918
FXUS62 KFFC 270819
AFDFFC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
319 AM EST MON JAN 27 2025
..MORNING AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 AM EST MON JAN 27 2025
KEY MESSAGES:
- RAIN HAS OVERSPREAD THE AREA AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS INTO THE AFTERNOON. TOTAL AMOUNTS SHOULD BE BETWEEN A
QUARTER TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH IN A FEW ISOLATED LOCATIONS.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED. A FEW SNOWFLAKES COULD MIX INTO THE
HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF NORTH GEORGIA THIS MORNING, BUT NO
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.
- RAIN WILL COME TO AN END FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON AS A
FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA. AIR BEHIND THIS
FRONT IS NOT PARTICULARLY COLD, SO WE WON'T BE PLUNGING BACK INTO
THE ARCTIC AS WITH PREVIOUS SYSTEMS. CLEAR SKIES AND WARM TOMORROW.
FORECAST:
AS EXPECTED, RAIN HAS OVERSPREAD THE AREA AS MOISTURE HAS BEEN
LIFTED ISENTROPICALLY INTO AN AREA OF BROAD LIFT WITHIN THE RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION OF AN ENHANCED JET STREAK. A SHORTWAVE IS DIVING
DOWN INTO THE CWA WITHIN THE POLAR JET THAT IS DRIVING THAT
ENHANCEMENT, AND ALSO WILL PUSH THE FRONT INTO THE AREA LATER TODAY
THAT WILL BRING THE PRECIPITATION TO AN END. EXPECT RAIN TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS AND INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON FOR MOST
LOCATIONS. RAIN WILL COME TO AN END DURING THE AFTERNOON TO EVENING
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AS AFOREMENTIONED FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA.
RAIN TOTALS SHOULD BE AROUND A QUARTER TO SOME ISOLATED HIGHER
TOTALS UP TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH WHEN ALL IS SAID AND DONE.
WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES REMAINING IN THE 40S AND 50S THROUGH THE
DAY AND WITH UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE BEING POSITIVELY TILTED, NO
INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED, SO NO THUNDER IS EXPECTED. CAN'T RULE OUT A
FEW SNOWFLAKES MIXING IN WITH RAIN IN THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF
NORTH GEORGIA, BUT NO ACCUMULATIONS WILL OCCUR.
RAIN COMES TO AN END TONIGHT AND CLOUD COVER SHOULD ALSO CLEAR UP,
ALLOWING FOR SOME RADIATIONAL COOLING, ESPECIALLY IN NORTH GEORGIA.
THAT SAID, AIR MASS MOVING IN DOES NOT HAVE ARCTIC ORIGINS AND ISN'T
VERY COLD, SO OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 20S AND 30S.
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND PRETTY
QUICKLY TOMORROW, WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S AND 60S. THIS WILL LIKELY BE
THE BEGINNING OF A RAPID WARMING TREND ACROSS THE CWA FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS, WHICH YOU CAN FIND OUT ABOUT BELOW.
LUSK
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 AM EST MON JAN 27 2025
- TEMPERATURES SLOWLY CLIMBING TO BECOME CLOSER TO NORMAL FOR
JANUARY.
- A FEW SHOWERS AND DRIZZLE BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE AREA.
WEAK MID LEVEL RIDGING DOWNSTREAM OF A STALLING, AND EXTREMELY
POSITIVELY TILTED, TROUGH WILL BRING GRADUALLY WARMING TEMPERATURE
TO SOMETHING A BIT CLOSER TO NORMAL FOR JANUARY IN GEORGIA. HIGHS IN
THE MID 40S CLIMB TO THE LOW 50S TO NEAR 60 BY SUNDAY. DRY AIR WILL
MEAN DIURNALLY DRIVEN LOWS REMAIN BELOW FREEZING.
INCREASING MOISTURE FROM WEAK W/SW FLOW WILL BEGIN TO RAISE
DEWPOINTS AS WE MOVE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. POPS BEGIN TO ALSO
INCREASE NEAR THE END OF THE SHORT-TERM IN NORTHWEST GA FOR LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS. AT THIS TIME, WINTRY PRECIPITATION CHANCES REMAIN LOW
WITH WETBULBS ABOVE FREEZING FOR ALL BUT THE PEAKS OF MOUNTAINS.
UNCERTAINTY IN THE START TIME OF ANY POPS AFTER SUNDAY AFTERNOON
REMAINS HIGH GIVEN THE SLOW MOVING NATURE OF ANY SFC FEATURE THAT
FORMS AND SUPPORT FROM THE SHIFTING LARGER SCALE TROUGH. OVERALL
SHOULD BE MINIMALLY IMPACTFUL.
SM
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 101 AM EST MON JAN 27 2025
SHRA IS MOVING INTO ALL TAF SITES AS OF 06Z. THIS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH MORNING HOURS. SHRA SHOULD END BY 16-18Z TODAY. MVFR CIGS
PROGGED TO MOVE INTO TAF SITES BY 08Z, WITH IFR CIGS BY 11Z. IFR
CIGS EXPECTED TO REMAIN THROUGH AFTERNOON, CLEARING BY 00Z-02Z
TONIGHT. WINDS WILL BE ON WEST SIDE THROUGH PERIOD, BECOMING MORE
NW BY THE EVENING. WINDS WILL BE 4-8 KTS.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
HIGH ALL ELEMENTS.
LUSK
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
ATHENS 51 31 58 39 / 70 0 0 0
ATLANTA 51 33 57 39 / 70 0 0 0
BLAIRSVILLE 49 26 52 33 / 40 0 0 0
CARTERSVILLE 51 28 55 36 / 40 0 0 0
COLUMBUS 54 34 60 38 / 90 0 0 0
GAINESVILLE 50 33 55 39 / 50 0 0 0
MACON 52 33 61 38 / 90 0 0 0
ROME 52 26 57 35 / 40 0 0 0
PEACHTREE CITY 52 31 57 38 / 80 0 0 0
VIDALIA 54 39 62 41 / 70 20 0 0
FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...LUSK
LONG TERM....SM
AVIATION...LUSK
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