943
FXUS62 KFFC 290542
AFDFFC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1242 AM EST WED JAN 29 2025
..NEW 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 955 PM EST TUE JAN 28 2025
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK FOR THIS EVENING. EXPECTING HIGH CLOUDS
TO CONTINUE TO MOVE IN FROM THE WEST OVERNIGHT, WITH LOWS IN THE
30S TO NEAR 40 -- AS MUCH AS 5-8 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE FOR LATE
JANUARY.
96
SHORT TERM
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 146 PM EST TUE JAN 28 2025
UNEVENTFUL WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY AMID WARMING
TEMPERATURES. UPPER RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD EASTWARD ON
WEDNESDAY WHILE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN PLACE AT THE SURFACE. A
GOOD BIT OF SUNSHINE WILL BE THE RESULT WITH THE EXCEPTION BEING
TRANSIENT HIGH CIRRUS CLOUDS.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE A SUBSTANTIAL WARMING TREND COURTESY OF
THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGING. LOW TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL
REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING FOR THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE AREA OTHER THAN A
FEW SPOTS IN THE MOUNTAIN COUNTIES. THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES OF 2025
SO FAR CAN BE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS TEMPERATURES WILL RISE
SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. MOST LOCALES IN NORTH GEORGIA (OUTSIDE
OF THE MOUNTAINS) WILL REACH THE LOW-TO-MID 60S, AND SOME SPOTS IN
MIDDLE GEORGIA COULD EVEN TOUCH 70 DEGREES. AS SUCH, WINTER WILL BE
ON HIATUS FOR THE TIME BEING.
RW
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 146 PM EST TUE JAN 28 2025
NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IMPACTS OR FORECAST CONCERNS IN THE LONG
TERM PERIOD.
LATEST DROP FROM GLOBAL MODEL ENSEMBLES CONTINUES TO HONE IN ON
TIMING AND MOUNTS OF RAINFALL (NO WINTER PRECIP) ON THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY. WITH FRIDAY AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S
AND DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S IN MIDDLE GEORGIA,
THERE IS CONCERN ABOUT POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION ON FRIDAY, WHICH
COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE IF THERE IS SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY.
FORTUNATELY, THE VAST MAJORITY (95%) OF THE GUIDANCE IS SHOWING
CAPE < 250 J/KG, WHICH IF IT WERE TO VERIFY WOULD PRECLUDE ANY
THREAT. IF THE AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND PHASING WITH
COOLER TEMPS ALOFT WERE TO CHANGE, THE RISK WOULD HAVE TO BE
REEVALUATED. DID NOTE THAT CIPS ANALOG FORECASTS BASED ON THE
GEFS VALID FRIDAY DID SHOW 20-30% PROBABILITIES OF SEVERE WX
WITHIN 110 KM OF ANY POINT IN MIDDLE GA WHILE CSU ML PROBS ARE
ONLY ~5%.
AFTER FRIDAY, A GREAT WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK ON TAP WITH DRY
AND WARM CONDITIONS WITH TEMPS ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE 30-YEAR
CLIMATOLOGY. SOME NUANCES SEEN BETWEEN THE TOP 3 GLOBAL ENSEMBLE
CLUSTERS IN THE 500MB HEIGHT FIELD, BUT NOWHERE NEAR ENOUGH TO
SUGGEST ANYTHING BUT DRY WEATHER.
SNELSON
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1239 AM EST WED JAN 29 2025
VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS ACROSS
NORTH AND CENTRAL GA DESPITE INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS. RELATIVELY
LIGHT W/NW WINDS WILL PICK UP BETWEEN 14-16Z. EXPECT SOME GUSTS
FROM KATL TO KAHN TO AROUND 20KTS, ESPECIALLY AFTER 18Z/WED. NO
OTHER IMPACTS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
HIGH ALL ELEMENTS.
DJN.83
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
ATHENS 38 61 45 67 / 0 0 10 90
ATLANTA 41 62 50 66 / 0 10 20 100
BLAIRSVILLE 33 56 44 59 / 0 10 30 100
CARTERSVILLE 36 61 50 66 / 0 10 30 90
COLUMBUS 43 70 52 71 / 0 0 10 90
GAINESVILLE 38 58 45 63 / 0 10 20 100
MACON 40 68 49 74 / 0 0 0 90
ROME 35 62 50 66 / 0 10 40 90
PEACHTREE CITY 39 64 50 67 / 0 10 10 100
VIDALIA 43 71 52 79 / 0 0 0 50
FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...RW
LONG TERM....SNELSON
AVIATION...DJN.83
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