784
FXUS62 KFFC 190627
AFDFFC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
127 AM EST TUE NOV 19 2024
..NEW 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 947 PM EST MON NOV 18 2024
DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT WITH CLOUDS ON
A GRADUAL INCREASE THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. RAINFALL WILL
INCREASE MOST APPRECIABLY FROM WEST TO EAST BEGINNING AROUND 12Z AND
PERSISTING THROUGH MOST OF TUESDAY.
RW
SHORT TERM
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 PM EST MON NOV 18 2024
CHANGES IN THE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE ON THE HORIZON BUT FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON THINGS REMAIN PLEASANT. THE BIGGEST THING
TO NOTE FOR THE SHORT TERM WILL BE THE RETURN OF RAIN TO THE FORECAST
AREA AS A RESULT OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED
TO INCREASE THIS EVENING WITH RAIN CHANCES INCREASING EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING ACROSS WEST GA. RAIN BECOMES MORE WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE
ENTIRETY OF THE FORECAST AREA BY THE AFTERNOON ON TUESDAY.
INSTABILITY STILL APPEARS MINIMAL AT BEST WITH THE MAJORITY OF THE
FORCING DISPLACED TO OUR NORTH WITH INITIAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY TRACKING
NNE. HOWEVER, MAINTAINED SO LOW THUNDER CHANCES IN FAR NORTHWEST GA
THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. MILD TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED THANKS
TO DREARY CONDITIONS -- MAX TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE
MID/UPPER 50S IN NE GA TO MID 60S ELSEWHERE. /07
FOR MORE SPECIFICS PLEASE SEE THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...
AN UPPER HIGH OVER THE S FL PENINSULA AND THE E GULF OF MEXICO WILL
CONTINUE TO BE SUPPRESSED TO THE S AS A SHORTWAVE ENTERING THE S
PLAINS LIFTS TO THE N MS VALLEY AND WEAKENS. IN ITS WAKE, A BROAD
UPPER TROUGH WILL COVER THE W 2/3 OF THE COUNTRY. ANOTHER WEAK
SHORTWAVE, A REMNANT MID-LEVEL FEATURE OF FORMER TROPICAL STORM SARA,
WILL LIFT NE OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO BY LATE TUESDAY. AT THE
SURFACE, A DEVELOPING STORM SYSTEM OVER N TX WILL LIFT NNE TO N MN. A
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE NW TONIGHT, WITH
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS SPREADING INTO THE AREA FROM THE W LATE TONIGHT
AND EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. FORCING FROM THE PRIMARY SHORTWAVE WILL
WEAKEN AS THE STORM SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE AREA, WITH ADDITIONAL
SUPPORT FOR SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE S ASSOCIATED WITH THE SARA
REMNANT. AS A RESULT, THE HEAVIEST RAIN TOTALS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS
THE SW PORTION OF THE AREA, WHERE 1.5 TO 2" OF RAIN ARE POSSIBLE.
RAINFALL TOTALS OVER THE E PORTION OF THE AREA WILL BE CLOSER TO
.25-.5". LITTLE IN THE WAY OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS ANTICIPATED.
HOWEVER, A FEW STORMS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE NW ON TUESDAY BEFORE
DYNAMIC ENERGY WANES.
HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 60S OVER THE NE
MOUNTAINS TO THE MID 70S ACROSS THE S HALF OF THE AREA. LOW
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S IN THE NE
MOUNTAINS TO THE UPPER 50S IN THE SW. DUE TO CLOUD COVER AND RAINFALL
ON TUESDAY, HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 50S IN THE NE
MOUNTAINS TO THE MID 70S IN THE EXTREME SE. LOW TEMPERATURES TUESDAY
NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 50S TO THE LOWER 60S ACROSS THE AREA.
/SEC
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 PM EST MON NOV 18 2024
AT A GLANCE:
- DRY CONDITIONS RETURN
- UNSEASONABLY COOL HIGHS AND GUSTY WINDS BEHIND COLD FRONT
BY WEDNESDAY MORNING AND THE START OF THE EXTENDED RANGE, ANY
LINGERING SHOWERS ARE LIKELY TO BE ISOLATED TO PORTIONS OF FAR
SOUTHEAST CENTRAL GEORGIA. GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE FRONT WILL
HAVE PUSHED OFFSHORE BY MIDDAY WEDNESDAY, USHERING IN COMPARABLY MUCH
COOLER AND DRIER AIR IN ITS WAKE. HOWEVER, A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES
ROTATING ALONG THE OUTER EDGE OF A BROADER MID-LEVEL CLOSED LOW WILL
SWING SOUTHWARD AND THEN EASTWARD OVER THE BETTER PORTION OF THE DAY
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY, INTRODUCING VERY LOW-END (5- 10% OR LESS)
PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR NORTH GEORGIA AS THEY CLIP THE TN/GA
BORDER. GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A STOUT SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL SET UP IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT, AND GUSTY WINDS ARE
POSSIBLE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY -- LIKELY TO BE STRONGEST IN THE
TERRAIN OF NORTHEAST GEORGIA. CURRENTLY FORECASTING WIDESPREAD GUSTS
OF 20-25 MPH, WITH ISOLATED GUSTS TO 30 MPH (AND PERHAPS AS MUCH AS
35 MPH FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA). WILL NEED TO MONITOR TRENDS FOR
POTENTIAL WIND ADVISORY ISSUANCE.
AS WE APPROACH THE WEEKEND, NORTHWESTERLY FLOW SETS UP IN THE MID-
LEVELS AS TROUGHING PUSHES EASTWARD, WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
MOVING NORTHWARD FROM OVER THE GULF INTO THE SOUTHEAST. THE
COMBINATION OF THE TWO AFOREMENTIONED FEATURES WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO
LOCK IN A DRY (BUT GRADUALLY WARMING AND MODERATING) AIRMASS. HIGHS
AHEAD OF THE TEMPERATURE IMPACTS OF THE COLD FRONT (WEDNESDAY) WILL
BE IN THE MID-60S TO MID-70S, WITH LOWS IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S. FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND, MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS TO
COME: HIGHS IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S (UPPER 40S, EVEN, FOR NORTHEAST
GEORGIA!), AND LOWS IN THE 30S TO NEAR 40. EXPECT HIGHS JUST A DEGREE
OR TWO WARMER EACH DAY, UNTIL WE'RE BACK IN THE UPPER-60S TO
LOWER-70S ONCE AGAIN BY NEXT MONDAY.
96
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 119 AM EST TUE NOV 19 2024
INITIAL VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING
BEFORE DETERIORATING RAPIDLY AS PRE-FRONTAL PRECIP MOVES INTO THE
AREA. MVFR CIGS BECOME LIKELY BY 12Z WITH IFR CIGS LIKELY BY AROUND
15Z AND CIGS IN THE LIFR RANGE AFTER AROUND 18Z. WIDESPREAD RAINS
WILL ALSO INCREASE AFTER 12Z AND PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY TODAY, WHICH
WILL DROP VSBYS AS LOW AS 3SM AT TIMES. WINDS WILL BE MOSTLY SE
THROUGH THE DAY, WITH WIND SPEEDS GENERALLY AT OR BELOW 8 KNOTS. RAIN
WILL DECREASE LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD, BUT LOW CIGS WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM FOR EXACT CIGS AND VSBYS, HIGH FOR OTHER ELEMENTS.
SEC
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
ATHENS 59 72 40 55 / 60 10 0 0
ATLANTA 61 69 41 55 / 60 10 0 0
BLAIRSVILLE 55 66 33 48 / 80 10 0 0
CARTERSVILLE 60 68 37 55 / 60 0 0 0
COLUMBUS 63 73 41 60 / 50 10 0 0
GAINESVILLE 60 69 40 53 / 70 10 0 0
MACON 62 74 40 59 / 70 10 0 0
ROME 57 68 36 55 / 60 0 0 0
PEACHTREE CITY 60 71 38 56 / 50 10 0 0
VIDALIA 63 76 44 61 / 60 20 0 0
FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...SEC
LONG TERM....96
AVIATION...SEC
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