081
FXUS62 KFFC 251744
AFDFFC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1244 PM EST SAT JAN 25 2025
..NEW 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 431 AM EST SAT JAN 25 2025
KEY MESSAGES:
- TEMPERATURES SLOWLY CLIMBING TO BECOME CLOSER TO NORMAL FOR
JANUARY.
- A FEW SHOWERS AND DRIZZLE BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE AREA.
FORECAST:
WEAK MID LEVEL RIDGING DOWNSTREAM OF A STALLING, AND EXTREMELY
POSITIVELY TILTED, TROUGH WILL BRING GRADUALLY WARMING TEMPERATURE
TO SOMETHING A BIT CLOSER TO NORMAL FOR JANUARY IN GEORGIA. HIGHS
IN THE MID 40S CLIMB TO THE LOW 50S TO NEAR 60 BY SUNDAY. DRY AIR
WILL MEAN DIURNALLY DRIVEN LOWS REMAIN BELOW FREEZING.
INCREASING MOISTURE FROM WEAK W/SW FLOW WILL BEGIN TO RAISE
DEWPOINTS AS WE MOVE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. POPS BEGIN TO ALSO
INCREASE NEAR THE END OF THE SHORT-TERM IN NORTHWEST GA FOR LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS. AT THIS TIME, WINTRY PRECIPITATION CHANCES REMAIN LOW
WITH WETBULBS ABOVE FREEZING FOR ALL BUT THE PEAKS OF MOUNTAINS.
UNCERTAINTY IN THE START TIME OF ANY POPS AFTER SUNDAY AFTERNOON
REMAINS HIGH GIVEN THE SLOW MOVING NATURE OF ANY SFC FEATURE THAT
FORMS AND SUPPORT FROM THE SHIFTING LARGER SCALE TROUGH. OVERALL
SHOULD BE MINIMALLY IMPACTFUL.
SM
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 431 AM EST SAT JAN 25 2025
KEY MESSAGES:
- COOL RAIN POSSIBLE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. SOME SNOW MAY MIX IN AT
TIMES IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF NORTH GA. NO SIGNIFICANT
ACCUMULATION EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S ON MONDAY. RAIN TOTALS WILL GENERALLY
BE UNDER HALF AN INCH.
- MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND A BIT WARMER THROUGH THE MID WEEK AS
SUBTROPICAL AIRMASS IS ABLE TO MOVE INTO PORTIONS OF THE
AREA. HIGHS IN THE 60S AND POSSIBLY EVEN SOME 70S IN CENTRAL
GEORGIA WILL BE POSSIBLE, DEPENDENT ON COVERAGE OF CLOUDS AND
RAIN.
- BIT OF A WETTER TREND ACROSS THE ENSEMBLES ON WEDNESDAY. RAIN
CHANCES HAVE INCREASED, BUT THE PROBABILITIES ARE MORE
REPRESENTATIVE OF UNCERTAINTY THAN ACTUAL COVERAGE.
FORECAST:
SURFACE HIGH LOCATED OVER THE FORECAST AREA ON SUNDAY WILL ALLOW FOR
MOISTURE TO MOVE THROUGH THE WESTERN GULF AND INTO THE US SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY. A QUICK HITTING SHORTWAVE WITHIN THE POLAR JET
WILL PROVIDE FOR SOME ENHANCEMENT OVER THE SOUTHEAST WHICH SHOULD
PROVIDE FOR SOME BROAD LIFT, WITH THE REST OF THE HEAVY LIFTING FOR
LIFT BEING DONE ISENTROPICALLY AND THE MOISTURE IS DRAWN INTO THE
AREA. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME VERY LIGHT RAIN TO OVERSPREAD THE CWA
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO THE DAY ON MONDAY, SLOWLY SQUEEZED TO THE
SOUTH AS A FRONT IS PUSHED INTO THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY. TOTAL RAIN
AMOUNTS SHOULD REMAIN UNDER HALF AN INCH. A FEW SNOWFLAKES MAY BE
ABLE TO MIX IN UP IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF NORTHERN GEORGIA
DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. NO SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS
EXPECTED.
BROAD TROUGH REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS
NEXT WEEK, BUT A DIFFERENCE THIS TIME COMPARED TO THE LAST 2 WEEKS
IS IT SHOULD BE PARKED A BIT FURTHER TO THE NORTH. THIS SHOULD ACT
TO KEEP THE COLD AIR AT BAY. A FEW QUICK HITTING SHORTWAVES WILL
SWING BY, WITH A NOTABLE ONE ON TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY THAT
MAY ALLOW FOR SOME RAINFALL AS MOISTURE IS DRAWN INTO THE SYSTEM.
TO GET A BIT NERDY FOR A SECOND - K-MEAN CLUSTER ANALYSIS WITH 4
GROUPS SHOWS THAT THE TIMING OF THE SHORTWAVE AND THE AMPLITUDE
MATTER QUITE A BIT WITH REGARDS TO RAIN CHANCES. ENSEMBLE RUNS
WITH A SLIGHTLY DEEPER WAVE ARE ABLE TO MORE EASILY TAP INTO
SUBTROPICAL AIRMASS AND BRING RAIN TO THE AREA, UNSURPRISINGLY.
ABOUT 40% OF RUNS ARE ABLE TO DO THIS, WHICH IS REPRESENTATIVE OF
THE POP CHANCES NOW IN PLACE ON TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
THUNDER WOULD NOT BE EXPECTED WITH THIS RAIN AT THIS TIME. THINGS
GET A BIT MORE UNCERTAIN AFTER THIS, AS MODEL ENSEMBLES ARE QUITE
SPREAD ON HOW THEY HANDLE THE EJECTION OF A CUT OFF LOW OVER
CALIFORNIA. BUT RAIN CHANCES WILL LIKELY BE ON THE INCREASE AGAIN
GOING INTO THE WEEKEND.
THE ONLY OTHER STORY IS THE TEMPERATURES, AND THE GOOD NEWS IS WE
ARE TALKING ABOUT THE OPPOSITE OF COLD. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE FROM MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HIGHS MONDAY WILL BE LIMITED
A BIT BY RAIN AND CLOUD COVER, WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S, BUT SHOULD
WARM TUESDAY INTO THE UPPER 50S AND 60S. BY WEDNESDAY, HIGH TEMPS
WILL BE IN THE 60S AND POSSIBLY EVEN SOME 70S IN CENTRAL GEORGIA.
THESE MAY END UP BEING A BIT OVERDONE DEPENDING ON WHETHER OR NOT
THE CURRENT RAIN FORECAST PLAYS OUT, BUT EITHER WAY IT WILL BE ABOVE
AVERAGE GIVEN THE WARMER AIRMASS IN PLACE. FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY, BUT THIS IS NOT EXPECTED
TO BE AN ARCTIC AIRMASS THAT MOVES INTO THE AREA, KEEPING
TEMPERATURES MORE SEASONABLE.
LUSK
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1242 PM EST SAT JAN 25 2025
LIGHT NW WINDS AT LESS THAN 8KTS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE DAY BECOMING
CALM AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT. A PERIOD OF FEW250 OBS ARE POSSIBLE
THIS AFTERNOON, BUT VFR CIGS/VIS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF
THE TAF CYCLE.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
HIGH ON ALL ELEMENTS.
VAUGHN
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
ATHENS 50 27 53 36 / 0 0 0 70
ATLANTA 48 29 51 38 / 0 0 0 80
BLAIRSVILLE 46 24 47 29 / 0 0 0 60
CARTERSVILLE 49 27 49 34 / 0 0 0 80
COLUMBUS 51 29 57 39 / 0 0 0 70
GAINESVILLE 48 29 51 35 / 0 0 0 60
MACON 50 26 57 38 / 0 0 0 60
ROME 50 25 49 33 / 0 0 0 80
PEACHTREE CITY 50 27 53 36 / 0 0 0 80
VIDALIA 52 29 57 38 / 0 0 0 20
FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...SM
LONG TERM....LUSK
AVIATION...VAUGHN
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