380
FXUS62 KFFC 281916
AFDFFC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
216 PM EST TUE JAN 28 2025
..AFTERNOON AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 146 PM EST TUE JAN 28 2025
- DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS WITH SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS
THROUGH THURSDAY.
- AROUND AN INCH OF RAIN IS EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.
NO STRONG OR SEVERE STORMS EXPECTED THOUGH THAT COULD CHANGE IF
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS HIGHER THAN FORECAST.
- DRY CONDITIONS WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
SHORT TERM
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 146 PM EST TUE JAN 28 2025
UNEVENTFUL WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY AMID WARMING
TEMPERATURES. UPPER RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD EASTWARD ON
WEDNESDAY WHILE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN PLACE AT THE SURFACE. A
GOOD BIT OF SUNSHINE WILL BE THE RESULT WITH THE EXCEPTION BEING
TRANSIENT HIGH CIRRUS CLOUDS.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE A SUBSTANTIAL WARMING TREND COURTESY OF
THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGING. LOW TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL
REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING FOR THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE AREA OTHER THAN A
FEW SPOTS IN THE MOUNTAIN COUNTIES. THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES OF 2025
SO FAR CAN BE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS TEMPERATURES WILL RISE
SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. MOST LOCALES IN NORTH GEORGIA (OUTSIDE
OF THE MOUNTAINS) WILL REACH THE LOW-TO-MID 60S, AND SOME SPOTS IN
MIDDLE GEORGIA COULD EVEN TOUCH 70 DEGREES. AS SUCH, WINTER WILL BE
ON HIATUS FOR THE TIME BEING.
RW
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 146 PM EST TUE JAN 28 2025
NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IMPACTS OR FORECAST CONCERNS IN THE LONG
TERM PERIOD.
LATEST DROP FROM GLOBAL MODEL ENSEMBLES CONTINUES TO HONE IN ON
TIMING AND MOUNTS OF RAINFALL (NO WINTER PRECIP) ON THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY. WITH FRIDAY AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S
AND DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S IN MIDDLE GEORGIA,
THERE IS CONCERN ABOUT POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION ON FRIDAY, WHICH
COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE IF THERE IS SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY.
FORTUNATELY, THE VAST MAJORITY (95%) OF THE GUIDANCE IS SHOWING
CAPE < 250 J/KG, WHICH IF IT WERE TO VERIFY WOULD PRECLUDE ANY
THREAT. IF THE AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND PHASING WITH
COOLER TEMPS ALOFT WERE TO CHANGE, THE RISK WOULD HAVE TO BE
REEVALUATED. DID NOTE THAT CIPS ANALOG FORECASTS BASED ON THE
GEFS VALID FRIDAY DID SHOW 20-30% PROBABILITIES OF SEVERE WX
WITHIN 110 KM OF ANY POINT IN MIDDLE GA WHILE CSU ML PROBS ARE
ONLY ~5%.
AFTER FRIDAY, A GREAT WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK ON TAP WITH DRY
AND WARM CONDITIONS WITH TEMPS ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE 30-YEAR
CLIMATOLOGY. SOME NUANCES SEEN BETWEEN THE TOP 3 GLOBAL ENSEMBLE
CLUSTERS IN THE 500MB HEIGHT FIELD, BUT NOWHERE NEAR ENOUGH TO
SUGGEST ANYTHING BUT DRY WEATHER.
SNELSON
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1202 PM EST TUE JAN 28 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD UNDER MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES, THOUGH SCT250 CIRRUS WILL LINGER THROUGH 00Z. WINDS
WILL REMAIN W AT SPEEDS 7-10 KTS WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 20 KTS
THROUGH 00Z WITH SPEEDS DROPPING TO 3-6 KTS OVERNIGHT AND 6-12 KTS
AFTER 15Z WEDNESDAY.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
HIGH CONFIDENCE.
RW
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
ATHENS 38 63 38 61 / 0 0 0 0
ATLANTA 40 63 41 62 / 0 0 0 10
BLAIRSVILLE 33 57 33 56 / 0 0 0 10
CARTERSVILLE 36 62 36 61 / 0 0 0 10
COLUMBUS 38 66 43 70 / 0 0 0 0
GAINESVILLE 40 61 38 58 / 0 0 0 10
MACON 38 68 40 68 / 0 0 0 0
ROME 34 63 35 62 / 0 0 0 10
PEACHTREE CITY 38 64 39 64 / 0 0 0 10
VIDALIA 42 69 43 71 / 0 0 0 0
FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...RW
LONG TERM....SNELSON
AVIATION...RW
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