484
FXUS62 KFFC 181954
AFDFFC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
254 PM EST MON NOV 18 2024
..AFTERNOON AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SHORT TERM
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 PM EST MON NOV 18 2024
CHANGES IN THE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE ON THE HORIZON BUT FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON THINGS REMAIN PLEASANT. THE BIGGEST THING
TO NOTE FOR THE SHORT TERM WILL BE THE RETURN OF RAIN TO THE
FORECAST AREA AS A RESULT OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE THIS EVENING WITH RAIN CHANCES
INCREASING EARLY TUESDAY MORNING ACROSS WEST GA. RAIN BECOMES MORE
WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE ENTIRETY OF THE FORECAST AREA BY THE AFTERNOON
ON TUESDAY. INSTABILITY STILL APPEARS MINIMAL AT BEST WITH THE
MAJORITY OF THE FORCING DISPLACED TO OUR NORTH WITH INITIAL
SHORTWAVE ENERGY TRACKING NNE. HOWEVER, MAINTAINED SO LOW THUNDER
CHANCES IN FAR NORTHWEST GA THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. MILD
TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED THANKS TO DREARY CONDITIONS -- MAX
TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID/UPPER 50S IN NE GA TO MID 60S
ELSEWHERE. /07
FOR MORE SPECIFICS PLEASE SEE THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...
AN UPPER HIGH OVER THE S FL PENINSULA AND THE E GULF OF MEXICO
WILL CONTINUE TO BE SUPPRESSED TO THE S AS A SHORTWAVE ENTERING
THE S PLAINS LIFTS TO THE N MS VALLEY AND WEAKENS. IN ITS WAKE, A
BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL COVER THE W 2/3 OF THE COUNTRY. ANOTHER
WEAK SHORTWAVE, A REMNANT MID-LEVEL FEATURE OF FORMER TROPICAL
STORM SARA, WILL LIFT NE OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO BY LATE
TUESDAY. AT THE SURFACE, A DEVELOPING STORM SYSTEM OVER N TX WILL
LIFT NNE TO N MN. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE NW
TONIGHT, WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS SPREADING INTO THE AREA FROM THE
W LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. FORCING FROM THE
PRIMARY SHORTWAVE WILL WEAKEN AS THE STORM SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE
AREA, WITH ADDITIONAL SUPPORT FOR SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE S
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SARA REMNANT. AS A RESULT, THE HEAVIEST RAIN
TOTALS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE SW PORTION OF THE AREA, WHERE 1.5
TO 2" OF RAIN ARE POSSIBLE. RAINFALL TOTALS OVER THE E PORTION OF
THE AREA WILL BE CLOSER TO .25-.5". LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS ANTICIPATED. HOWEVER, A FEW STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE NW ON TUESDAY BEFORE DYNAMIC ENERGY WANES.
HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 60S OVER THE NE
MOUNTAINS TO THE MID 70S ACROSS THE S HALF OF THE AREA. LOW
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S IN THE NE
MOUNTAINS TO THE UPPER 50S IN THE SW. DUE TO CLOUD COVER AND
RAINFALL ON TUESDAY, HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 50S
IN THE NE MOUNTAINS TO THE MID 70S IN THE EXTREME SE. LOW
TEMPERATURES TUESDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 50S TO THE
LOWER 60S ACROSS THE AREA. /SEC
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 PM EST MON NOV 18 2024
AT A GLANCE:
- DRY CONDITIONS RETURN
- UNSEASONABLY COOL HIGHS AND GUSTY WINDS BEHIND COLD FRONT
BY WEDNESDAY MORNING AND THE START OF THE EXTENDED RANGE, ANY
LINGERING SHOWERS ARE LIKELY TO BE ISOLATED TO PORTIONS OF FAR
SOUTHEAST CENTRAL GEORGIA. GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE FRONT WILL
HAVE PUSHED OFFSHORE BY MIDDAY WEDNESDAY, USHERING IN COMPARABLY
MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR IN ITS WAKE. HOWEVER, A SERIES OF
SHORTWAVES ROTATING ALONG THE OUTER EDGE OF A BROADER MID-LEVEL
CLOSED LOW WILL SWING SOUTHWARD AND THEN EASTWARD OVER THE BETTER
PORTION OF THE DAY THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY, INTRODUCING VERY LOW-END (5-
10% OR LESS) PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR NORTH GEORGIA AS THEY CLIP
THE TN/GA BORDER. GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A STOUT SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL SET UP IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT, AND GUSTY
WINDS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY -- LIKELY TO BE STRONGEST IN
THE TERRAIN OF NORTHEAST GEORGIA. CURRENTLY FORECASTING WIDESPREAD
GUSTS OF 20-25 MPH, WITH ISOLATED GUSTS TO 30 MPH (AND PERHAPS AS
MUCH AS 35 MPH FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA). WILL NEED TO MONITOR TRENDS
FOR POTENTIAL WIND ADVISORY ISSUANCE.
AS WE APPROACH THE WEEKEND, NORTHWESTERLY FLOW SETS UP IN THE MID-
LEVELS AS TROUGHING PUSHES EASTWARD, WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
MOVING NORTHWARD FROM OVER THE GULF INTO THE SOUTHEAST. THE
COMBINATION OF THE TWO AFOREMENTIONED FEATURES WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO
LOCK IN A DRY (BUT GRADUALLY WARMING AND MODERATING) AIRMASS. HIGHS
AHEAD OF THE TEMPERATURE IMPACTS OF THE COLD FRONT (WEDNESDAY) WILL
BE IN THE MID-60S TO MID-70S, WITH LOWS IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S. FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND, MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS
TO COME: HIGHS IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S (UPPER 40S, EVEN, FOR
NORTHEAST GEORGIA!), AND LOWS IN THE 30S TO NEAR 40. EXPECT HIGHS
JUST A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER EACH DAY, UNTIL WE'RE BACK IN THE
UPPER-60S TO LOWER-70S ONCE AGAIN BY NEXT MONDAY.
96
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 102 PM EST MON NOV 18 2024
VFR CONDITIONS AND A SW WIND WILL PREVAIL THROUGH 06Z TUE. AFTER
06Z -SHRA WILL BEGIN MOVING INTO THE AREA FROM THE SW AFFECTING
CSG AND MCN. THE -SHRA ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE AHEAD OF
THE REMAINING TAF SITES. CIGS AND VSBYS WILL LOWER TO MVFR AT
MOST TAF SITES BY 12Z WITH IFR CIGS PREVAILING BY 16Z AT ATL AND
SURROUNDING TAF SITES. THE LOWER IFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE TUE AFTN.
/JAN22/
//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
HIGH FOR ALL ELEMENTS.
SEC
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
ATHENS 53 64 59 72 / 0 80 70 10
ATLANTA 57 65 61 69 / 10 80 60 10
BLAIRSVILLE 50 62 55 66 / 20 70 80 10
CARTERSVILLE 56 66 60 68 / 30 80 60 0
COLUMBUS 60 68 63 73 / 30 80 60 10
GAINESVILLE 55 63 60 69 / 10 80 70 10
MACON 55 68 62 74 / 0 80 70 10
ROME 56 67 57 68 / 40 90 60 0
PEACHTREE CITY 55 66 60 71 / 20 80 60 10
VIDALIA 55 76 63 76 / 0 50 60 20
FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...SEC
LONG TERM....96
AVIATION...SEC
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