723
FXUS62 KFFC 180602
AFDFFC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
102 AM EST MON NOV 18 2024
..NEW 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION
SHORT TERM
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 212 PM EST SUN NOV 17 2024
HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH TOMORROW
AFTERNOON. SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR THIS AFTERNOON AND THE CLEAR
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. THE HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS
WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT LATE
TOMORROW AFTERNOON. ALONG WITH INCREASING CLOUDS, PRECIPITATION
CHANCES WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATE TOMORROW NIGHT AHEAD OF
THE FRONT. MODELS HAVE SLOWED THE PROGRESSION OF THE POPS FROM
PREVIOUS RUNS, SO CHANCES REMAIN 30-40 PERCENT IN THE WESTERN HALF OF
THE STATE VERY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. LITTLE TO NO INSTABILITY AHEAD
OF THE BOUNDARY, SO WILL LEAVE THE MENTION OF THUNDER OUT OF THE
FORECAST FOR NOW.
PATCHY FOG WILL BE LIKELY AGAIN TONIGHT, ESPECIALLY NEAR
RIVERS/LAKES. TEMPS REMAIN 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD.
NLISTEMAA
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 212 PM EST SUN NOV 17 2024
AT A GLANCE:
- RAINY WORK WEEK, DRIER WEEKEND
- UNSEASONABLY COOL HIGHS AND GUSTY WINDS BEHIND COLD FRONT
BY TUESDAY, THE LAST VESTIGES OF OUR PRESIDING LOW AMPLITUDE MID-
LEVEL RIDGE AND SURFACE HIGH WILL BE EXITING OFF THE EASTERN
SEABOARD, NUDGED BY AN ADVANCING FRONTAL SYSTEM. AS THE PARENT LOW
LIFTS NORTHWARD ACROSS THE PLAINS AND TOWARD CANADA, A COLD FRONT IS
SENT EASTWARD ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH. FOR NOW, SIGNALS SUGGEST THAT A
SWATH OF TROPICAL MOISTURE (LIKELY ORIGINATING FROM TROPICAL
DEPRESSION SARA) WILL REINVIGORATE AND REINFORCE THE HEAVY RAINFALL
POTENTIAL ALONG THE SOUTHERN END OF THE FRONT, NAMELY ALONG THE GULF
COAST. IT LOOKS INCREASINGLY LIKELY THAT THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED MOISTURE MAXIMA MAY "CUT OFF"
AREAS FURTHER NORTH OF THE GULF, COMPARATIVELY LIMITING RAINFALL
TOTALS ACROSS NORTH AND NORTH CENTRAL GEORGIA. AS IT STANDS, A DAY 3
MARGINAL (LEVEL 1 OUT OF 4) RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IS IN EFFECT
FOR MUCH OF THE AREA BETWEEN I-20 AND I-16, WITH A DISTINCT GRADIENT
IN RAIN FORECAST TO FALL TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY: 0.75-1.25" WEST
OF I-75, AND 0.25-0.5" TO THE EAST. NBM GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A 40-50%
CHANCE THAT AREAS WEST OF ATLANTA RECEIVE MORE THAN 1.5" OF RAIN IN
THE 24 HOUR PERIOD SPANNING 7AM TUESDAY TO 7AM WEDNESDAY.
GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE FRONT WILL HAVE CLEARED
THE STATE BY MIDDAY WEDNESDAY, USHERING IN COMPARABLY MUCH COOLER
AND DRIER AIR IN ITS WAKE. HOWEVER, A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES ROTATING
ALONG THE OUTER EDGE OF A BROADER MID-LEVEL CLOSED LOW WILL SWING
SOUTHWARD AND THEN EASTWARD OVER THE BETTER PORTION OF THE DAY
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY, INTRODUCING LOW-END (20% OR LESS)
PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR NORTH GEORGIA AS THEY CLIP THE TN/GA
BORDER. ADDITIONALLY A STOUT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT LOOKS TO
SET UP IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT, AND GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY -- LIKELY TO BE STRONGEST IN THE TERRAIN OF
NORTHEAST GEORGIA. CURRENTLY FORECASTING WIDESPREAD GUSTS OF 20-25
MPH, WITH ISOLATED GUSTS TO 30 MPH (AND PERHAPS AS MUCH AS 35 MPH
FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA). WILL NEED TO MONITOR TRENDS FOR POTENTIAL
WIND ADVISORY ISSUANCE.
AS WE APPROACH THE WEEKEND, NORTHWESTERLY FLOW SETS UP IN THE MID-
LEVELS AS TROUGHING PUSHES EASTWARD, WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
MOVING NORTHWARD FROM OVER THE GULF INTO THE SOUTHEAST. THE
COMBINATION OF THE TWO AFOREMENTIONED FEATURES WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO
LOCK IN A DRY (BUT GRADUALLY WARMING AND MODERATING) AIRMASS. HIGHS
PRE-FRONT (TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY) WILL BE IN THE MID-60S TO MID-
70S, WITH LOWS IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND, MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS TO COME: HIGHS IN THE
50S TO LOWER 60S (UPPER 40S, EVEN, FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA!), AND LOWS
IN THE 30S TO NEAR 40. EXPECT HIGHS JUST A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER EACH
DAY.
96
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1245 AM EST MON NOV 18 2024
MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT MOST SITES. HOWEVER, IFR TO
LIFR CONDITIONS IN FOG ARE POSSIBLE AT MCN TOWARD DAYBREAK. PATCHY
FOG IS POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE, BUT CONFIDENCE IS MUCH LOWER AT INDIVIDUAL
SITES. WINDS WILL BE NEAR CALM THROUGH THE NIGHT, THEN LIGHT WINDS
OUT OF THE SW ARE EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE DAY. WINDS MAY BACK TO SE
LATE IN THE PERIOD. SOME CUMULUS CLOUD DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE LATE
IN THE DAY TODAY AS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE BEGINS TO INCREASE AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING FRONT.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
HIGH FOR ALL ELEMENTS.
SEC
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
ATHENS 52 64 58 71 / 0 60 70 10
ATLANTA 57 64 60 69 / 20 80 70 10
BLAIRSVILLE 50 62 54 66 / 10 80 80 20
CARTERSVILLE 55 66 58 69 / 20 90 70 10
COLUMBUS 60 69 62 73 / 20 80 70 10
GAINESVILLE 53 62 59 69 / 10 70 70 10
MACON 54 69 60 73 / 10 60 70 10
ROME 56 66 57 68 / 30 90 70 10
PEACHTREE CITY 54 65 58 70 / 20 80 70 10
VIDALIA 54 75 62 75 / 0 20 60 20
FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...SNELSON
LONG TERM....96
AVIATION...SEC
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