845
FXUS62 KFFC 270611
AFDFFC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
111 AM EST MON JAN 27 2025
..NEW 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION
SHORT TERM
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 237 PM EST SUN JAN 26 2025
AT A GLANCE:
- A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BRING LESS THAN A QUARTER INCH OF
RAIN BEGINNING TONIGHT AND GOING INTO TOMORROW.
- THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED.
TEMPERATURES HAVE FINALLY HAD A CHANCE TO REBOUND AND THIS
MORNING'S LOWS SHOULD PUT COLD WEATHER BEHIND US FOR A LITTLE
WHILE. THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD FEEL LIKE A PLEASANT EARLY SPRING DAY
WITH INCREASING CLOUDS AND A HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO
UPPER 50S.
RAIN WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD AFTER MIDNIGHT WHICH WILL HELP
MODERATE OVERNIGHT LOWS TO THE 40S RATHER THAN FREEZING
TEMPERATURES THAT WE'VE SEEN FOR NEARLY THE PAST WEEK. RAIN WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING COMMUTE TOMORROW AND CLEAR THE AREA
BY LATE AFTERNOON. RAINFALL TOTALS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LESS THAN
HALF OF AN INCH.
VAUGHN
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 237 PM EST SUN JAN 26 2025
KEY MESSAGES:
- MILD TO WARM TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL.
- RAIN CHANCES WILL BE DRIVEN BY A MID-/UPPER-LEVEL
PATTERN CHARACTERIZED BY UNPREDICTABILITY/UNCERTAINTY.
FORECAST:
WHILE THE FORECAST FOR TUESDAY IS UNCHANGED -- THAT IS, DRY --
THE QUESTION ON WEDNESDAY IS WHETHER OR NOT NORTH AND CENTRAL
GEORGIA WILL SEE ANY RAINFALL COURTESY OF A DISTURBANCE ALOFT. A
MURKY QUASI-ZONAL/WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE
OVER THE SOUTHEAST, WHILE A CUT-OFF LOW SPINS OVER THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST AND A SHORTWAVE TROUGH SWINGS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND
NORTHEAST. THE PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGE DECREASED POPS ON
WEDNESDAY TO A SLIGHT CHANCE (25% OR LOWER) AND I AM KEEPING WITH
THAT THINKING FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE, AS LOW-END POPS ARE
APPROPRIATE GIVEN LOW PREDICTABILITY WITH THIS SYNOPTIC SETUP.
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE GENERALLY DEPICTS THE AFOREMENTIONED CUT-OFF
LOW MEANDERING FROM THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS THURSDAY
NIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY MORNING AND BECOMING AN OPEN WAVE ON FRIDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING AS IT MIGRATES EAST-NORTHEAST OVER THE CENTRAL
MS RIVER VALLEY. THAT SAID, ENSEMBLE SPREAD REMAINS HIGH REGARDING
THE EVOLUTION OF THE CUT-OFF LOW, AS THESE FEATURES DRIFT ALONG
WITH THE ENVIRONMENTAL FLOW AND ARE A SOMEWHAT DIFFICULT FEATURE
FOR GLOBAL MODELS TO HANDLE. SOUTHERLY FLOW AND MOISTURE RETURN
WILL COMMENCE AS A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS IN RESPONSE TO THE WAVE
ALOFT, SUPPORTING CHANCE POPS (25% TO 50%) ACROSS A PORTION OF THE
CWA ON FRIDAY. CHANCE POPS CONTINUE ON SATURDAY AS WELL, AS THE
WAVE TRAVERSES THE OH/TN RIVER VALLEYS AND SOUTHEAST. FACTORS LIKE
THE AMPLITUDE OF THE WAVE, WHERE EXACTLY THE SURFACE LOW
DEVELOPS, AND THE DEGREE TO WHICH THESE FEATURES INTERACT WITH THE
MOISTURE WILL DETERMINE HOW EXACTLY PRECIPITATION PLAYS OUT
(TIMING, COVERAGE, INTENSITY) ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THE CURRENT
QPF IS WIDESPREAD 0.25" TO 1.25" FROM EARLY FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT. THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS STILL LOOKS QUITE
LOW AT THIS TIME, BUT AS THE PREVIOUS LONG-TERM FORECASTER
MENTIONED IN THEIR DISCUSSION, MORE INTENSE SYNOPTIC FORCING COULD
INCREASE THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS.
A LACK OF TRUE COLD FRONT PASSAGES WITH THIS SYNOPTIC SETUP WILL
KEEP COLD AIR WITH CANADIAN/ARCTIC ORIGINS WELL TO OUR NORTH,
PROMOTING MILD TO WARM TEMPERATURES.
MARTIN
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 101 AM EST MON JAN 27 2025
SHRA IS MOVING INTO ALL TAF SITES AS OF 06Z. THIS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH MORNING HOURS. SHRA SHOULD END BY 16-18Z TODAY. MVFR CIGS
PROGGED TO MOVE INTO TAF SITES BY 08Z, WITH IFR CIGS BY 11Z. IFR
CIGS EXPECTED TO REMAIN THROUGH AFTERNOON, CLEARING BY 00Z-02Z
TONIGHT. WINDS WILL BE ON WEST SIDE THROUGH PERIOD, BECOMING MORE
NW BY THE EVENING. WINDS WILL BE 4-8 KTS.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
HIGH ALL ELEMENTS.
LUSK
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
ATHENS 51 31 57 39 / 70 0 0 0
ATLANTA 52 32 56 40 / 70 0 0 0
BLAIRSVILLE 48 26 52 33 / 40 0 0 0
CARTERSVILLE 51 28 55 36 / 40 0 0 0
COLUMBUS 54 34 60 38 / 90 0 0 0
GAINESVILLE 50 32 55 39 / 50 0 0 0
MACON 53 34 61 38 / 90 0 0 0
ROME 51 26 56 35 / 40 0 0 0
PEACHTREE CITY 52 31 57 37 / 80 0 0 0
VIDALIA 56 39 62 40 / 70 20 0 0
FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...VAUGHN
LONG TERM....MARTIN
AVIATION...LUSK
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