAST TO FALL TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY: 0.75-1.25"
WEST OF I-75, AND 0.25-0.5" TO THE EAST. NBM GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A
40-50% CHANCE THAT AREAS WEST OF ATLANTA RECEIVE MORE THAN 1.5"
OF RAIN IN THE 24 HOUR PERIOD SPANNING 7AM TUESDAY TO 7AM
WEDNESDAY.
GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE FRONT WILL HAVE CLEARED
THE STATE BY MIDDAY WEDNESDAY, USHERING IN COMPARABLY MUCH COOLER
AND DRIER AIR IN ITS WAKE. HOWEVER, A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES ROTATING
ALONG THE OUTER EDGE OF A BROADER MID-LEVEL CLOSED LOW WILL SWING
SOUTHWARD AND THEN EASTWARD OVER THE BETTER PORTION OF THE DAY
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY, INTRODUCING LOW-END (20% OR LESS)
PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR NORTH GEORGIA AS THEY CLIP THE TN/GA
BORDER. ADDITIONALLY A STOUT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT LOOKS TO
SET UP IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT, AND GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY -- LIKELY TO BE STRONGEST IN THE TERRAIN OF
NORTHEAST GEORGIA. CURRENTLY FORECASTING WIDESPREAD GUSTS OF 20-25
MPH, WITH ISOLATED GUSTS TO 30 MPH (AND PERHAPS AS MUCH AS 35 MPH
FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA). WILL NEED TO MONITOR TRENDS FOR POTENTIAL
WIND ADVISORY ISSUANCE.
AS WE APPROACH THE WEEKEND, NORTHWESTERLY FLOW SETS UP IN THE MID-
LEVELS AS TROUGHING PUSHES EASTWARD, WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
MOVING NORTHWARD FROM OVER THE GULF INTO THE SOUTHEAST. THE
COMBINATION OF THE TWO AFOREMENTIONED FEATURES WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO
LOCK IN A DRY (BUT GRADUALLY WARMING AND MODERATING) AIRMASS. HIGHS
PRE-FRONT (TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY) WILL BE IN THE MID-60S TO MID-
70S, WITH LOWS IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND, MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS TO COME: HIGHS IN THE
50S TO LOWER 60S (UPPER 40S, EVEN, FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA!), AND LOWS
IN THE 30S TO NEAR 40. EXPECT HIGHS JUST A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER EACH
DAY.
96
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1234 PM EST SUN NOV 17 2024
VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. WIND SPEEDS WILL BE LIGHT THROUGH THE
PERIOD. LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT NIGHTTIME. A BRIEF PERIOD OF SE IS
POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SW TOMORROW.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
MED CONFIDENCE WIND DIRECTION. HIGH CONFIDENCE REMAINING ELEMENTS.
NLISTEMAA
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
ATHENS 45 73 52 64 / 0 0 0 60
ATLANTA 48 72 57 64 / 0 0 20 80
BLAIRSVILLE 43 71 50 62 / 0 0 10 80
CARTERSVILLE 44 73 55 66 / 0 0 20 90
COLUMBUS 48 76 60 69 / 0 0 20 80
GAINESVILLE 47 72 53 62 / 0 0 10 70
MACON 45 74 54 69 / 0 0 10 60
ROME 44 74 56 66 / 0 0 30 90
PEACHTREE CITY 44 73 54 65 / 0 0 20 80
VIDALIA 48 75 54 75 / 0 0 0 20
FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...NLISTEMAA
LONG TERM....96
AVIATION...NLISTEMAA
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