265
FXUS62 KFFC 310852
AFDFFC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
352 AM EST FRI JAN 31 2025
..MORNING AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 236 AM EST FRI JAN 31 2025
- STRONG STORMS WITH ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON OVER MIDDLE GEORGIA.
- MILD AND DRY THIS WEEKEND.
- UNUSUALLY WARM TEMPS EXPECTED MON-THURS WITH MAX AND MIN TEMPS
15-25 DEGREES ABOVE 30 YEAR NORMALS.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 236 AM EST FRI JAN 31 2025
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM IS LIKELIHOOD AND
STRENGTH OF CONVECTION, IF ANY, TODAY THROUGH EARLY EVENING.
QLCS AHEAD OF SFC FRONT CURRENTLY IN NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL
ALABAMA WITH FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND ISOLATED SPOTS CAPABLE OF 40+
MPH WIND GUSTS AT THE TIME OF THIS WRITING. THIS QLCS EXPECTED TO
MOVE INTO NW GA AFTER SUNRISE AND TRACK ACROSS THE STATE THROUGH
THE DAY AND EXIT BY MID EVENING. RECENT CAM GUIDANCE STARTING TO
INDICATE SLIGHTLY HIGHER SFC MOISTURE THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED AND
SPC HAS ALSO PLACED DAY 1 MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OUT OF 5) BACK
IN FAR SW PART OF CWA. BASED ON THESE OBSERVED TRENDS AND 06Z HRRR
SBCAPE FORECASTS OF A RIBBON OF 250-500 J/KG AND STP VALUES
AROUND 1 TO 1.5 AHEAD OF THE QLCS, A LITTLE MORE CONCERNED THAT
CONVECTION WILL BE STRONG AND POSSIBLY EVEN BRIEFLY SEVERE THIS
AFTERNOON OVER MIDDLE GA. FORTUNATELY, LOW LEVEL SHEAR, 0-1KM SRH
SPECIFICALLY, STILL RELATIVELY MEAGER IN THIS AREA (100-200
M2/S2), TORNADO THREAT APPEARS VERY LOW TO NEAR ZERO BUT DOESN'T
TAKE MUCH INSTABILITY IN THIS PATTERN TO SEE ISOLATED AREAS OF
STRONG WINDS.
ONCE THE QLCS MOVES OUT, WILL SEE A LULL ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE
PRECIP AND REAL SFC FRONT TO THE NW. COULD SEE SOME SCATTERED
LIGHT SHOWERS IN NORTH GA DURING THE EVENING FROM ISENTROPIC LIFT.
AS POSITIVELY-TILTED SHORT WAVE MOVES EAST OF US IN FAST MEAN
ZONAL FLOW, NOT EXPECTING ANY NW FLOW OR SIGNIFICANT DRYING/
COOLING AT THE SFC. IN FACT, FLOW EXPECTED TO BECOME WSW BY LATE
SATURDAY WITH CONTINUED MILD TEMPERATURES.
SNELSON
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 236 AM EST FRI JAN 31 2025
A GENERALLY QUIET LONG TERM PERIOD IS ON TAP. ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IS
IN AGREEMENT THAT THE MID/UPPER LEVELS WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY
EITHER QUASI-ZONAL FLOW OR WEAK RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHEAST, WITH THE
POLAR JET STREAM POSITIONED WELL TO OUR NORTH. IN THE LOWER LEVELS
AND AT THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE AND A GENERALLY UNFAVORABLE FLOW
PATTERN FOR MOISTURE RETURN WILL PROMOTE DRY CONDITIONS.
ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE DEPICTS A MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRAVERSING THE GREAT PLAINS AND OH/TN RIVER VALLEY
AMID THE QUASI-ZONAL FLOW. THE GEFS AND GEPS ALSO DEPICT A BAND OF
RELATIVELY STRONG (35-45 KTS) SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AT 850 MB OVER THE
OH/TN RIVER VALLEYS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING, WHICH
COULD INCREASE ASCENT ACROSS AT LEAST NORTH GEORGIA AND THUS MORE
EFFECTIVELY DRAW IN GULF MOISTURE. GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE
INTENSE SYNOPTIC FORCING, HAVE MAINTAINED A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
THUNDER ACROSS A PORTION OF NORTH GEORGIA. SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST PACKAGE, HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS (UP TO 20%) ACROSS NORTH
GEORGIA ON WEDNESDAY, WITH SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS (UP TO 45%)
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT ACROSS MORE OF THE FORECAST AREA.
HIGH TEMPS AND LOW TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH THE LONG TERM
PERIOD -- AS MUCH AS AROUND 20-25 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE.
MARTIN
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1227 AM EST FRI JAN 31 2025
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH 10-12Z WHEN IFR CIGS 600-800FT
WILL MOVE IN FOLLOWED BY RAIN WITH MVFR VSBYS (4-6SM) AROUND
17-20Z. INSUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR ANY TSRA. SFC WINDS WILL
SHIFT FROM SSW TO W WITH THE RAIN MOVING IN WITH SPEEDS OF
10-12KTS WITH G20-22KTS, TAPERING OFF AROUND 00Z. CIGS SHOULD ALSO
GO BACK UP TO MVFR DURING THIS WIND SHIFT AT 17-20Z AS WELL, THEN
GO TO VFR AFTER 01Z.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON IFR AND PRECIP TIMING.
HIGH CONFIDENCE ON ALL OTHER ELEMENTS.
SNELSON
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
ATHENS 68 43 65 41 / 90 60 0 0
ATLANTA 66 43 64 44 / 90 20 0 0
BLAIRSVILLE 58 38 59 39 / 100 20 0 0
CARTERSVILLE 64 41 63 42 / 90 20 0 0
COLUMBUS 71 44 68 44 / 90 30 0 0
GAINESVILLE 63 43 64 42 / 90 20 0 0
MACON 74 45 69 42 / 90 80 0 0
ROME 63 40 64 41 / 100 20 0 0
PEACHTREE CITY 67 43 65 41 / 90 20 0 0
VIDALIA 81 50 70 46 / 10 90 0 0
FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...SNELSON
LONG TERM....MARTIN
AVIATION...SNELSON
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