142
FXUS62 KFFC 201958
AFDFFC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
258 PM EST WED NOV 20 2024
..AFTERNOON AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SHORT TERM
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 PM EST WED NOV 20 2024
AS A CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER NORTH MINNESOTA CONTINUES TO SHIFT
TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES REGION, TROUGHING ON THE SOUTHEAST SIDE OF
THE LOW CONTINUES TO DIG TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST. MEANWHILE, A COLD
FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM HAS ENTERED NORTH AND
WEST GEORGIA AND WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND INTO TONIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY
RISING INTO THE UPPER 60S IN FAR NORTH GEORGIA TO THE MID 70S IN
EAST-CENTRAL GEORGIA ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR (OR HAVE OCCURRED) AHEAD
OF THE FRONT. NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AT THE LOW LEVELS AND ALOFT WILL
SET UP BEHIND THE FRONT, USHERING IN A SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER AND
DRIER AIRMASS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. CLOUD
COVER CONTINUES TO DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA, AND SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME CLEAR BY THIS EVENING.
FURTHERMORE, WITH A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AT THE SURFACE, THE NW
WINDS TODAY WILL BE QUITE BREEZY, BETWEEN 15-20 MPH WITH GUSTS OF 20-
30 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF FAR NORTH GEORGIA
WILL SEE WIND GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH. WHILE IT APPEARS THAT WINDS WILL
REMAIN BELOW WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA, IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT SOILS
ARE STILL WET IN MANY AREAS FROM YESTERDAY'S RAINFALL, ESPECIALLY IN
PORTIONS OF FAR WEST GEORGIA THAT OBSERVED BETWEEN 2-4 INCHES OF
RAIN. AS SUCH, IT CANNOT BE RULED OUT THAT STRONGEST WIND GUSTS
COULD BRING DOWN ISOLATED TREES. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH AFTER
SUNSET, DROPPING TO 8-12 MPH WITH GUSTS COMING TO AN END AFTER
MIDNIGHT.
OVER THE COURSE OF THE DAY ON THURSDAY, THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW
WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT SOUTHEASTWARD, KEEPING GEORGIA IN
NORTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW ON ITS SOUTHERN PERIPHERY. LOW
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT INTO EARLY TOMORROW MORNING WILL RUN NEAR DAILY
AVERAGES. THAT IS TO SAY, LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE MID TO UPPER
30S IN NORTH GEORGIA AND LOW 40S IN CENTRAL GEORGIA. A FEW LOCATIONS
IN FAR NORTHWEST GEORGIA MAY SEE PATCHY FROST IN THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS. HOWEVER, THE DRY AIRMASS BEHIND THE FRONT AND PERSISTING
WINDS WILL KEEP THE FROST FROM BECOMING WIDESPREAD. HIGHS TOMORROW
ARE FORECAST TO ONLY RISE INTO THE LOW TO MID 50S IN NORTH AND UPPER
50S TO LOW 60S IN CENTRAL GEORGIA. LOCATIONS IN THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF FAR NORTH GEORGIA WILL STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE 40S.
ANOTHER BLUSTERY DAY IS EXPECTED ON THURSDAY, WITH WINDS INCREASING
AFTER SUNRISE AND AGAIN REACHING BETWEEN 15-20 MPH WITH GUSTS OF 25-
35 MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL MAKE TEMPERATURES FEEL EVEN
COOLER, AND COULD ALSO BRING DOWN ISOLATED TREES IN LOCATIONS WHERE
SOILS REMAIN SATURATED. THE GUSTY WINDS TODAY AND TOMORROW COULD
FURTHERMORE SERVE TO DRY OUT 10-HOUR FUELS. TO ACCOUNT FOR THE DRIER
POST-FRONTAL AIRMASS, NBM10PERCENT AND HI-RES SOLUTIONS WERE BLENDED
INTO THE DEWPOINT FORECAST. STILL, THE COOL TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED KEEP RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES OUTSIDE OF CRITICAL FIRE
DANGER THRESHOLDS. RH VALUES ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON WILL RANGE FROM
28-35 PERCENT, BUT WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED IN ENSUING FORECAST
UPDATES IN CASE A FIRE DANGER STATEMENT IS NEEDED.
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING, THE UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE ON
TOWARDS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. AT THAT TIME, A LOBE OF SHORTWAVE
ENERGY WILL ROTATE AROUND THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE LOW. THIS WILL
ALLOW MID-LEVEL MOISTURE TO OVERSPREAD THE APPALACHIANS AND FAR
NORTH GEORGIA DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON FRIDAY. SENSIBLE
IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED TO INCREASED MID-LEVEL CLOUDS
ACROSS FAR NORTH GEORGIA. DUE TO REMAINING DRY AIR AT THE LOW
LEVELS, CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION OF LESS THAN 10 PERCENT ARE BEING
CARRIED IN THE FAR NORTHERN TIER, WITH HIGHER CHANCES EXPECTED TO
REMAIN WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE STATE BORDER.
KING
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 PM EST WED NOV 20 2024
- DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH RAIN CHANCES
RETURNING NEXT WEEK
- COOLER TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY MODERATE HEADING INTO NEXT WEEK
CONTINUED COOL AND BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY WITH
THE STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SITUATED ACROSS THE NEW ENGLAND
STATES AT THE START OF THE PERIOD. AS THIS SYSTEM EXITS OFFSHORE,
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND FLOW ALOFT
BECOMES MORE ZONAL. AS A RESULT, DRY WEATHER PERSISTS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY TRENDING UPWARD THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK. GLOBAL ENSEMBLES HINT AT ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
FORMING EAST OF THE ROCKIES AND POTENTIALLY BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND
OF RAIN TO THE REGION SOMETIME NEXT WEEK. IN THE MEANTIME BE SURE TO
GET OUTSIDE AND ENJOY THE WEATHER.
FRIDAY LOOKS TO BE THE COOLEST DAY WITH FORECAST HIGHS IN THE MID
40S TO MID 50S. FRIDAY NIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE AGAIN FALL BACK
INTO THE 30S. THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD TEMPERATURES
MODERATE BACK INTO THE 60S/LOW 70S FOR DAYTIME HIGHS AND 40S/50S FOR
OVERNIGHT LOWS.
07
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1257 PM EST WED NOV 20 2024
FOG AND LINGERING SHOWERS HAVE COME TO AN END ACROSS NORTH AND
CENTRAL GEORGIA AS THE PERIOD BEGINS. CEILINGS ARE ALSO STEADILY
IMPROVING. MVFR CEILINGS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE AT AHN AND THE ATL
METRO SITES FROM 18-20Z, WITH VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING THEREAFTER
AS REMAINING CEILINGS SCATTER OUT. CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED AFTER
SUNSET AND THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE NW
THROUGH THE PERIOD BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. WIND SPEEDS THIS
AFTERNOON WILL RANGE FROM 12-18 KTS, WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 22-30 KTS,
DIMINISHING AFTER SUNSET, WITH GUSTS COMING TO AN END BY MIDNIGHT.
WIND SPEEDS WILL INCREASE AND GUSTS WILL RETURN BY MID-MORNING ON
THURSDAY.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
HIGH CONFIDENCE ON ALL ELEMENTS.
KING
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
ATHENS 39 55 36 52 / 0 0 0 0
ATLANTA 40 54 36 51 / 0 0 0 0
BLAIRSVILLE 33 47 29 44 / 0 0 10 0
CARTERSVILLE 37 54 34 51 / 0 0 0 0
COLUMBUS 41 59 38 56 / 0 0 0 0
GAINESVILLE 40 53 36 50 / 0 0 0 0
MACON 41 58 37 55 / 0 0 0 0
ROME 37 56 34 52 / 0 0 0 0
PEACHTREE CITY 37 56 35 52 / 0 0 0 0
VIDALIA 44 61 40 57 / 0 0 0 0
FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...KING
LONG TERM....07
AVIATION...KING
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