332
FXUS62 KFFC 291133
AFDFFC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
633 AM EST WED JAN 29 2025
..NEW 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 AM EST WED JAN 29 2025
OUTSIDE OF SOME HIGH CLOUDS BEGINNING TO STREAM ACROSS THE AREA FROM
THE WEST, A RELATIVELY QUIET LATE JANUARY MORNING EXISTS ACROSS
NORTH AND CENTRAL GA. TEMPERATURES ARE SEASONAL, RANGING FROM THE
MID-UPR 20S ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF FAR NORTH GA TO THE MID
40S OVER A FEW LOCATIONS IN CENTRAL GA.
THE CURRENT UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP THINGS UNDER
CONTROL ACROSS OUR AREA WITH THE MORE ACTIVE "STORM TRACK/JET" WAY
NORTH AT THE MOMENT (WESTERN CANADA TO THE UPPER MIDWEST TO NEW
ENGLAND). THERE IS A CUT-OFF LOW AROUND THE FOUR CORNERS/DESERT SW
THAT WILL ACTUALLY BE OUR WEATHER-MAKER (RAIN PRODUCER) BY FRIDAY AS
IT MOVES NORTHEAST AND EVENTUALLY GETS ABSORBED BY THE NORTHERN
STREAM FLOW. WINDS MAY GUST A BIT TODAY WITH A TIGHT NW-FLOW
GRADIENT AND 925MB WINDS IN THE 25-35KT RANGE. WE MAY ALSO SEE OUR
WARMEST DAY SINCE THE END OF DECEMBER (IN ATLANTA). WE HAVE NOT BEEN
ABOVE 60F SINCE DEC. 31ST -- CURRENTLY FORECASTING A HIGH OF 63-64F.
ENJOY!
DJN.83
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 AM EST WED JAN 29 2025
KEY MESSAGES:
- RAIN WILL MOVE THROUGH ON FRIDAY. STILL UNCERTAINTY ON THE EXACT
TIMING. FORECAST RAIN AMOUNTS ARE AROUND A HALF AN INCH TO AN INCH.
- REST OF THE FORECAST IS QUITE WARM. HIGHS ARE IN THE 60S AND 70S
EACH DAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH NO RAIN CHANCES UNTIL
WEDNESDAY.
FORECAST:
MODELS HAVE HONED IN ON AN EJECTION OF THE CUT OFF LOW LOCATED OVER
THE SW CONUS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. ULL PROGRESSES
QUICKLY TO THE EAST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS MOVING ACROSS THE CWA
ON FRIDAY EVENING WITH A POSITIVELY TILTED APPEARANCE OF A
SHORTWAVE BEING ABSORBED INTO THE POLAR JET. BROAD SURFACE LOW
FORMS AS RESULT OF LEE CYCLOGENESIS IN RESPONSE TO ULL EJECTING
INTO THE SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS AND QUICKLY TRAVELS TO THE EAST AS
WELL. MASS RESPONSE FROM THE GULF BRINGS MOISTURE SURGING AHEAD OF
A FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS IT APPROACHES THE CWA. BAND
OF RAIN IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE CWA ON FRIDAY.
LOOKING AT THE ENSEMBLE SPREAD ACROSS THE AMERICAN, CANADIAN, AND
EUROPEAN MODELS, K-MEAN CLUSTER ANALYSIS OF THE PRINCIPLE COMPONENTS
OF THE FIRST 2 EOFS (WHEW) OF THE EAST COAST 500 MB PATTERN ON
FRIDAY SHOWS 2 PRIMARY TIMING REGIMES WITHIN THE ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE
- ONE THAT IS DOMINATED BY MEMBERS OF THE GEFS WHICH PUSHES
THROUGH A WEAKER SYSTEM WITH LOWER PRECIP AMOUNTS THAT CLEARS THE
CWA BY FRIDAY EVENING, AND THE REST WHICH A BIT SLOWER AND LESS
PROGRESSIVE WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW. FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE,
LEANING TOWARDS THE SLOWER SOLUTION FOR NOW. 2 KNOWN MODEL BIASES
IN MY MIND ARE POTENTIALLY TUGGING AT EACH OTHER HERE - ONE IN
WHICH CUT OFF LOWS TEND TO GET EJECTED TOO QUICKLY, AND ONE IN
WHICH FRONTAL SYSTEMS TEND TO PROGRESS THROUGH THE AREA FASTER
THAN MOST GUIDANCE HAS PROGGED.
TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD BE HALF AND INCH TO AN INCH PER
CURRENT GUIDANCE. QPF IS A BIT HIGHER THAN WHAT MODELS ACTUALLY SHOW
CURRENTLY (HOVERING NEAR 90TH PERCENTILE IN SOME CASES), WHICH IS IN
LINE WITH EXPECTED UNDERDONE QPF GUIDANCE FROM LOWER RESOLUTION
GLOBAL MODELS. OTHER THING TO NOTE IS THAT THUNDER CHANCES LOOK LOW
AT THIS TIME. ENSEMBLE PROBABILITIES OF >100 J/KG OF CAPE ARE QUITE
LOW (< 10% IN MOST AREAS EXCEPT FAR SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA, WHERE IT
IS STILL < 20%), WHICH WOULD MAKE THUNDER AND ESPECIALLY SEVERE
WEATHER CHALLENGING TO SAY THE LEAST. A POSITIVE TILT TO THE
SHORTWAVE LIMITS COOLING ALOFT AND FRONTAL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IS
VERY WEAK LOOKING ACROSS MOST GUIDANCE. THESE WILL KEEP CHANCES
LIMITED AS LONG AS MODELS CONTINUE TO BE ALIGNED AROUND THIS SET UP,
DESPITE DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S AND SOME IMPRESSIVE SHEAR VALUES. WORTH
KEEPING AN EYE ON, ESPECIALLY AS HI-RES GUIDANCE GETS A HOLD OF
THIS TIME PERIOD.
BEYOND THIS, POLAR JET REMAINS TO THE NORTH AND AIRMASS THAT FILTERS
IN BEHIND THE FRONT ON FRIDAY HAS RELATIVELY WARM ORIGINS. JET GOES
ZONAL OVER THE REST OF THE LONG TERM THANKS TO ROSSBY WAVE BREAK ON
THE TROPICAL (ANTICYCLONIC) SIDE OF THE JET THAT FILTERS IN OVER THE
CONUS, SHIFTING THE JET POLEWARD AND ENHANCING IT ZONALLY. THIS
KEEPS THE CWA RELATIVELY WARM FOR JANUARY/FEBRUARY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE REST OF THE LONG TERM WILL BE IN THE 60S
AND 70S AND LOWS IN THE 40S AND 50S. RAIN CHANCES LOOK TO BE LOW
UNTIL THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS A RESULT AS WELL.
LUSK
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 629 AM EST WED JAN 29 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AS JUST SOME HIGH CLOUDS INCREASE
ACROSS THE STATE FROM THE WEST TODAY. WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
PICK UP THIS MORNING AS MIXING OCCURS WITH A FEW GUSTS UP TO
AROUND 20KTS OCCURRING THIS AFTERNOON, MAINLY FROM THE ATLANTA
AREA TO ATHENS (KAHN). A WIND SHIFT TO THE NE AND EVENTUALLY E-SE
IS EXPECTED BETWEEN DAYBREAK AND MID MORNING TOMORROW. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...12Z UPDATE...
HIGH ALL ELEMENTS.
DJN.83
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
ATHENS 64 38 62 46 / 0 0 0 10
ATLANTA 64 42 62 50 / 0 0 10 10
BLAIRSVILLE 57 34 55 44 / 0 0 10 20
CARTERSVILLE 62 38 62 51 / 0 0 10 20
COLUMBUS 67 43 71 53 / 0 10 0 0
GAINESVILLE 62 40 59 45 / 0 0 10 10
MACON 68 40 69 50 / 0 0 0 0
ROME 63 37 62 51 / 0 0 20 30
PEACHTREE CITY 65 40 65 51 / 0 0 10 10
VIDALIA 69 43 72 53 / 0 0 0 0
FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...DJN.83
LONG TERM....LUSK
AVIATION...DJN.83
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