721
FXUS62 KFFC 310322
AFDFFC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1022 PM EST THU JAN 30 2025
..EVENING UPDATE
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1011 PM EST THU JAN 30 2025
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK FOR THIS EVENING. AS WE APPROACH
DAYBREAK, EXPECT SHOWERS (AND ISOLATED EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS) TO
BEGIN TO INCREASE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST AHEAD OF AN
ADVANCING COLD FRONT. LOWS WILL BE QUITE WARM TONIGHT, IN THE
MID-40S TO 50S -- AS MUCH AS 18 TO 22 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE FOR
LATE JANUARY.
96
SHORT TERM
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 143 PM EST THU JAN 30 2025
KEY MESSAGES:
- A COLD FRONT WILL BRING RAIN AND CLOUD COVER TO THE REGION ON
FRIDAY.
- RAINFALL TOTALS IN THE 0.10 TO 0.50 INCH RANGE ARE EXPECTED BY
FRIDAY EVENING.
PRIMARY WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH FRIDAY:
THE VERY LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS THAT MOVED THROUGH NORTH GEORGIA THIS
MORNING HAVE CONCLUDED, AND QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS
EVENING. THUS THE PRIMARY WEATHER CONCERN IN THE IMMEDIATE TERM IS
THE TIMING, AMOUNTS AND INTENSITY FOR FRIDAY'S RAIN EVENT. A WARM
FRONT SHOULD LIFT THROUGH GEORGIA TONIGHT LEADING TO INCREASED
MOISTURE AND CLOUD COVER. THIS WILL LEAVE THE REGION PRIMED FOR
RAINFALL ON FRIDAY AS A COLD FRONT TRAVERSES THE AREA. HREF GUIDANCE
HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY KEEPING THE RAINFALL CONFINED TO A NARROW BAND
OF LIFT IN THE VICINITY OF THE COLD FRONT. THUS THE RAIN SHOULD FALL
WITHIN A FAIRLY NARROW TIME WINDOW (6 HOURS OR LESS) FOR MOST
PORTIONS OF THE STATE. RAIN CHANCES IN THE ATLANTA METRO WILL BE
HIGHEST BETWEEN NOON AND 6 PM. AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH
CENTRAL GEORGIA FRIDAY AFTERNOON A THIN BAND OF INSTABILITY MAY
EXIST JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THUS THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE FOR
THUNDER (20%). THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY AND SHEAR DO NOT LOOK
SUPPORTIVE OF A MEANINGFUL SEVERE WEATHER RISK AT THIS TIME. RAIN
TOTALS FOR THIS EVENT SHOULD BE MODEST (0.10 TO 0.50 INCHES), AND
RAIN SHOULDN'T LAST ALL DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILD ON FRIDAY
(HIGHS IN THE 60S AND 70S), WITH NO SIGNIFICANT PUSH OF COLD ARE
EXPECTED BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.
ALBRIGHT
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 143 PM EST THU JAN 30 2025
AT A GLANCE:
- SPRING HAS FINALLY ARRIVED.
- QUIET WITH NO WEATHER ANTICIPATED.
AFTER A MISERABLE STRETCH OF WINTER THAT INCLUDED TWO WINTER STORMS,
IT LOOKS LIKE A TASTE OF SPRING IS SET TO ARRIVE EARLY IN THE LONG
TERM. TEMPERATURES WILL SOAR INTO THE 70S AND POSSIBLY 80S FOR PARTS
OF CENTRAL GEORGIA. ON AVERAGE, WE ARE LOOKING AT ANYWHERE FROM 15-
20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
FALL INTO THE UPPER 40S MIRRORING THE SAME DIFFERENCE FROM
CLIMATOLOGY THAT THE HIGHS ARE SET TO ENJOY. IF YOU LIKE BEING
OUTSIDE, THEN THIS IS YOUR KIND OF FORECAST.
TOWARDS THE END OF NEXT WEEK THE NBM IS GIVING US SOME "PLACE
HOLDER" POPS; BUT NO MORE THAN A SLIGHT CHANCE MAINLY ACROSS
NORTHERN GA. THERE ISN'T A LOT OF REAL CONFIDENCE IN THOSE RAIN
CHANCES AS GIVEN HOW FAR AWAY THOSE DAYS COMBINED WITH OVERALL LOW
CHANCES BUT IF YOU'RE LOOKING FOR RAIN YOU WON'T FIND IT UNTIL
AT THE VERY LEAST NEXT WEDNESDAY.
ENJOY THE NICE WEATHER!
VAUGHN
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 643 PM EST THU JAN 30 2025
EXPECT DETERIORATING CONDS THRU THE NIGHT AHEAD OF APPROACHING
FRONT. INITIAL BKN VFR CIGS AT 20-25KFT WILL DROP TO BKN MVFR BY
08-09Z, THEN BKN TO OVC IFR BY 14-15Z. -SHRA TO BEGIN ACROSS
NORTHERN TAF SITES BY 16-17Z, LINGERING THROUGH 22-23Z. LIFR CIGS
AND LOW-MVFR TO IFR VSBYS ARE PSBL IN PDS OF MODERATE SHRA. QUICK
IMPROVEMENT BACK TO VFR IN THE WAKE OF -SHRA BY 01-02Z.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...00Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ALL ELEMENTS.
96
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
ATHENS 45 68 43 66 / 0 90 50 0
ATLANTA 52 64 44 64 / 0 90 20 0
BLAIRSVILLE 45 58 38 61 / 10 100 10 0
CARTERSVILLE 52 64 40 64 / 10 90 10 0
COLUMBUS 52 71 44 68 / 0 90 30 0
GAINESVILLE 45 62 43 64 / 0 100 20 0
MACON 50 74 45 68 / 0 90 70 0
ROME 52 65 40 62 / 20 90 10 0
PEACHTREE CITY 52 66 42 65 / 0 90 20 0
VIDALIA 52 80 51 71 / 0 10 90 0
FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...ALBRIGHT
LONG TERM....VAUGHN
AVIATION...96
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