390
FXUS62 KFFC 300614
AFDFFC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
114 AM EST THU JAN 30 2025
..NEW 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION
SHORT TERM
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 200 PM EST WED JAN 29 2025
FAIRLY QUIET CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE BULK OF THE SHORT
TERM. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY SITUATED OVER THE SOUTHEAST
WILL RAPIDLY PUSH INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC ON THURSDAY. MEANWHILE,
SHORTWAVE MIDLEVEL RIDGING WILL SHIFT OVERHEAD IN ADVANCE OF A
CLOSED UPPER LOW EJECTING EASTWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA THROUGH THE
DAY, THOUGH MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO IN FAR NORTH GEORGIA.
BY THURSDAY NIGHT, THE CLOSED LOW WILL BEGIN TO BE ABSORBED INTO THE
MAIN FLOW, AND A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH THE
AREA. RAIN CHANCES WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE ACROSS NORTHWEST GEORGIA
BY THE PREDAWN HOURS FRIDAY IN ADVANCE OF THIS SYSTEM.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL. SUBFREEZING LOWS ARE IN THE
REARVIEW MIRROR, RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S BY THURSDAY
MORNING. HIGHS THURSDAY WILL RUN AROUND TEN DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR
MOST WITH THE 70S LIKELY MAKING AN APPEARANCE FOR MUCH OF MIDDLE
GEORGIA.
RW
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 200 PM EST WED JAN 29 2025
ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE LONG TERM FORECAST.
CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE THAT THE COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED
PRECIPITATION WILL ADVANCE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE
DAYTIME ON FRIDAY BEFORE EXITING TO THE SOUTHEAST BY EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING. RAINFALL TOTALS ASSOCIATED WITH SYSTEM HAVE DECREASED
SLIGHTLY FROM THE PREVIOUS ITERATION OF THE FORECAST, RANGING FROM
0.5-1 INCH IN NORTH GEORGIA AND 0.25-0.5 INCH IN CENTRAL GEORGIA. IT
STILL APPEARS THAT MINIMAL CAPE AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
LIMIT THUNDER CHANCES AND OVERALL SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL, THOUGH A
FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER CANNOT BE RULED OUT IN SOUTHWEST GEORGIA.
AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT, THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK
WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY MILD TEMPERATURES, WHICH WILL GRADUALLY
WARM DAY. THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 AM EST WED JAN 29 2025
KEY MESSAGES:
- RAIN WILL MOVE THROUGH ON FRIDAY. STILL UNCERTAINTY ON THE EXACT
TIMING. FORECAST RAIN AMOUNTS ARE AROUND A HALF AN INCH TO AN INCH.
- REST OF THE FORECAST IS QUITE WARM. HIGHS ARE IN THE 60S AND 70S
EACH DAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH NO RAIN CHANCES UNTIL
WEDNESDAY.
FORECAST:
MODELS HAVE HONED IN ON AN EJECTION OF THE CUT OFF LOW LOCATED OVER
THE SW CONUS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. ULL PROGRESSES
QUICKLY TO THE EAST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS MOVING ACROSS THE CWA
ON FRIDAY EVENING WITH A POSITIVELY TILTED APPEARANCE OF A
SHORTWAVE BEING ABSORBED INTO THE POLAR JET. BROAD SURFACE LOW
FORMS AS RESULT OF LEE CYCLOGENESIS IN RESPONSE TO ULL EJECTING
INTO THE SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS AND QUICKLY TRAVELS TO THE EAST AS
WELL. MASS RESPONSE FROM THE GULF BRINGS MOISTURE SURGING AHEAD OF
A FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS IT APPROACHES THE CWA. BAND
OF RAIN IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE CWA ON FRIDAY.
LOOKING AT THE ENSEMBLE SPREAD ACROSS THE AMERICAN, CANADIAN, AND
EUROPEAN MODELS, K-MEAN CLUSTER ANALYSIS OF THE PRINCIPLE COMPONENTS
OF THE FIRST 2 EOFS (WHEW) OF THE EAST COAST 500 MB PATTERN ON
FRIDAY SHOWS 2 PRIMARY TIMING REGIMES WITHIN THE ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE
- ONE THAT IS DOMINATED BY MEMBERS OF THE GEFS WHICH PUSHES
THROUGH A WEAKER SYSTEM WITH LOWER PRECIP AMOUNTS THAT CLEARS THE
CWA BY FRIDAY EVENING, AND THE REST WHICH A BIT SLOWER AND LESS
PROGRESSIVE WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW. FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE,
LEANING TOWARDS THE SLOWER SOLUTION FOR NOW. 2 KNOWN MODEL BIASES
IN MY MIND ARE POTENTIALLY TUGGING AT EACH OTHER HERE - ONE IN
WHICH CUT OFF LOWS TEND TO GET EJECTED TOO QUICKLY, AND ONE IN
WHICH FRONTAL SYSTEMS TEND TO PROGRESS THROUGH THE AREA FASTER
THAN MOST GUIDANCE HAS PROGGED.
TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD BE HALF AND INCH TO AN INCH PER
CURRENT GUIDANCE. QPF IS A BIT HIGHER THAN WHAT MODELS ACTUALLY SHOW
CURRENTLY (HOVERING NEAR 90TH PERCENTILE IN SOME CASES), WHICH IS IN
LINE WITH EXPECTED UNDERDONE QPF GUIDANCE FROM LOWER RESOLUTION
GLOBAL MODELS. OTHER THING TO NOTE IS THAT THUNDER CHANCES LOOK LOW
AT THIS TIME. ENSEMBLE PROBABILITIES OF >100 J/KG OF CAPE ARE QUITE
LOW (< 10% IN MOST AREAS EXCEPT FAR SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA, WHERE IT
IS STILL < 20%), WHICH WOULD MAKE THUNDER AND ESPECIALLY SEVERE
WEATHER CHALLENGING TO SAY THE LEAST. A POSITIVE TILT TO THE
SHORTWAVE LIMITS COOLING ALOFT AND FRONTAL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IS
VERY WEAK LOOKING ACROSS MOST GUIDANCE. THESE WILL KEEP CHANCES
LIMITED AS LONG AS MODELS CONTINUE TO BE ALIGNED AROUND THIS SET UP,
DESPITE DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S AND SOME IMPRESSIVE SHEAR VALUES. WORTH
KEEPING AN EYE ON, ESPECIALLY AS HI-RES GUIDANCE GETS A HOLD OF
THIS TIME PERIOD.
BEYOND THIS, POLAR JET REMAINS TO THE NORTH AND AIRMASS THAT FILTERS
IN BEHIND THE FRONT ON FRIDAY HAS RELATIVELY WARM ORIGINS. JET GOES
ZONAL OVER THE REST OF THE LONG TERM THANKS TO ROSSBY WAVE BREAK ON
THE TROPICAL (ANTICYCLONIC) SIDE OF THE JET THAT FILTERS IN OVER THE
CONUS, SHIFTING THE JET POLEWARD AND ENHANCING IT ZONALLY. THIS
KEEPS THE CWA RELATIVELY WARM FOR JANUARY/FEBRUARY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE REST OF THE LONG TERM WILL BE IN THE 60S
AND 70S AND LOWS IN THE 40S AND 50S. RAIN CHANCES LOOK TO BE LOW
UNTIL THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS A RESULT AS WELL.
LUSK
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 102 AM EST THU JAN 30 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WITH BKN HIGH CLOUDS LOWERING TO 10-12KFT AROUND
12-15Z TODAY BEFORE GOING BACK UP TO 20-25KFT. CIGS EXPECTED TO
DROP TO NEAR IFR (1000-1500FT) AT ATL METRO AIRPORTS UNTIL AFTER
10Z FRIDAY. VERY LIGHT W SFC WINDS WILL BECOME NE 3-5KTS AFTER
12Z THEN BECOME SE 6-8KTS AFTER 16Z.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
HIGH CONFIDENCE ON ALL ELEMENTS
SNELSON
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
ATHENS 63 47 68 42 / 10 0 90 20
ATLANTA 64 52 65 43 / 10 10 100 10
BLAIRSVILLE 54 44 57 38 / 30 20 100 10
CARTERSVILLE 63 52 64 40 / 10 20 100 0
COLUMBUS 71 53 73 44 / 0 0 90 20
GAINESVILLE 58 45 62 42 / 20 10 100 10
MACON 69 51 74 44 / 0 0 90 40
ROME 63 52 65 40 / 20 30 100 0
PEACHTREE CITY 66 52 67 42 / 10 0 100 10
VIDALIA 71 52 80 49 / 0 0 30 70
FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...SNELSON
LONG TERM....LUSK
AVIATION...SNELSON
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