490
FXUS62 KFFC 201807
AFDFFC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
107 PM EST WED NOV 20 2024
..NEW 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM EST WED NOV 20 2024
KEY MESSAGES:
- RAIN WILL END THIS MORNING, WITH DECREASING CLOUDINESS AND MUCH
COOLER AND DRIER AIR FILTERING IN BEHIND A STRONG COLD FRONT.
- LATE AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL FEEL SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER THAN
MORNING TEMPERATURES. BRING A JACKET!
- NEAR FREEZING LOW TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE IN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS
TONIGHT.
CLOUDS CONTINUE TO BLANKET THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. TUESDAY'S
WIDESPREAD RAIN HAS SHIFTED WELL SE OF THE AREA, BUT PATCHES OF LIGHT
RAIN WITH A FEW EMBEDDED HEAVIER SHOWERS ARE PRESENTLY PUSHING
ACROSS THE AREA ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND
ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW PRESSURE. A FEW BRIEF THUNDERSTORMS HAVE ALSO
BEEN NOTED WITH THIS ACTIVITY OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS. MOST OF
THE LIGHTNING HAS BEEN IN-CLOUD, BUT A FEW CLOUD-TO-GROUND STRIKES
HAVE ALSO BEEN NOTED. VISIBILITIES HAVE BEEN ALL OVER THE PLACE
OVERNIGHT IN RAIN AND FOG. PATCHY VISIBILITIES OF LESS THAN A MILE
HAVE BEEN OCCURRING ACROSS PORTIONS OF N AND N CENTRAL GA. CURRENT
TEMPERATURES ARE MOSTLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S WITH SOME UPPER 50S
IN THE NE MOUNTAINS.
AN UPPER LOW OVER N MN WILL SHIFT SE TO THE E OH VALLEY BY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. AT THE SURFACE, A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM MI TO THE W OH
VALLEY AND CENTRAL TX. SEVERAL WEAK SURFACE LOWS WERE LOCATED OVER AL
AND THE FL PANHANDLE. THESE WEAK LOWS WILL CONSOLIDATE AND MOVE E
TODAY AS THE COLD FRONT SWEEPS SE ACROSS THE COUNTY WARNING AREA
(CWA) LATE THIS MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON. SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO
RAPIDLY CLEAR BEHIND THE FRONT, ALTHOUGH SOME WRAP-AROUND CLOUDS ARE
FORECAST TO CLIP N GA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE FRONT WILL USHER IN
BREEZY NW WINDS ALONG WITH SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR BEFORE FRONTAL PASSAGE, WITH PLUMMETING
TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE FRONT. WIND GUSTS BY THIS AFTERNOON WILL
AROUND 25 MPH, WITH SOME GUSTS OVER 35 MPH IN THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS
OF THE NE MOUNTAINS. THESE WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY
BELOW WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA, BUT THE DAY SHIFT WILL MONITOR GUSTS
OVER THE N MOUNTAINS FOR A POSSIBLE SHORT-FUSED ISSUANCE.
TEMPERATURE READINGS LATE THIS AFTERNOON MAY BE A FULL 20 DEGREES
COOLER THAN IN THE MORNING ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. THESE
TEMPERATURES WILL FEEL EVEN COOLER WITH THE WIND. SO, MAKE SURE YOU
BRING A JACKET TO WORK OR SCHOOL, EVEN THOUGH YOU MAY NOT NEED TO
WEAR IT THIS MORNING!
HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF THE EXTREME N TO THE MID 70S ACROSS THE S. AS
MENTIONED, THESE HIGHS WILL BE ACHIEVED PRIOR TO FRONTAL PASSAGE.
LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM NEAR FREEZING IN THE NE MOUNTAINS TO THE
LOWER 40S ACROSS THE SE. WINDS AND DRIER AIR WILL LIKELY PRECLUDE
FROST DEVELOPMENT IN MOST SPOTS, BUT A FEW WIND-PROTECTED LOCATIONS
IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF THE EXTREME N MAY SEE SOME PATCHY FROST
PRIOR TO SUNRISE. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE
LOWER 40S IN THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF THE NE TO NEAR 60 ACROSS THE
SE. WITH W TO NW WINDS REMAINING GUSTY, TEMPERATURES WILL FEEL EVEN
COOLER. /SEC
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM EST WED NOV 20 2024
AT A GLANCE:
- COOLER THAN NORMAL FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE LONG TERM
- INCREASING TEMPS TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEKEND.
A RELATIVELY BENIGN LONG TERM FORECAST IS SETTING UP. AT THE UPPER
LEVELS, WE'LL START SITTING ON THE BACKSIDE OF A STRONG LOW PRESSURE
THAT WILL SLOWLY PUSH OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. AS A RESULT, OUR
FIRST GOOD BLAST OF COLD AIR IS EXPECTED BRINGING DAYTIME HIGHS INTO
THE 50S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS CLOSE TO FREEZING FOR MUCH OF THE CWA.
THIS IS ABOUT 5-10 DEGREES BELOW WHAT WE'D NORMALLY EXPECT FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR.
AS THE LOW EXITS STAGE LEFT, THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW FLATTENS OUT
SIGNIFICANTLY AND WE'LL GRADUALLY SHIFT TO A MORE WESTERLY SURFACE
LEVEL FLOW BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND. TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS SHOULD
BEGIN TO CLIMB BACK INTO MORE COMFORTABLE CONDITIONS WITH HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 40S AND 50S.
THIS TREND USUALLY INDICATES THE APPROACH OF OUR NEXT SYSTEM AND
WHILE THE LONG TERM MODELS DO HINT THAT THAT'S THE CASE, IT IS BEYOND
THE SCOPE OF THIS LONG TERM FORECAST.
VAUGHN
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1257 PM EST WED NOV 20 2024
FOG AND LINGERING SHOWERS HAVE COME TO AN END ACROSS NORTH AND
CENTRAL GEORGIA AS THE PERIOD BEGINS. CEILINGS ARE ALSO STEADILY
IMPROVING. MVFR CEILINGS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE AT AHN AND THE ATL
METRO SITES FROM 18-20Z, WITH VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING THEREAFTER
AS REMAINING CEILINGS SCATTER OUT. CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED AFTER
SUNSET AND THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE NW
THROUGH THE PERIOD BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. WIND SPEEDS THIS
AFTERNOON WILL RANGE FROM 12-18 KTS, WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 22-30 KTS,
DIMINISHING AFTER SUNSET, WITH GUSTS COMING TO AN END BY MIDNIGHT.
WIND SPEEDS WILL INCREASE AND GUSTS WILL RETURN BY MID-MORNING ON
THURSDAY.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
HIGH CONFIDENCE ON ALL ELEMENTS.
KING
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
ATHENS 72 39 54 36 / 0 0 0 0
ATLANTA 70 39 53 37 / 0 0 0 0
BLAIRSVILLE 66 32 47 29 / 10 0 0 10
CARTERSVILLE 70 37 53 34 / 0 0 0 0
COLUMBUS 74 41 59 38 / 0 0 0 0
GAINESVILLE 71 39 52 37 / 0 0 0 0
MACON 75 40 58 38 / 0 0 0 0
ROME 69 37 54 34 / 0 0 0 0
PEACHTREE CITY 72 37 55 35 / 0 0 0 0
VIDALIA 76 44 60 40 / 0 0 0 0
FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...SEC
LONG TERM....VAUGHN
AVIATION...KING
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