454
FXUS62 KFFC 281128
AFDFFC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
628 AM EST TUE JAN 28 2025
..NEW 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 427 AM EST TUE JAN 28 2025
KEY MESSAGES:
- MONITORING FREEZING FOG CONDITIONS ACROSS NORTH GA AND METRO
ATLANTA. FREEZING FOG ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR FAR NORTH
GEORGIA. IMPACTS SHOULD BE MINOR, BUT USE CAUTION WHILE
DRIVING, ESPECIALLY NEAR ANY BRIDGES OR OVERPASSES.
- CLEAR SKIES TODAY AND TOMORROW. WINDS TODAY WILL BE 10-15 MPH
WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS IN THE POST FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT. HIGHS
IN THE 50S AND 60S.
FORECAST:
CURRENTLY MONITORING CLOSELY SOME FREEZING FOG CONDITIONS THAT HAVE
DEVELOPED IN OUR POST FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT. DEWPOINTS HAVE REMAINED
ELEVATED WITH CLEAR SKIES. RADIATIONAL COOLING HAS BROUGHT
TEMPERATURES DOWN TO BELOW FREEZING AND ALSO TO SATURATION IN MANY
LOCATIONS. NOTABLE THAT ON MANY TRAFFIC CAMERAS ROADS ARE STILL WET
FROM RAIN THAT FELL EARLIER, INDICATIVE OF THE SATURATED ENVIRONMENT
THAT IS UNABLE TO EVAPORATE RESIDUAL MOISTURE. FOG HAS BEEN ABLE TO
FORM, ESPECIALLY IN AND AROUND WARMER BODIES OF WATER AND THE
VALLEYS OF NORTHERN GA. TEMPERATURES HAVE FALLEN BELOW FREEZING, AND
THUS OUR FREEZING FOG CONCERNS. AS OF THIS WRITING, FREEZING FOG HAS
STUCK AROUND LONG ENOUGH IN NORTH GEORGIA TO WARRANT FREEZING FOG
ADVISORY. IMPACTS SHOULD BE MINOR, BUT IF YOU ENCOUNTER FOG THIS
MORNING WHILE DRIVING, TAKE IT EASY AND LEAVE PLENTY OF DISTANCE
BETWEEN YOU AND OTHER DRIVERS. FREEZING FOG IS MUCH MORE PATCHY
FURTHER TO THE SOUTH AROUND THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN EDGES OF THE
METRO, BUT SLIPPERY CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE WHERE IT DOES
DEVELOP. FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE, AND
TEMPERATURES WILL QUICKLY WARM ABOVE FREEZING, REMOVING ANY
CONCERN FOR LINGERING IMPACTS.
BEYOND THE FOG CONCERNS, TODAY SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLEAR WITH
TEMPERATURES THAT ARE SEASONABLE TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE FOR
JANUARY ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 50S
AND LOWER 60S. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IS IN PLACE, WITH THE CORE OF
THE POLAR JET REMAINING TO OUR NORTH DESPITE LARGE TROUGH OVER THE
EASTERN US. CUT OFF LOW OVER THE DESERT SW IS EXPECTED TO PROGRESS
EASTWARD INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO
BEGIN BUILDING IN OVER THE SOUTHEAST. HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL BE IN
THE 60S AND POSSIBLY EVEN A FEW 70S (!) DOWN IN PORTIONS OF EAST
CENTRAL GA ON WEDNESDAY AS SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILDS IN. THIS IS A
WELCOME CHANGE FROM THE COLD AIR THAT HAS BEEN IN PLACE THROUGH MUCH
OF JANUARY IN THIS FORECASTER'S OPINION, AND A SIGN OF THINGS TO
COME IN THE LONG TERM FORECAST BELOW.
LUSK
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 427 AM EST TUE JAN 28 2025
THE EXTENDED PERIOD WEATHER WILL BE CENTERED ON THE CUTOFF LOW
CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHWEST US AND ITS ULTIMATE EVOLUTION AND
EJECTING INTO THE BROADER FLOW ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS.
SURFACE RIDGING CENTERED OVER THE MID ATLANTIC ON THURSDAY SHIFTS
EASTWARD OFF THE COAST WITH INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW TAKING SHAPE
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING AND PHASING CUT OFF
LOW. ONE THING THAT HAS CHANGED OVER THE PREVIOUS FORECASTS AND RUNS
IS THE EVOLVING CONSISTENCY BETWEEN THE NBM AND DETERMINISTIC
GUIDANCE ON THE TIMING OF THE FRONT/HIGHEST POP PERIOD ON FRIDAY.
REMARKABLY, ALL THE GUIDANCE IS POINTING AT FRIDAY MIDDAY...AT LEAST
AT THIS POINT. DESPITE SOME MODEST DEWPOINT RECOVERY INTO THE MID
50S UP TO THE I20 CORRIDOR AND SOME FAIRLY STOUT MID AND UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT, NBM SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY PROBABILITIES OF CAPE GT
100J/KG IS LESS THAN 5%. FCST SOUNDINGS CONCUR WITH THOSE PROBS
THUS, MENTION OF EVEN ANY THUNDER MUCH LESS SEVERE WILL BE LEFT OUT
OF THE FORECAST ON FRIDAY.
BEYOND FRIDAY, MID LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MOSTLY ZONAL ACROSS THE
EASTERN CONUS. WITHOUT ANY COLD AIR INTRUSIONS, TEMPS SHOULD MODIFY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND LAND ABOVE NORMAL AT MOST LOCATIONS.
30
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 622 AM EST TUE JAN 28 2025
VFR THROUGH TAF PERIOD. CSG EXPERIENCING SOME IFR CIGS/VSBYS THAT
WILL CLEAR IN NEXT 2 HOURS, BUT ALL OTHER SITES SHOULD REMAIN
CLEAR FROM 12Z TAF ISSUANCE. SKC EXPECTED INTO TOMORROW. WINDS
ARE FROM THE NW TO W THROUGH PERIOD. WINDS TODAY COULD BE GUSTY,
7-12 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 20 KTS.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...12Z UPDATE...
HIGH ALL ELEMENTS.
LUSK
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
ATHENS 57 37 63 38 / 0 0 0 0
ATLANTA 57 40 63 41 / 0 0 0 0
BLAIRSVILLE 53 32 57 33 / 0 0 0 0
CARTERSVILLE 56 36 61 38 / 0 0 0 0
COLUMBUS 59 38 66 43 / 0 0 0 0
GAINESVILLE 56 40 61 39 / 0 0 0 0
MACON 60 37 68 41 / 0 0 0 0
ROME 56 35 63 36 / 0 0 0 0
PEACHTREE CITY 58 38 64 41 / 0 0 0 0
VIDALIA 61 41 69 43 / 0 0 0 0
FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FREEZING FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR GAZ001>009-
011>013-019-020.
SHORT TERM...LUSK
LONG TERM....30
AVIATION...LUSK
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