943
FXUS62 KFFC 261805 AAA
AFDFFC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
105 PM EST SUN JAN 26 2025
..UPDATED WITH CORRECT LONG TERM DISCUSSION
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 100 PM EST SUN JAN 26 2025
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 AM EST SUN JAN 26 2025
KEY MESSAGES:
- ONE LAST SUPER COLD MORNING BEFORE THE WARM UP REALLY TAKES
OFF. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE IN THE 50S AND 60S ACROSS MOST OF
NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA.
- SHOWERS AND RAIN MOVE IN TONIGHT, LIKELY AROUND OR JUST AFTER
MIDNIGHT. OVERALL AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LIGHT, GENERALLY AROUND
HALF AN INCH. SOME SNOWFLAKES COULD MIX INTO THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF NORTH GEORGIA DURING THE MORNING HOURS, BUT NO
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. RAIN WILL END FROM NORTH TO SOUTH
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
FORECAST:
ANOTHER CHILLY START TO THE MORNING TODAY WITH TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE AREA IN THE 20S. TODAY WILL BE THE WARMEST IN QUITE A
BIT AS MOISTURE SOLELY FILTERS BACK INTO THE AREA. HIGHS WILL BE
IN THE 50S AND 60S.
CLOUD COVER IS BEGINNING TO SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA AS MOISTURE IS
DRAWN UP AROUND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN GOM AND LIFTED
ISENTROPICALLY UNDERNEATH A BROAD ZONAL JET. SHORTWAVE DIGGING
THROUGH THE POLAR JET INTO THE GREAT PLAINS MOVING QUICKLY TO THE
SOUTH WILL PROVIDE FOR ENHANCEMENT OF JET STREAK WHERE SOUTHEAST
WILL BE UNDER RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION. SHOWERS SHOULD DEVELOP
INITIALLY ACROSS ARKLATEX AND SPREAD EASTWARD THROUGH THE EVENING,
ARRIVING IN THE CWA AROUND MIDNIGHT. LIGHT RAIN WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE NIGHT AND INTO THE MORNING HOURS. SHORTWAVE WILL
APPROACH THE AREA QUICKLY AND HELP PUSH RAIN TO THE SOUTH THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD BE GENERALLY AROUND
HALF AN INCH. A FEW SNOWFLAKES COULD MIX INTO THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF NORTH GEORGIA DURING THE MORNING HOURS, BUT NO
ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED.
LUSK
LONG TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 AM EST SUN JAN 26 2025
KEY MESSAGES:
- TEMPERATURES MILD TO WARM THROUGH THE PERIOD.
- HIGH UNCERTAINTY WEDNESDAY ONWARD FOR
PRECIPITATION/THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY WARM FOR JANUARY ACROSS GEORGIA THROUGH
THE LONG TERM OUTLOOK. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO EVEN LOW 70S WILL
BE POSSIBLE BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
THE MAIN CAVEAT TO TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK WILL BE
THE REALIZATION AND EVOLUTION OF THE CUT OFF LOW OVER THE
SOUTHWEST. AS USUAL, MODELS ARE STRUGGLING WITH THE CUT OFF LOW
UNDERCUTTING THE POLAR JET RIDGE AND ANY SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROUNDING
THE JET. OUR FIRST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE ASSOCIATED
WITH A QUICK WAVE OF ENERGY DESCENDING FROM THE NORTHWEST SOMETIME
WEDNESDAY. 500MB CLUSTER ANALYSIS INDICATES AS MUCH AS A 24 HR
RANGE FOR THE ARRIVAL OF THE ENERGY. THE CHALLENGE WITH THIS THEN
BECOMES HOW THE ENERGY PHASES UP WITH THE LARGER SCALE TROUGH
GENERALLY OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. SLOWER ENERGY TRANSPORT SEEMS TO
COINCIDE WITH DEEPER SW FLOW, AND THUS MOISTURE
TRANSPORT/PRECIPITATION. SHOULD THE ENERGY MOVE THROUGH EARLIER,
MOISTURE FLOW WILL BE MORE SHALLOW AND POPS WILL BE LOWER AND
RELEGATED FURTHER NORTHWARD. POPS IN THE LONGTERM WILL BE LESS AN
INDICATOR OF COVERAGE AND MORE AN INDICATOR OF THE CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION TO EVEN DEVELOP.
ONCE THIS SHORTWAVE PROGRESSES THROUGH, THE QUESTION THEN BECOMES
"WHEN DOES THE CUTOFF LOW REJOIN THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW?". AT THIS
TIME, GEFS SEEMS TO BE THE SLOWEST TO TRANSPORT THE POTENTIAL
VORTICITY SIGNATURE. GIVEN PREVIOUS EXPERIENCE, THESE SORTS OF
SYSTEMS TEND TO MOVE EVEN SLOWER THAN ANYONE WOULD EXPECT.
THEREFORE WILL LIKELY LEAN MORE TOWARDS THE GEFS SOLUTIONS THAN
ENS OR GEPS. ALL OF THAT SAID, DEPENDING ON HOW THE ENERGY ALIGNS
WITH ANY TROUGH MOVING THROUGH SOME INTENSE SYNOPTIC FORCING COULD
DEVELOP. WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE OUT IN THE LONG TERM FOR ANY
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
SM
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1225 PM EST SUN JAN 26 2025
A BKN060 DECK WILL SETTLE IN FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON. AFTER
00Z SOME VCSH WILL BE LIKELY BEFORE SHRA WILL BECOME PREVAILING
AFTER 04Z. AFTER 08Z THE IFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE AS RAIN EASES UP.
HELD CIGS IFR BUT GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A FEW OBS OF LIFR ARE POSSIBLE.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
LOW TO MEDIUM ON LIFR.
HIGH ON ALL ELEMENTS.
VAUGHN
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
ATHENS 37 51 33 59 / 90 50 0 0
ATLANTA 39 49 33 57 / 100 60 0 0
BLAIRSVILLE 33 47 28 53 / 90 30 0 0
CARTERSVILLE 36 49 30 56 / 100 30 0 0
COLUMBUS 41 52 37 60 / 90 80 10 0
GAINESVILLE 38 49 33 56 / 90 40 0 0
MACON 39 52 36 61 / 80 90 10 0
ROME 36 49 28 57 / 100 20 0 0
PEACHTREE CITY 39 49 33 58 / 100 70 0 0
VIDALIA 39 55 41 63 / 30 60 10 0
FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...LUSK
LONG TERM....SM
AVIATION...VAUGHN
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