818
FXUS62 KFFC 300959
AFDFFC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
459 AM EST THU JAN 30 2025
..MORNING AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 444 AM EST THU JAN 30 2025
- SHOWERS WITH ISOLD STORMS FRIDAY WILL PRODUCE UP TO 1/2 INCH OF
RAIN. STRONG OR SEVERE STORMS NOT EXPECTED.
- VERY WARM SAT-WED. HIGHS EACH DAY IN THE 60S, 70S, AND MAYBE
EVEN A FEW 80S.
- NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN WOULD BE BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK,
THOUGH PROBABILITIES ARE LOW AND UNCERTAINTY IS HIGH AT THIS
TIME.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 444 AM EST THU JAN 30 2025
NO MAJOR FORECAST CONCERNS OR WEATHER IMPACTS EXPECTED THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT.
POSITIVELY-TILTED SHORT WAVE EXPECTED TO TRAVERSE EAST ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST STATES FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT, WITH SUFFICIENT LIFT AND
MOISTURE FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS BUT INSUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR
MUCH CONVECTION IN SPITE OF SFC TEMPS REACHING NEAR 80F ON FRIDAY
AFTERNOON OVER AREAS SOUTH AND EAST OF MACON. COULD SEE SOME
ISOLATED STORMS OVER OUR FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES, BUT EVEN THERE
INSTABILITY WILL BE VERY LIMITED WITH MLCAPE VALUES ONLY ~100 J/KG
OR LESS WITH RELATIVELY WARMER AIR ALOFT THAN WAVES WITH A MORE
NEUTRAL OR (RARE) NEGATIVE TILT.
UNTIL THEN, SHOULD BE A NICE WARM DAY TODAY WITH WIDESPREAD HIGH
AND MID CLOUDS THIS MORNING, THINNING OUT IN THE AFTERNOON. COULD
BE SOME LIGHT RAIN OR SPRINKLES IN FAR NW GEORGIA THIS MORNING,
WHICH IS ALREADY APPARENT ON RADAR IMAGERY AND SOME OBSERVING
STATIONS OVER NORTHERN ALABAMA. MAX TEMPS TODAY AND FRIDAY WILL
BE 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
SNELSON
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 444 AM EST THU JAN 30 2025
MAIN STORY WITHIN THE LONG TERM FORECAST LOOKS TO BE THE WARMTH THAT
WILL SPREAD OVER THE ENTIRE CWA AS POLAR JET PARKS A BIT FURTHER TO
THE NORTH AND ALLOWS SUBTROPICAL AIRMASS TO FILTER IN. AT THE START
OF THE LONG TERM ON SATURDAY, CUT-OFF LOW THAT BROUGHT RAIN ON
FRIDAY WILL HAVE PASSED THE AREA AND BEGUN TO MERGE WITH THE POLAR
JET. WHAT FOLLOWS IN ITS WAKE IS A VERY ZONAL FLOW THAT IS LIKELY
THE RESPONSE TO ROSSBY WAVE BREAK OCCURRING OVER THE PACIFIC ON
THE ANTICYCLONIC SIDE OF THE JET THAT IS POSITIONED A BIT MORE
POLEWARD (AN EXPECTED OUTCOME OF THE REDISTRIBUTION OF MOMENTUM TO
BE MORE ZONALLY ORIENTED). THIS IS FOLLOWED NEXT WEEK BY YET
ANOTHER PACIFIC BASED ROSSBY WAVE BREAK THAT HAS STRONGER ORIGINS
WITHIN THE SUBTROPICS, WHICH MAY ACT TO REINFORCE THE AIRMASS IN
PLACE. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE LONG TERM ARE IN THE 60S AND 70S,
WITH EVEN SOME CHANCES OF SEEING 80S IN PARTS OF CENTRAL GEORGIA
NEXT WEEK. THIS UPPER LEVEL PATTERN IS PART OF WHAT IS DRIVING THE
CPC OUTLOOKS OF STRONG WARMTH OVER THE AREA THE NEXT 6-10 DAYS,
AS ENSEMBLES HAVE DECENT CONSISTENCY IN THE EXPECTED PATTERN OVER
THE CONUS.
ONLY CHANCE OF RAIN LOOKS TO COME BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, THOUGH
HIGH UNCERTAINTY AROUND THE EXACT TIMING. MODELS SHOW STRONG SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE DEVELOPING ON THE LEEWARD SIDE OF THE CANADIAN
ROCKIES, WHICH IS ABLE TO SPILL COLD AIR INTO THE UPPER GREAT PLAINS
AND ENHANCE THE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE CENTRAL PART OF THE
EASTERN 2/3RDS OF THE US. A COUPLE OF PERTURBATIONS LOOK TO MOVE
ALONG A THERMALLY INDUCED JET THAT COULD AID IN GETTING SOME BROAD
LIFT AND MOVEMENT OF AIR ISENTROPICALLY THAT COULD BRING SOME
SHOWERS TO THE AREA. A LOT OF BIG QUESTION MARKS ON IF WE CAN GET
SHOWERS THIS FAR SOUTH, HOWEVER, SO POPS REMAIN RELATIVELY LOW TO
ACCOUNT FOR THAT UNCERTAINTY. THIS WOULD BE EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY
RAIN IF IT DOES FORM, THOUGH GIVEN TEMPERATURE AND VERTICAL
PROFILES, A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER WOULD BE POSSIBLE. NOTHING SEVERE
WOULD BE EXPECTED.
LUSK
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 102 AM EST THU JAN 30 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WITH BKN HIGH CLOUDS LOWERING TO 10-12KFT AROUND
12-15Z TODAY BEFORE GOING BACK UP TO 20-25KFT. CIGS EXPECTED TO
DROP TO NEAR IFR (1000-1500FT) AT ATL METRO AIRPORTS UNTIL AFTER
10Z FRIDAY. VERY LIGHT W SFC WINDS WILL BECOME NE 3-5KTS AFTER
12Z THEN BECOME SE 6-8KTS AFTER 16Z.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
HIGH CONFIDENCE ON ALL ELEMENTS
SNELSON
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
ATHENS 65 47 69 43 / 10 10 90 20
ATLANTA 66 52 65 44 / 10 10 100 10
BLAIRSVILLE 57 45 58 38 / 20 20 100 10
CARTERSVILLE 66 52 65 41 / 10 20 100 0
COLUMBUS 72 53 72 44 / 0 0 100 20
GAINESVILLE 61 46 63 42 / 10 10 100 10
MACON 71 51 75 44 / 0 0 90 40
ROME 66 52 64 40 / 10 40 100 0
PEACHTREE CITY 68 52 67 42 / 10 0 100 10
VIDALIA 73 52 80 50 / 0 0 30 70
FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...SNELSON
LONG TERM....LUSK
AVIATION...SNELSON
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