391
FXUS62 KFFC 210558
AFDFFC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1258 AM EST THU NOV 21 2024
..NEW 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 847 PM EST WED NOV 20 2024
COLD FRONT HAS MOVED THROUGH THE CWA THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD IN OVERNIGHT. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN UP OVERNIGHT
WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS 7-12MPH. GUSTS SHOULD MOSTLY DIMINISH, BUT WILL
PICK BACK UP AGAIN TOMORROW. THE COLDER/DRIER AIR HAS BEEN A LITTLE
SLOWER TO PUSH SE, SO HAVE ADJUSTED THE HOURLY TEMP/DEWS TO REFLECT
THE CURRENT CONDITIONS. OTHERWISE, NO MAJOR CHANGES.
SHORT TERM
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 PM EST WED NOV 20 2024
AS A CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER NORTH MINNESOTA CONTINUES TO SHIFT
TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES REGION, TROUGHING ON THE SOUTHEAST SIDE OF
THE LOW CONTINUES TO DIG TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST. MEANWHILE, A COLD
FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM HAS ENTERED NORTH AND
WEST GEORGIA AND WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND INTO TONIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY
RISING INTO THE UPPER 60S IN FAR NORTH GEORGIA TO THE MID 70S IN
EAST-CENTRAL GEORGIA ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR (OR HAVE OCCURRED) AHEAD
OF THE FRONT. NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AT THE LOW LEVELS AND ALOFT WILL SET
UP BEHIND THE FRONT, USHERING IN A SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER AND DRIER
AIRMASS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. CLOUD COVER
CONTINUES TO DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA, AND
SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME CLEAR BY THIS EVENING.
FURTHERMORE, WITH A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AT THE SURFACE, THE NW
WINDS TODAY WILL BE QUITE BREEZY, BETWEEN 15-20 MPH WITH GUSTS OF 20-
30 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF FAR NORTH GEORGIA
WILL SEE WIND GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH. WHILE IT APPEARS THAT WINDS WILL
REMAIN BELOW WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA, IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT SOILS
ARE STILL WET IN MANY AREAS FROM YESTERDAY'S RAINFALL, ESPECIALLY IN
PORTIONS OF FAR WEST GEORGIA THAT OBSERVED BETWEEN 2-4 INCHES OF
RAIN. AS SUCH, IT CANNOT BE RULED OUT THAT STRONGEST WIND GUSTS COULD
BRING DOWN ISOLATED TREES. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH AFTER
SUNSET, DROPPING TO 8-12 MPH WITH GUSTS COMING TO AN END AFTER
MIDNIGHT.
OVER THE COURSE OF THE DAY ON THURSDAY, THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW
WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT SOUTHEASTWARD, KEEPING GEORGIA IN
NORTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW ON ITS SOUTHERN PERIPHERY. LOW
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT INTO EARLY TOMORROW MORNING WILL RUN NEAR DAILY
AVERAGES. THAT IS TO SAY, LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S
IN NORTH GEORGIA AND LOW 40S IN CENTRAL GEORGIA. A FEW LOCATIONS IN
FAR NORTHWEST GEORGIA MAY SEE PATCHY FROST IN THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS. HOWEVER, THE DRY AIRMASS BEHIND THE FRONT AND PERSISTING WINDS
WILL KEEP THE FROST FROM BECOMING WIDESPREAD. HIGHS TOMORROW ARE
FORECAST TO ONLY RISE INTO THE LOW TO MID 50S IN NORTH AND UPPER 50S
TO LOW 60S IN CENTRAL GEORGIA. LOCATIONS IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF
FAR NORTH GEORGIA WILL STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE 40S.
ANOTHER BLUSTERY DAY IS EXPECTED ON THURSDAY, WITH WINDS INCREASING
AFTER SUNRISE AND AGAIN REACHING BETWEEN 15-20 MPH WITH GUSTS OF 25-
35 MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL MAKE TEMPERATURES FEEL EVEN
COOLER, AND COULD ALSO BRING DOWN ISOLATED TREES IN LOCATIONS WHERE
SOILS REMAIN SATURATED. THE GUSTY WINDS TODAY AND TOMORROW COULD
FURTHERMORE SERVE TO DRY OUT 10-HOUR FUELS. TO ACCOUNT FOR THE DRIER
POST-FRONTAL AIRMASS, NBM10PERCENT AND HI-RES SOLUTIONS WERE BLENDED
INTO THE DEWPOINT FORECAST. STILL, THE COOL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
KEEP RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES OUTSIDE OF CRITICAL FIRE DANGER
THRESHOLDS. RH VALUES ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON WILL RANGE FROM 28-35
PERCENT, BUT WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED IN ENSUING FORECAST UPDATES IN
CASE A FIRE DANGER STATEMENT IS NEEDED.
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING, THE UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE ON
TOWARDS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. AT THAT TIME, A LOBE OF SHORTWAVE
ENERGY WILL ROTATE AROUND THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE LOW. THIS WILL
ALLOW MID-LEVEL MOISTURE TO OVERSPREAD THE APPALACHIANS AND FAR NORTH
GEORGIA DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON FRIDAY. SENSIBLE IMPACTS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED TO INCREASED MID-LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS FAR
NORTH GEORGIA. DUE TO REMAINING DRY AIR AT THE LOW LEVELS, CHANCES
FOR PRECIPITATION OF LESS THAN 10 PERCENT ARE BEING CARRIED IN THE
FAR NORTHERN TIER, WITH HIGHER CHANCES EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL TO THE
NORTH OF THE STATE BORDER.
KING
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 PM EST WED NOV 20 2024
- DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH RAIN CHANCES
RETURNING NEXT WEEK
- COOLER TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY MODERATE HEADING INTO NEXT WEEK
CONTINUED COOL AND BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY WITH
THE STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SITUATED ACROSS THE NEW ENGLAND
STATES AT THE START OF THE PERIOD. AS THIS SYSTEM EXITS OFFSHORE,
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND FLOW ALOFT
BECOMES MORE ZONAL. AS A RESULT, DRY WEATHER PERSISTS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY TRENDING UPWARD THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK. GLOBAL ENSEMBLES HINT AT ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
FORMING EAST OF THE ROCKIES AND POTENTIALLY BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND
OF RAIN TO THE REGION SOMETIME NEXT WEEK. IN THE MEANTIME BE SURE TO
GET OUTSIDE AND ENJOY THE WEATHER.
FRIDAY LOOKS TO BE THE COOLEST DAY WITH FORECAST HIGHS IN THE MID
40S TO MID 50S. FRIDAY NIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE AGAIN FALL BACK
INTO THE 30S. THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD TEMPERATURES
MODERATE BACK INTO THE 60S/LOW 70S FOR DAYTIME HIGHS AND 40S/50S FOR
OVERNIGHT LOWS.
07
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1253 AM EST THU NOV 21 2024
VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. WNW-NW WINDS WILL CONTINUE. MOST OF THE THE
GUSTINESS HAS DIMINISHED, BUT EXPECT WIND SPEEDS AND GUSTS TO RETURN
BY MID TO LATE MORNING WITH SPEEDS SIMILAR TO WEDNESDAY.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
HIGH CONFIDENCE ALL ELEMENTS.
SEC
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
ATHENS 36 52 36 60 / 0 0 0 0
ATLANTA 36 51 36 57 / 0 0 0 0
BLAIRSVILLE 29 44 31 54 / 10 0 0 0
CARTERSVILLE 34 51 32 57 / 0 0 0 0
COLUMBUS 38 56 36 62 / 0 0 0 0
GAINESVILLE 36 50 38 59 / 0 0 0 0
MACON 37 55 36 62 / 0 0 0 0
ROME 34 52 33 57 / 0 0 0 0
PEACHTREE CITY 35 52 34 59 / 0 0 0 0
VIDALIA 40 57 38 62 / 0 0 0 0
FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...NLISTEMAA
LONG TERM....07
AVIATION...SEC
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