183
FXUS62 KFFC 180925
AFDFFC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
425 AM EST MON NOV 18 2024
..MORNING AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 315 AM EST MON NOV 18 2024
SCATTERED TO BROKEN CIRRUS CONTINUES TO FILTER OVER THE AREA AS
UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE SPILLS OVER A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
SE US. AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG, WITH SOME LOCALLY DENSE
PATCHES, HAVE ONCE AGAIN DEVELOPED EARLY THIS MORNING. CONDITIONS
WILL IMPROVE BY MID-MORNING.
AN UPPER HIGH OVER THE S FL PENINSULA AND THE E GULF OF MEXICO
WILL CONTINUE TO BE SUPPRESSED TO THE S AS A SHORTWAVE ENTERING
THE S PLAINS LIFTS TO THE N MS VALLEY AND WEAKENS. IN ITS WAKE, A
BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL COVER THE W 2/3 OF THE COUNTRY. ANOTHER
WEAK SHORTWAVE, A REMNANT MID-LEVEL FEATURE OF FORMER TROPICAL
STORM SARA, WILL LIFT NE OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO BY LATE
TUESDAY. AT THE SURFACE, A DEVELOPING STORM SYSTEM OVER N TX WILL
LIFT NNE TO N MN. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE NW
TONIGHT, WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS SPREADING INTO THE AREA FROM THE
W LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. FORCING FROM THE
PRIMARY SHORTWAVE WILL WEAKEN AS THE STORM SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE
AREA, WITH ADDITIONAL SUPPORT FOR SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE S
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SARA REMNANT. AS A RESULT, THE HEAVIEST RAIN
TOTALS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE SW PORTION OF THE AREA, WHERE 1.5
TO 2" OF RAIN ARE POSSIBLE. RAINFALL TOTALS OVER THE E PORTION OF
THE AREA WILL BE CLOSER TO .25-.5". LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS ANTICIPATED. HOWEVER, A FEW STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE NW ON TUESDAY BEFORE DYNAMIC ENERGY WANES.
HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 60S OVER THE NE
MOUNTAINS TO THE MID 70S ACROSS THE S HALF OF THE AREA. LOW
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S IN THE NE
MOUNTAINS TO THE UPPER 50S IN THE SW. DUE TO CLOUD COVER AND
RAINFALL ON TUESDAY, HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 50S
IN THE NE MOUNTAINS TO THE MID 70S IN THE EXTREME SE. LOW
TEMPERATURES TUESDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 50S TO THE
LOWER 60S ACROSS THE AREA. /SEC
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM EST MON NOV 18 2024
AT A GLANCE:
- A COLD AND WINDY START TO THE LONG TERM.
- A CHANCE FOR A FEW ROGUE FLURRIES ACROSS NE GA THURSDAY NIGHT.
THE LONG TERM KICKS OFF AFTER THE FRONT PASSES AND THE RAIN CLEARS
OUT OF THE AREA. A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT BUILDS IN AS THE CENTER
OF THE LOW MOVES OFF TO THE NE. GUST WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY. THE HIGHS GUSTS WILL LIKELY OCCUR
OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF NORTHERN GA WHERE GUSTS UP TO 30MPH
WILL BE POSSIBLE. A WIND ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED AS WE MOVE INTO THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
TEMPS WILL BE RUNNING BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MOST OF THE LONG TERM
WITH DAY TIME HIGHS IN THE MID 50S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 30S.
SOME WRAP AROUND PRECIP OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY AND INTO THURSDAY COULD
BE MIXED WITH SOME FROZEN PRECIP ACROSS NE GEORGIA, THOUGH NO
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.
A THE UPPER LEVELS, THE FLOW FLATTENS OUT AND WE GO ZONAL FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK IN. WHICH
MEANS THAT WE'RE NOT EXPECTING ANY ADDITIONAL PRECIP AS WE GO INTO
THE WEEKEND. HOODIE SEASON IS FINALLY HERE.
VAUGHN
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1245 AM EST MON NOV 18 2024
MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT MOST SITES. HOWEVER, IFR TO
LIFR CONDITIONS IN FOG ARE POSSIBLE AT MCN TOWARD DAYBREAK. PATCHY
FOG IS POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE, BUT CONFIDENCE IS MUCH LOWER AT INDIVIDUAL
SITES. WINDS WILL BE NEAR CALM THROUGH THE NIGHT, THEN LIGHT WINDS
OUT OF THE SW ARE EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE DAY. WINDS MAY BACK TO SE
LATE IN THE PERIOD. SOME CUMULUS CLOUD DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE LATE
IN THE DAY TODAY AS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE BEGINS TO INCREASE AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING FRONT.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
HIGH FOR ALL ELEMENTS.
SEC
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
ATHENS 73 52 64 58 / 0 10 60 70
ATLANTA 73 57 65 60 / 0 20 80 70
BLAIRSVILLE 71 49 62 54 / 0 10 80 80
CARTERSVILLE 74 55 65 59 / 0 20 90 70
COLUMBUS 77 59 68 62 / 0 30 90 70
GAINESVILLE 72 54 63 59 / 0 10 70 70
MACON 74 54 68 60 / 0 10 60 70
ROME 74 55 65 57 / 0 30 90 70
PEACHTREE CITY 74 55 65 59 / 0 30 80 70
VIDALIA 76 54 75 62 / 0 0 20 60
FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...SEC
LONG TERM....VAUGHN
AVIATION...SEC
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