792
FXUS62 KFFC 200555
AFDFFC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1255 AM EST WED NOV 20 2024
..NEW 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 946 PM EST TUE NOV 19 2024
SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS PERSIST ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA
THIS EVENING WITH LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY DRIZZLE ELSEWHERE. THESE
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL PERSIST IN SOME CAPACITY THROUGH THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS BEFORE TAPERING OFF FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE
PREDAWN HOURS WEDNESDAY AS A COLD FRONT BEGINS TO ENTER WEST GEORGIA
BY MORNING. CLOUDS WILL HANG AROUND LONGER BEFORE SCATTERING OUT
GRADUALLY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS DRIER AIR PUSHES INTO THE AREA IN
THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT OVERNIGHT BEFORE GUSTY
WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASE TOMORROW AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS.
RW
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 PM EST TUE NOV 19 2024
A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE HIGH PLAINS CONTINUES TO DEEPEN AS
TROUGHING EXTENDING FROM THIS LOW ROTATES SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARDS THE
REGION. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS SOUTHWARD FROM THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
AND IS CURRENTLY POSITIONED OVER EASTERN MISSISSIPPI, PROGRESSIVELY
MOVING EAST. MEANWHILE, AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE POSITIONED APPROACHING
THE ATLANTIC COAST WILL CONTINUE TO DAMPEN AND TRANSITION EASTWARD
INTO THE ATLANTIC TODAY. BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES, GEORGIA IS
CURRENTLY UNDERNEATH SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW. THIS FLOW
PATTERN ALOFT, COMBINED WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE (A REMNANT MID-LEVEL
FEATURE FROM THE FORMER TROPICAL STORM SARA) LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD
OUT OF THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO, IS CONTRIBUTING TO AMPLE DEEP-
LAYER MOISTURE OVERSPREADING NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA. AS A RESULT,
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES QUICKLY INCREASED TO BETWEEN 1.5-1.8 INCHES
OVER THE COURSE OF THE MORNING. A WEAK SURFACE IS ANTICIPATED TO
DEVELOP NEAR THE CENTRAL GULF COAST IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE REMNANT
ENERGY FROM SARA. WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL PERSIST ON THE NORTHEAST SIDE
OF THIS LOW AND IN THE REGION OF FORCING AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
AT THE TIME OF THIS WRITING, THE AXIS OF THE MOST WIDESPREAD HEAVY
RAIN IS TO THE IMMEDIATE SOUTH OF I-85 AND IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT SOUTH
AND EAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS WILL ALSO REMAIN
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS THE FRONT
ADVANCES ACROSS ALABAMA AND TOWARDS THE FORECAST AREA. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL FURTHERMORE BE POSSIBLE IN PORTIONS OF WEST
GEORGIA THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT IN THE CLOSEST VICINITY OF THE
FRONT, THOUGH SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED. RAINFALL AMOUNTS
BETWEEN 1-3 INCHES, WITH SOME LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS, HAVE BEEN
OBSERVED ACROSS WEST GEORGIA SO FAR TODAY, WITH PROGRESSIVELY LESSER
AMOUNTS TO THE EAST. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1-2 INCHES IN
CENTRAL GEORGIA AND 0.5-1 INCH IN NORTH GEORGIA ARE FORECAST THROUGH
TOMORROW MORNING. THE WIDESPREAD RAIN, ALONG WITH OVERCAST SKIES AND
LOW CLOUD CEILINGS, CONTINUE TO LIMIT DIURNAL HEATING, WHICH WILL
KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES LIMITED TO THE 60S ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE
FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF FAR NORTHEAST
GEORGIA WILL STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE UPPER 50S, WITH LOCATIONS IN
EAST-CENTRAL GEORGIA WILL INCREASE INTO THE 70S.
THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO ENTER FAR NORTHWEST GEORGIA LATE
TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING, PROGRESSIVELY MOVING EASTWARD
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS, USHERING LINGERING RAIN
OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA TO THE SOUTHEAST. NORTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL
FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT WILL FILTER IN A NOTICEABLY COLDER AND DRIER
AIRMASS BEHIND THE FRONT. AFTER LOW TEMPERATURES START THE MORNING IN
THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S, HIGHS WILL CLIMB INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S
GENERALLY NORTH OF I-85 AND IN THE LOW TO MID 70S TO THE SOUTH. WITH
A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT, NORTHWESTERLY WINDS ON WEDNESDAY WILL
BECOME QUITE BREEZY, PEAKING AT 12-18 MPH WITH GUSTS OF 25-30 MPH
DURING THE AFTERNOON. CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO SCATTER OUT THROUGH THE
LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS, AS WELL. ONGOING COLD AIR
ADVECTION WILL BE MORE READILY APPARENT WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING, WHEN LOW TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 30S ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA AND LOW 40S IN CENTRAL GEORGIA.
KING
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 PM EST TUE NOV 19 2024
-MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES, DRY AND WINDY
-ISOLATED FLURRIES IN FAR NORTHEAST GA THURSDAY NIGHT
A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE SITUATED ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM. THIS SYSTEM, RESPONSIBLE FOR
THE COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATER TODAY, WILL CONTINUE TO
STRENGTHEN WITH SEVERAL WAVES OF ENERGY ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE
LARGER MID-LEVEL CLOSED LOW REINFORCING THE COOLER, DRIER AIR ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST AS WE HEAD INTO THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. A
TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL RESULT IN
CONTINUED WINDY CONDITIONS FOR NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA THROUGH
FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE HIGHEST WIND SPEEDS LARGELY EXPECTED FOR
THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS IN NORTHEAST GEORGIA. BUMPED UP WINDS A TAD
COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON --
WIDESPREAD 20 TO 25 MPH GUSTS WITH ISOLATED GUSTS RANGING 30 TO 35
MPH ACROSS THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS IN NORTHEAST GEORGIA. FOR NOW THESE
VALUES REMAIN BELOW WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA THOUGH WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR TRENDS IN SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS. ANY WRAP AROUND PRECIP
ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEPARTING SYSTEM LARGELY REMAINS JUST TO OUR
NORTHEAST THOUGH STILL CANNOT RULE OUT ISOLATED FLURRIES AT THE
HIGHEST ELEVATIONS IN NORTHEAST GEORGIA THURSDAY NIGHT. CONDITIONS
CONTINUE TO DRY OUT AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND AND WE TRANSITION TO
MORE ZONAL FLOW ALOFT AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN THE NORTHERN GULF
EXTENDING NORTHWARD. THIS PATTERN SHOULD LARGELY KEEP US DRY WITH
GRADUALLY WARMING TEMPERATURES AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEK.
UNSEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE
WORKWEEK. THE COOLEST MORNINGS LOOK TO BE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY MORNING
WITH MORNING LOWS IN LOW TO MID 30S -- FORECAST APPARENT (OR FEELS
LIKE) TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE LOW 30S AND PERHAPS DIPPING INTO
THE UPPER 20S IN FAR NORTH GEORGIA. FORECAST HIGHS EACH OF THOSE DAYS
WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S IN NORTHEAST GEORGIA TO MID 50S
ELSEWHERE. BY LATE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
WILL MODERATE BACK TO THE 60S/LOW 70S AND LOW
07
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1249 AM EST WED NOV 20 2024
MOSTLY IFR/LIFR CIGS AND VSBYS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THIS MORNING.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BY AROUND 18Z. SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS
AND PATCHES OF DRIZZLE WILL PERSIST THROUGH AROUND DAYBREAK. WINDS
WILL SHIFT TO W TO NW BEHIND A COLD FRONT AS IT SWEEPS ACROSS THE
AREA THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. LIGHT WIND SPEEDS WILL INCREASE MARKEDLY
AFTER AROUND 16Z WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KTS.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM ON CIGS AND VSBYS THROUGH THE MORNING, HIGH FOR OTHER
ELEMENTS.
SEC
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
ATHENS 39 55 36 51 / 0 0 0 0
ATLANTA 40 54 36 50 / 0 0 0 0
BLAIRSVILLE 33 48 29 43 / 0 0 10 0
CARTERSVILLE 37 54 33 50 / 0 0 0 0
COLUMBUS 41 59 38 55 / 0 0 0 0
GAINESVILLE 39 53 36 49 / 0 0 0 0
MACON 40 59 38 55 / 0 0 0 0
ROME 36 55 33 50 / 0 0 0 0
PEACHTREE CITY 37 56 35 51 / 0 0 0 0
VIDALIA 44 61 40 56 / 0 0 0 0
FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...KING
LONG TERM....07
AVIATION...SEC
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