322
FXUS62 KFFC 230910
AFDFFC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
410 AM EST SAT NOV 23 2024
..MORNING AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 340 AM EST SAT NOV 23 2024
- DRY WEATHER THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH UNSEASONABLY WARM
TEMPS MONDAY
- INCREASING CHANCES FOR A RAINY THANKSGIVING
- MUCH COOLER NEXT WEEKEND
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM EST SAT NOV 23 2024
NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IMPACTS OR FORECAST CONCERNS EXPECTED IN
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.
STRATOCU MADE IT INTO ATL METRO EARLY THIS MORNING BUT APPEARS TO
BE RETREATING AS OF THIS WRITING. CLOUDS SHOULD BREAK UP BY MID-
MORNING WITH NEARLY SUNNY SKIES BY MIDDAY AND MORE SEASONABLE
DAYTIME TEMPS. ONE MORE COOL NIGHT TONIGHT WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF
PATCHY FROST, THEN CONTINUED WARMING SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH DRY
CONDITIONS.
SNELSON
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM EST SAT NOV 23 2024
MOVING INTO MONDAY AND THE START OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST, MID-
TO- UPPER FLOW IS PROGGED TO HAVE BECOME MORE NEARLY QUASI-ZONAL
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST, AND IS LIKELY TO REMAIN IN THIS STATE FOR
SEVERAL DAYS. SURFACE FEATURES WILL DO MUCH OF THE HEAVY LIFTING
AS FAR AS ANY CHANGES TO OUR SENSIBLE WEATHER. BY LATE MONDAY, A
BROAD COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM A STRONG SURFACE LOW TREKKING
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL BE MAKING ITS WAY INTO NORTHWEST
GEORGIA. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL INCREASE FOR AREAS NORTH OF A
LINE EXTENDING FROM COLUMBUS TO MACON THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING,
WITH THE BEST FRONTAL FORCING FIZZLING OUT BEFORE COMPLETELY
CLEARING THE FORECAST AREA. AS IT STANDS, RAINFALL TOTALS DON'T
LOOK TO BREAK A QUARTER OF AN INCH ON TUESDAY, AND AREAS SOUTH OF
THE ATLANTA METRO ARE UNLIKELY TO SEE MEANINGFUL ACCUMULATIONS AT
ALL.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN AT THE SURFACE TO MORE PROPERLY DRY
THINGS OUT FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, BUT
ONLY BRIEFLY AS RAIN CHANCES LOOK TO FILTER IN ONCE AGAIN ON
THANKSGIVING DAY. GLOBAL MODELS HAVE COME INTO GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A
LOBE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP AND TREK ACROSS THE MID SOUTH
TOWARD THE MID ATLANTIC FOR THE BETTER PART OF THE DAY THURSDAY.
GIVEN OUR PROXIMITY TO THE PARENT LOW AND STRONGER DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE, RAINFALL TOTALS ARE LIKELY TO BE HIGHER THAN ON TUESDAY,
AND OVER A BROADER AREA. BY THE TIME THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
CLEARS SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON, A GRADIENT IN QPF
IS LIKELY TO HAVE SET UP: AS MUCH AS 1-1.5" FOR AREAS ALONG AND
NORTH OF THE I-20/I-85 CONNECTOR, AND 0.25-0.75" FOR AREA FURTHER
SOUTH. THE AMOUNTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE AS THIS EVENT MOVES INTO
THE LENS OF THE SHORT TERM AND HIRES GUIDANCE, BUT IT LOOKS LIKE A
RAIN JACKET MAY BE NECESSARY FOR ANY THANKSGIVING FESTIVITIES.
BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY POST-FRONT FRIDAY, WITH TIGHTLY PACKED
ISOBARS EVIDENT IN FORECAST SURFACE ANALYSES. COMPARABLY MUCH DRIER
AIR IS USHERED IN ON THE HEELS OF THE FRONT TO CARRY US INTO THE
WEEKEND, WITH OUR CLEAR AND VERY COOL AIRMASS BEING REINFORCED BY
THE EASTERN FRINGES OF YET ANOTHER SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM.
WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE POTENTIAL FOR ANY LINGERING MOISTURE
ACROSS NORTHEAST GEORGIA EARLY SATURDAY MORNING, AS TEMPERATURES ARE
LIKELY TO BE SUBFREEZING DURING THIS WINDOW.
MONDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE EXTENDED BY FAR, WITH HIGHS IN
THE UPPER-60S TO MID-70S -- SOME 7-12 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE FOR LATE
NOVEMBER. FROM THEN ON, IT WILL BE A TALE OF PRE- AND POST-
THANKSGIVING FRONT TEMPERATURES. TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WILL SEE
HIGHS IN THE MID-50S TO 60S, WHILE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL REACH
INTO JUST THE MID-40S TO 50S (!). LOWS WILL FLIP-FLOP BETWEEN THE
MID-30S TO 40S AND LOWER-40S TO 50S EACH DAY MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY,
BEFORE PLUMMETING INTO THE MID-20S TO 30S FOLLOWING THE STRONGER
FRONTAL PASSAGE THURSDAY.
96
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1233 AM EST SAT NOV 23 2024
SOME MVFR CIGS AROUND 2500-3000FT THIS MORNING OVER NORTHERN
GEORGIA PUSHING INTO ATL METRO AIRPORTS BUT SHOULD DISSIPATE AFTER
14Z. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS WITH SKC SKIES. NW SFC WINDS 5-8KTS
INCREASING TO 8-12KTS WITH SOME GUSTS 20-22KTS AFTER 14Z
DECREASING AROUND SUNSET TO 3-6KTS.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
HIGH CONFIDENCE ON ALL ELEMENTS.
SNELSON
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
ATHENS 62 36 67 40 / 0 0 0 0
ATLANTA 57 39 64 45 / 0 0 0 0
BLAIRSVILLE 54 33 64 38 / 0 0 0 0
CARTERSVILLE 57 33 64 42 / 0 0 0 0
COLUMBUS 63 38 67 44 / 0 0 0 0
GAINESVILLE 61 38 65 43 / 0 0 0 0
MACON 62 36 67 40 / 0 0 0 0
ROME 58 33 64 40 / 0 0 0 0
PEACHTREE CITY 60 35 65 41 / 0 0 0 0
VIDALIA 63 39 68 43 / 0 0 0 0
FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...SNELSON
LONG TERM....96
AVIATION...SNELSON
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