896
FXUS62 KFFC 192328
AFDFFC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
628 PM EST TUE NOV 19 2024
..NEW 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 PM EST TUE NOV 19 2024
A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE HIGH PLAINS CONTINUES TO DEEPEN AS
TROUGHING EXTENDING FROM THIS LOW ROTATES SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARDS THE
REGION. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS SOUTHWARD FROM THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
AND IS CURRENTLY POSITIONED OVER EASTERN MISSISSIPPI, PROGRESSIVELY
MOVING EAST. MEANWHILE, AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE POSITIONED APPROACHING
THE ATLANTIC COAST WILL CONTINUE TO DAMPEN AND TRANSITION EASTWARD
INTO THE ATLANTIC TODAY. BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES, GEORGIA IS
CURRENTLY UNDERNEATH SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW. THIS FLOW
PATTERN ALOFT, COMBINED WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE (A REMNANT MID-LEVEL
FEATURE FROM THE FORMER TROPICAL STORM SARA) LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD
OUT OF THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO, IS CONTRIBUTING TO AMPLE DEEP-
LAYER MOISTURE OVERSPREADING NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA. AS A RESULT,
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES QUICKLY INCREASED TO BETWEEN 1.5-1.8
INCHES OVER THE COURSE OF THE MORNING. A WEAK SURFACE IS ANTICIPATED
TO DEVELOP NEAR THE CENTRAL GULF COAST IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE
REMNANT ENERGY FROM SARA. WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL PERSIST ON THE
NORTHEAST SIDE OF THIS LOW AND IN THE REGION OF FORCING AHEAD OF THE
FRONT.
AT THE TIME OF THIS WRITING, THE AXIS OF THE MOST WIDESPREAD HEAVY
RAIN IS TO THE IMMEDIATE SOUTH OF I-85 AND IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT
SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS WILL ALSO
REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS THE
FRONT ADVANCES ACROSS ALABAMA AND TOWARDS THE FORECAST AREA.
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL FURTHERMORE BE POSSIBLE IN PORTIONS OF
WEST GEORGIA THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT IN THE CLOSEST VICINITY OF
THE FRONT, THOUGH SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED. RAINFALL AMOUNTS
BETWEEN 1-3 INCHES, WITH SOME LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS, HAVE BEEN
OBSERVED ACROSS WEST GEORGIA SO FAR TODAY, WITH PROGRESSIVELY LESSER
AMOUNTS TO THE EAST. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1-2 INCHES IN
CENTRAL GEORGIA AND 0.5-1 INCH IN NORTH GEORGIA ARE FORECAST THROUGH
TOMORROW MORNING. THE WIDESPREAD RAIN, ALONG WITH OVERCAST SKIES
AND LOW CLOUD CEILINGS, CONTINUE TO LIMIT DIURNAL HEATING, WHICH
WILL KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES LIMITED TO THE 60S ACROSS THE MAJORITY
OF THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF
FAR NORTHEAST GEORGIA WILL STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE UPPER 50S,
WITH LOCATIONS IN EAST-CENTRAL GEORGIA WILL INCREASE INTO THE 70S.
THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO ENTER FAR NORTHWEST GEORGIA LATE
TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING, PROGRESSIVELY MOVING EASTWARD
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS, USHERING LINGERING RAIN
OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA TO THE SOUTHEAST. NORTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL
FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT WILL FILTER IN A NOTICEABLY COLDER AND DRIER
AIRMASS BEHIND THE FRONT. AFTER LOW TEMPERATURES START THE MORNING
IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S, HIGHS WILL CLIMB INTO THE MID TO UPPER
60S GENERALLY NORTH OF I-85 AND IN THE LOW TO MID 70S TO THE SOUTH.
WITH A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT, NORTHWESTERLY WINDS ON WEDNESDAY
WILL BECOME QUITE BREEZY, PEAKING AT 12-18 MPH WITH GUSTS OF 25-30
MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON. CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO SCATTER OUT THROUGH
THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS, AS WELL. ONGOING COLD
AIR ADVECTION WILL BE MORE READILY APPARENT WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING, WHEN LOW TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP INTO
THE MID TO UPPER 30S ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA AND LOW 40S IN CENTRAL
GEORGIA.
KING
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 PM EST TUE NOV 19 2024
-MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES, DRY AND WINDY
-ISOLATED FLURRIES IN FAR NORTHEAST GA THURSDAY NIGHT
A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE SITUATED ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM. THIS SYSTEM, RESPONSIBLE FOR
THE COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATER TODAY, WILL CONTINUE TO
STRENGTHEN WITH SEVERAL WAVES OF ENERGY ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE
LARGER MID-LEVEL CLOSED LOW REINFORCING THE COOLER, DRIER AIR ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST AS WE HEAD INTO THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. A
TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL RESULT IN
CONTINUED WINDY CONDITIONS FOR NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA THROUGH
FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE HIGHEST WIND SPEEDS LARGELY EXPECTED FOR
THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS IN NORTHEAST GEORGIA. BUMPED UP WINDS A
TAD COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON --
WIDESPREAD 20 TO 25 MPH GUSTS WITH ISOLATED GUSTS RANGING 30 TO
35 MPH ACROSS THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS IN NORTHEAST GEORGIA. FOR
NOW THESE VALUES REMAIN BELOW WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA THOUGH WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS IN SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS. ANY WRAP
AROUND PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEPARTING SYSTEM LARGELY REMAINS
JUST TO OUR NORTHEAST THOUGH STILL CANNOT RULE OUT ISOLATED
FLURRIES AT THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS IN NORTHEAST GEORGIA THURSDAY
NIGHT. CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO DRY OUT AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND
AND WE TRANSITION TO MORE ZONAL FLOW ALOFT AND SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE IN THE NORTHERN GULF EXTENDING NORTHWARD. THIS PATTERN
SHOULD LARGELY KEEP US DRY WITH GRADUALLY WARMING TEMPERATURES AS
WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEK.
UNSEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE
WORKWEEK. THE COOLEST MORNINGS LOOK TO BE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
MORNING WITH MORNING LOWS IN LOW TO MID 30S -- FORECAST APPARENT (OR
FEELS LIKE) TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE LOW 30S AND PERHAPS DIPPING
INTO THE UPPER 20S IN FAR NORTH GEORGIA. FORECAST HIGHS EACH OF
THOSE DAYS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S IN NORTHEAST GEORGIA TO MID
50S ELSEWHERE. BY LATE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE BACK TO THE 60S/LOW 70S AND LOW
07
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 621 PM EST TUE NOV 19 2024
IFR/LIFR CIGS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH VSBYS AS
LOW AS 2SM, ESPECIALLY AFTER 06-09Z. ONLY GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT WILL
OCCUR DURING THE 15-17Z TIME FRAME WITH MVFR CIGS MORE LIKELY
AFTER 17Z. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BY 18-20Z. SCT -SHRA WILL
PERSIST THROUGH 08-10Z BEFORE TAPERING OFF. WINDS WILL BE SE TO
SSE THROUGH 08-10Z BEFORE SHIFTING TO SW AND THEN W TO NW ON
WEDNESDAY. SPEEDS 3-6 KTS OVERNIGHT INCREASE MARKEDLY AFTER 16Z
WITH SPEEDS 14-18 KTS AFTER 18Z WITH GUSTS 23-28 KTS.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...00Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON CIGS/VSBYS.
HIGH CONFIDENCE ON OTHER ELEMENTS.
RW
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
ATHENS 57 72 39 55 / 60 10 0 0
ATLANTA 60 70 40 54 / 50 10 0 0
BLAIRSVILLE 54 66 33 48 / 70 10 0 0
CARTERSVILLE 59 70 37 54 / 60 10 0 0
COLUMBUS 63 73 41 59 / 60 10 0 0
GAINESVILLE 58 70 39 53 / 70 10 0 0
MACON 61 73 40 59 / 70 10 0 0
ROME 58 70 36 55 / 60 0 0 0
PEACHTREE CITY 59 70 37 56 / 50 10 0 0
VIDALIA 62 75 44 61 / 70 30 0 0
FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...KING
LONG TERM....07
AVIATION...RW
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