125
FXUS62 KFFC 190929
AFDFFC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
429 AM EST TUE NOV 19 2024
..MORNING AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 353 AM EST TUE NOV 19 2024
KEY MESSAGES:
- MUCH-NEEDED RAIN WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA TODAY, WITH THE
HEAVIEST AMOUNTS FORECAST FOR W CENTRAL GA.
- A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, BUT
SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED.
- RAIN WILL END BY EARLY WEDNESDAY, WITH DECREASING CLOUDINESS AND
COOLER AND DRIER AIR FILTERING IN BEHIND A COLD FRONT.
MULTI-LAYERED CLOUDINESS BLANKETS THE AREA AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
FRONTAL SYSTEM. SOME PATCHES OF LIGHT RAIN ARE ALREADY SPREADING
ACROSS PORTIONS OF W CENTRAL GA. EARLY MORNING TEMPERATURES RANGE
FROM THE MID 40S ACROSS THE NE MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER 60S IN THE SW
PORTION OF THE AREA.
AN UPPER HIGH IS PRESENTLY LOCATED OVER THE FL STRAITS WITH A NARROW
RIDGE EXTENDING N TO THE E OH VALLEY. A BROAD UPPER TROUGH STRETCHES
FROM THE W OH VALLEY TO THE GREAT BASIN. OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS, AN
UPPER LOW OVER THE N PLAINS WILL DEEPEN AND SHIFT ESE OVER THE W
GREAT LAKES REGION AS THE UPPER HIGH TO OUR S SHIFTS FARTHER S AND
WEAKENS. ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE, A REMNANT MID-LEVEL FEATURE OF FORMER
TROPICAL STORM SARA, WILL LIFT NE OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO BY LATE
TODAY. AT THE SURFACE, A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM LOW PRESSURE OVER
THE N MS VALLEY TO SW LA AND THE EXTREME W GULF OF MEXICO. A WEAK LOW
IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP CLOSER TO THE GULF COAST TODAY IN RESPONSE TO
THE SARA REMNANT ENERGY. BOTH OF THESE FEATURES ARE FORECAST TO SHIFT
SE OF THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY EVENING. AHEAD OF THESE FEATURES, RAINS
WILL SPREAD INTO THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY.
THE QPF FORECAST REMAINS BASICALLY UNCHANGED, WITH FORECAST RAINFALL
AMOUNTS RANGING FROM 1.5 TO 2" IN THE SW CORNER OF THE COUNTY
WARNING AREA (CWA) TO .25-.5" IN THE E PORTION OF THE AREA. RAINFALL
TOTALS ACROSS THE ATLANTA METRO AREA ARE EXPECTED TO AVERAGE JUST
OVER AN INCH. LITTLE IN THE WAY OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS
ANTICIPATED. HOWEVER, A FEW STORMS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE NW HALF OF THE
CWA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING BEFORE DYNAMIC ENERGY WANES. RAIN
WILL END BY EARLY WEDNESDAY, WITH DECREASING CLOUDINESS AND COOLER
AND DRIER AIR FILTERING IN BEHIND A COLD FRONT. NW WINDS WILL BECOME
GUSTY BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
DUE TO CLOUD COVER AND RAINFALL TODAY, HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 50S IN THE NE MOUNTAINS TO THE MID 70S IN THE EXTREME
SE. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 50S TO THE LOWER
60S ACROSS THE AREA. CLOUDS WILL BE CLEARING ON WEDNESDAY, BUT HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE ONLY FORECAST TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S IN THE
EXTREME N TO THE MID 70S IN THE SE, A RESULT OF THE ONSET OF COLD AIR
ADVECTION INTO THE AREA. THIS COLD AIR WILL BECOME MORE SIGNIFICANT
IN THE LONG TERM PART OF THE FORECAST. /SEC
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 353 AM EST TUE NOV 19 2024
AT A GLANCE:
- A COLD AND WINDY LONG TERM WITH HOPE TOWARD THE END
- A CHANCE FOR A FEW ROGUE FLURRIES ACROSS NE GA THURSDAY NIGHT.
A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT BUILDS IN AS THE CENTER OF AN UPPER LEVEL
LOW MOVES OFF TO THE NE. GUSTY WINDS WILL LINGER INTO FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. THE HIGHEST GUSTS WILL LIKELY OCCUR OVER THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF NORTHERN GA WHERE GUSTS UP TO 30MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE.
TEMPS WILL BE RUNNING BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MOST OF THE LONG TERM
WITH DAY TIME HIGHS IN THE MID 50S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 30S. BUT
AS THE FLOW FLATTENS OUT AND WE GO ZONAL FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST, TEMPS WILL SLOWLY BEGIN TO RECOVER TO AN ENJOYABLE MID TO
UPPER 60S BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND.
VAUGHN
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 119 AM EST TUE NOV 19 2024
INITIAL VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING
BEFORE DETERIORATING RAPIDLY AS PRE-FRONTAL PRECIP MOVES INTO THE
AREA. MVFR CIGS BECOME LIKELY BY 12Z WITH IFR CIGS LIKELY BY AROUND
15Z AND CIGS IN THE LIFR RANGE AFTER AROUND 18Z. WIDESPREAD RAINS
WILL ALSO INCREASE AFTER 12Z AND PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY TODAY, WHICH
WILL DROP VSBYS AS LOW AS 3SM AT TIMES. WINDS WILL BE MOSTLY SE
THROUGH THE DAY, WITH WIND SPEEDS GENERALLY AT OR BELOW 8 KNOTS. RAIN
WILL DECREASE LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD, BUT LOW CIGS WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM FOR EXACT CIGS AND VSBYS, HIGH FOR OTHER ELEMENTS.
SEC
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
ATHENS 64 59 71 39 / 60 70 0 0
ATLANTA 64 61 70 40 / 90 60 0 0
BLAIRSVILLE 61 55 66 33 / 90 80 0 0
CARTERSVILLE 66 59 69 37 / 100 60 0 0
COLUMBUS 68 64 74 41 / 100 50 0 0
GAINESVILLE 62 59 70 40 / 90 70 0 0
MACON 67 62 74 40 / 80 70 0 0
ROME 66 58 69 36 / 100 50 0 0
PEACHTREE CITY 66 60 71 37 / 90 60 0 0
VIDALIA 74 64 76 43 / 70 70 20 0
FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...SEC
LONG TERM....VAUGHN
AVIATION...SEC
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