151
FXUS62 KFFC 280308
AFDFFC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1008 PM EST MON JAN 27 2025
..LATE EVENING UPDATE
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1000 PM EST MON JAN 27 2025
LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE HAS SHIFTED TO THE SOUTHEAST AND SKY
CONDITIONS HAVE GRADUALLY IMPROVED THIS EVENING WITH A PASSING
MIDLEVEL DISTURBANCE. TEMPERATURES HAVE ALSO BEGUN TO FALL RATHER
QUICKLY ACROSS THE NORTHWEST(AT OR JUST BELOW FREEZING) AND
DEWPOINTS HAVE BEEN SLOWER TO FALL. WITH LINGERING MOISTURE NEAR
THE SURFACE, SOME PATCHY FREEZING FOG HAS DEVELOPED IN THE
NORTHWEST. THUS, ISSUED A SMALL SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT TO
CAPTURE THIS THREAT THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. ASIDE FROM THE
FREEZING FOG, THE FORECAST LARGELY REMAINS ON TRACK. SKIES WILL
CONTINUE TO CLEAR AND COOL TEMPERATURES WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE
AREA OVERNIGHT.
SHORT TERM
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 258 PM EST MON JAN 27 2025
IT HAS BEEN A COOL, DAMP DAY ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA.
TEMPERATURES ARE ON TRACK TO TOP OUT IN THE 50S, WITH PORTIONS OF
NORTH GEORGIA REMAINING IN THE 40S. LOW-LEVEL CLOUDS (WITH BASES
AT 200-800 FEET) HAVE SETTLED ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA,
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD RAIN THAT HAS OCCURRED
TODAY. DRIZZLE AND MIST MAY PERSIST THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING
AMID THE LOW CLOUD CEILINGS. PERIODS OF DECREASED VISIBILITY AND
PATCHY FOG CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY EVENING, GIVEN THE MUGGY
(ALBEIT COOL) ENVIRONMENT.
THE 500 MB DISTURBANCE THAT WAS THE IMPETUS FOR THE RAINFALL
TODAY IS CURRENTLY SHIFTING EASTWARD OVER THE CAROLINAS AND
ADJACENT ATLANTIC WATERS, WITH ANOTHER DISTURBANCE ON ITS HEELS
(AS SEEN IN MID-LEVEL WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY) PIVOTING OVER
THE OH/TN RIVER VALLEY. THIS FEATURE WILL PASS OVER GEORGIA THIS
EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT, BRINGING WITH IT A SHOT OF A COLDER
AIR. OVERNIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY MORNING LOW TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST
TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA TO MID/UPPER 30S
ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA.
MUCH DRIER AIR WILL PUSH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TOMORROW
(TUESDAY) WITH NORTHWEST FLOW, IN THE WAKE OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
PASSAGE/WEAK COLD FRONT PASSAGE. THE DEW POINT FORECAST OVERNIGHT
THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON WAS POPULATED USING A MIX OF HI-RES
GUIDANCE, TO BETTER CAPTURE THE TENDENCY FOR CONDITIONS TO BE
DRIER THAN FORECAST AFTER FROPA. AS A RESULT, THE DEW POINT
FORECAST IS A BIT DRIER THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGE, BUT AT
THIS TIME, IT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE FIRE DANGER STATEMENT CRITERIA
WILL BE MET TOMORROW. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO REACH HIGHS IN
THE MID-50S TO LOWER 60S TOMORROW.
MARTIN
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 258 PM EST MON JAN 27 2025
THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BEGIN ON WEDNESDAY WITH A CUTOFF UPPER
LOW POSITIONED OVER THE SOUTHWEST CONUS. WEAK RIDGING TO THE EAST
OF THIS SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL LEAD TO
GRADUAL WARMING THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL
FOLLOW A NORMAL DIURNAL PATTERN ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF THE HIGH AND BENIGN WEATHER OVERALL. TEMPS ON
WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL BEGIN IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S, RISING TO
HIGHS PRIMARILY IN THE 60S IN THE AFTERNOON. LOWS AND HIGHS ON
THURSDAY WILL EACH BE A COUPLE OF DEGREES WARMER. LATE THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY, THE AXIS OF THE RIDGE WILL CROSS GEORGIA TO THE EAST,
AT WHICH POINT THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL SHIFT TO SOUTHWESTERLY.
THE SURFACE HIGH WILL MEANWHILE MOVE EAST TOWARDS THE MID-ATLANTIC
COAST, LEADING TO SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW BEHIND THE HIGH.
INCREASING MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO RISING DEWPOINTS, WHICH WILL
CLIMB FROM THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S INTO THE 50S BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WILL ALSO RISE INTO THE MID
60S TO LOW 70S IN NORTH GEORGIA AND MID TO UPPER 70S IN CENTRAL
GEORGIA.
WHILE THIS IS GOING ON, THE UPPER LOW IS ANTICIPATED TO SLOWLY
MEANDER EAST-NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE GREAT PLAINS AND TOWARDS THE
LOWER MIDWEST. BY FRIDAY MORNING, A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING TO THE
EAST OF THIS UPPER LOW WILL EXTEND A COLD FRONT INTO THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY, WHICH WILL ADVANCE EASTWARD TOWARDS
GEORGIA. PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST TO RETURN TO THE FORECAST AREA
AHEAD OF THIS FRONT ON FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING, PRIMARILY
IN THE FORM OF RAIN SHOWERS, ALTHOUGH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE IN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL GEORGIA. SOME UNCERTAINTY
REMAINS AT THIS TIME WITH RESPECT TO THE TIMING AND EVOLUTION OF
THIS SYSTEM, WHICH WILL WARRANT CONTINUED MONITORING AS IT
CONTINUES TO COME INTO FOCUS.
KING
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 620 PM EST MON JAN 27 2025
ALL SITES REMAIN AT LIFR TO IFR CIGS, THOUGH OBS AND SATELLITE
ARE STARTING TO INDICATE IMPROVEMENTS. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE PERIOD. PATCHY DZ/BR/FG WILL CONTINUE TO BE
POSSIBILITY TONIGHT. THOUGH WITH THE FRONT PUSHING SOUTH CIGS AND
VSBYS WILL BE CLEARING BETWEEN 09 TO 12Z AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE
WNW/NW. NW WINDS WILL BE A LITTLE GUSTY ON TUESDAY NEARING 20KTS.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...00Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON EVOLUTION OF CIGS AND VSBYS
HIGH CONFIDENCE ON REMAINING ELEMENTS
07
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
ATHENS 31 58 37 64 / 0 0 0 0
ATLANTA 33 58 39 63 / 0 0 0 0
BLAIRSVILLE 27 52 32 57 / 0 0 0 0
CARTERSVILLE 28 57 34 62 / 0 0 0 0
COLUMBUS 34 61 38 66 / 0 0 0 0
GAINESVILLE 33 56 39 61 / 0 0 0 0
MACON 34 61 36 68 / 10 0 0 0
ROME 27 58 34 63 / 0 0 0 10
PEACHTREE CITY 31 59 36 64 / 0 0 0 0
VIDALIA 40 62 40 69 / 20 0 0 0
FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...MARTIN
LONG TERM....KING
AVIATION...07
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