017
FXUS62 KFFC 251936
AFDFFC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
236 PM EST SAT JAN 25 2025
..AFTERNOON AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SHORT TERM
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 234 PM EST SAT JAN 25 2025
AT A GLANCE:
- A WARMING TREND WILL START TODAY.
- A WEAK SYSTEM TOMORROW WILL BRING SOME RAIN TO CENTRAL GA.
THE WORST OF THE COLD IS OVER. FOR NOW. UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS SET TO
BECOME ZONAL TODAY AND INTO TOMORROW WITH HIGH PRESSURE SETTING UP
JUST OFF THE COAST. THIS WILL HELP TO PUSH OFF THE COLD AIR THAT
WE'VE BEEN DEALING WITH THE PAST WEEK AS SW FLOW INJECTS THE
MOISTURE INTO THE AREA. DAYTIME HIGHS T'S TODAY AND TOMORROW WILL BE
IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S. OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT WILL DIP BELOW
FREEZING ONE FINAL TIME FOR THE FORESEEABLE FORECAST.
THE WARMING TREND SHOULD LAST INTO NEXT WEEK, BUT WITH IT COMES A
BRIEF SHOT OF RAIN AS A WEAK IMPULSE SHUDDERS THROUGH THE UPPER
LEVELS. RAIN WILL MOVE IN TOMORROW NIGHT AFTER 7PM AND CONTINUE
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. BY LATE AFTERNOON MONDAY, THE SYSTEM
WILL HAVE PUSHED OFF TO THE EAST. GIVEN HOW DRY CONDITIONS ARE
RIGHT NOW AND GOING INTO TOMORROW, RAINFALL TOTALS ARE EXPECTED TO
BE LESS THAN A QUARTER OF AN INCH, ALTHOUGH SOME LOCALLY HIGHER
TOTALS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE BORDER WITH AL.
VAUGHN
LONG TERM
(MONDAY MORNING THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 234 PM EST SAT JAN 25 2025
KEY MESSAGES:
- MILD TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE RULE.
- A SOMEWHAT NEBULOUS MID-/UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN WILL BE THE
DRIVER OF RAIN CHANCES.
FORECAST:
AFTER A DRY AND MILD TUESDAY, THE FIRST OPPORTUNITY FOR RAIN SHOWERS
IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD LOOKS TO BE WEDNESDAY. A MURKY MID-
/UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST, AS
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE AND CLUSTER ANALYSIS INDICATE A BROAD TROUGH OVER
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS -- WITH THE SOUTHEAST AT THE BASE OF
THIS TROUGH, WHERE THE FLOW WILL BE MORE QUASI-ZONAL -- WHILE A CUT-
OFF LOW SPINS OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. THE IMPETUS FOR RAIN
SHOWERS WILL BE A SHORTWAVE TROUGH -- A FEATURE THAT CAN BE
DIFFICULT FOR GLOBAL MODELS TO RESOLVE A FEW DAYS OUT. FOR THE SAKE
OF FORECAST CONTINUITY, HAVE CAPPED POPS AT ~40% ON WEDNESDAY. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THUNDER IS STILL NEAR-ZERO, AS INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY
NOT BE REALIZED DUE TO UNIMPRESSIVE THERMODYNAMICS AND KINEMATICS.
ENSEMBLE SPREAD IS DECENTLY HIGH REGARDING THE EVOLUTION OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED MID-/UPPER-LEVEL FEATURES AT THE END OF THE WEEK --
SPECIFICALLY THE CUT-OFF LOW, AS FAR AS IMPACTS GO ACROSS NORTH AND
CENTRAL GEORGIA. CUT-OFF LOWS ARE SOMEWHAT NEBULOUS FEATURES AND
DRIFT ALONG WITH THE ENVIRONMENTAL FLOW, AND AS SUCH ARE ANOTHER
SOMEWHAT DIFFICULT FEATURE FOR GLOBAL MODELS TO DEPICT. ENSEMBLE
MEANS PAINT A GENERAL PICTURE OF THE CUT-OFF LOW OVER THE FOUR
CORNERS LATE THURSDAY NIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY MORNING, WITH IT MEANDERING
EAST-NORTHEAST OVER THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS FRIDAY
NIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY MORNING AND BECOMING AN OPEN WAVE. THE
AMPLITUDE OF THIS WAVE AND THE DEGREE TO WHICH IT INTERACTS WITH
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE WILL DETERMINE HOW RAIN SHOWERS PLAY OUT
(TIMING, COVERAGE, INTENSITY) ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THE OVERALL
SYNOPTIC PATTERN, AS IT STANDS NOW, SUPPORTS CHANCE POPS (30% TO
50%). IT IS POSSIBLE (CURRENTLY LESS THAN A 20% CHANCE) THAT SOME
FROZEN PRECIP COULD MIX WITH RAIN SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS ON FRIDAY
MORNING. IMPACTS ARE NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
GLANCING BLOWS FROM THE MID-/UPPER-LEVEL WAVES WILL PROMOTE MILD
TEMPERATURES, AS A LACK OF TRUE COLD FRONT PASSAGES WILL KEEP COLD
AIR WITH CANADIAN/ARCTIC ORIGINS WELL TO OUR NORTH.
MARTIN
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1242 PM EST SAT JAN 25 2025
LIGHT NW WINDS AT LESS THAN 8KTS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE DAY BECOMING
CALM AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT. A PERIOD OF FEW250 OBS ARE POSSIBLE
THIS AFTERNOON, BUT VFR CIGS/VIS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF
THE TAF CYCLE.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
HIGH ON ALL ELEMENTS.
VAUGHN
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
ATHENS 27 54 38 51 / 0 0 70 50
ATLANTA 31 53 39 51 / 0 0 80 60
BLAIRSVILLE 25 48 32 49 / 0 0 60 30
CARTERSVILLE 28 51 36 51 / 0 0 80 40
COLUMBUS 30 58 41 53 / 0 0 70 80
GAINESVILLE 30 52 38 51 / 0 0 60 40
MACON 27 58 39 53 / 0 0 60 80
ROME 26 50 35 51 / 0 0 80 30
PEACHTREE CITY 28 55 39 51 / 0 0 80 70
VIDALIA 31 59 40 56 / 0 0 20 50
FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...VAUGHN
LONG TERM....MARTIN
AVIATION...VAUGHN
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