919
FXUS62 KFFC 311747
AFDFFC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1247 PM EST FRI JAN 31 2025
..NEW 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 236 AM EST FRI JAN 31 2025
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM IS LIKELIHOOD AND
STRENGTH OF CONVECTION, IF ANY, TODAY THROUGH EARLY EVENING.
QLCS AHEAD OF SFC FRONT CURRENTLY IN NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL
ALABAMA WITH FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND ISOLATED SPOTS CAPABLE OF 40+
MPH WIND GUSTS AT THE TIME OF THIS WRITING. THIS QLCS EXPECTED TO
MOVE INTO NW GA AFTER SUNRISE AND TRACK ACROSS THE STATE THROUGH
THE DAY AND EXIT BY MID EVENING. RECENT CAM GUIDANCE STARTING TO
INDICATE SLIGHTLY HIGHER SFC MOISTURE THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED AND
SPC HAS ALSO PLACED DAY 1 MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OUT OF 5) BACK
IN FAR SW PART OF CWA. BASED ON THESE OBSERVED TRENDS AND 06Z HRRR
SBCAPE FORECASTS OF A RIBBON OF 250-500 J/KG AND STP VALUES
AROUND 1 TO 1.5 AHEAD OF THE QLCS, A LITTLE MORE CONCERNED THAT
CONVECTION WILL BE STRONG AND POSSIBLY EVEN BRIEFLY SEVERE THIS
AFTERNOON OVER MIDDLE GA. FORTUNATELY, LOW LEVEL SHEAR, 0-1KM SRH
SPECIFICALLY, STILL RELATIVELY MEAGER IN THIS AREA (100-200
M2/S2), TORNADO THREAT APPEARS VERY LOW TO NEAR ZERO BUT DOESN'T
TAKE MUCH INSTABILITY IN THIS PATTERN TO SEE ISOLATED AREAS OF
STRONG WINDS.
ONCE THE QLCS MOVES OUT, WILL SEE A LULL ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE
PRECIP AND REAL SFC FRONT TO THE NW. COULD SEE SOME SCATTERED
LIGHT SHOWERS IN NORTH GA DURING THE EVENING FROM ISENTROPIC LIFT.
AS POSITIVELY-TILTED SHORT WAVE MOVES EAST OF US IN FAST MEAN
ZONAL FLOW, NOT EXPECTING ANY NW FLOW OR SIGNIFICANT DRYING/
COOLING AT THE SFC. IN FACT, FLOW EXPECTED TO BECOME WSW BY LATE
SATURDAY WITH CONTINUED MILD TEMPERATURES.
SNELSON
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 236 AM EST FRI JAN 31 2025
A GENERALLY QUIET LONG TERM PERIOD IS ON TAP. ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IS
IN AGREEMENT THAT THE MID/UPPER LEVELS WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY
EITHER QUASI-ZONAL FLOW OR WEAK RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHEAST, WITH THE
POLAR JET STREAM POSITIONED WELL TO OUR NORTH. IN THE LOWER LEVELS
AND AT THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE AND A GENERALLY UNFAVORABLE FLOW
PATTERN FOR MOISTURE RETURN WILL PROMOTE DRY CONDITIONS.
ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE DEPICTS A MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRAVERSING THE GREAT PLAINS AND OH/TN RIVER VALLEY
AMID THE QUASI-ZONAL FLOW. THE GEFS AND GEPS ALSO DEPICT A BAND OF
RELATIVELY STRONG (35-45 KTS) SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AT 850 MB OVER THE
OH/TN RIVER VALLEYS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING, WHICH
COULD INCREASE ASCENT ACROSS AT LEAST NORTH GEORGIA AND THUS MORE
EFFECTIVELY DRAW IN GULF MOISTURE. GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE
INTENSE SYNOPTIC FORCING, HAVE MAINTAINED A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
THUNDER ACROSS A PORTION OF NORTH GEORGIA. SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST PACKAGE, HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS (UP TO 20%) ACROSS NORTH
GEORGIA ON WEDNESDAY, WITH SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS (UP TO 45%)
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT ACROSS MORE OF THE FORECAST AREA.
HIGH TEMPS AND LOW TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH THE LONG TERM
PERIOD -- AS MUCH AS AROUND 20-25 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE.
MARTIN
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1242 PM EST FRI JAN 31 2025
A BAND OF RAIN WILL MOVE THROUGH NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA
IMPACTING TAF SITES THROUGH 02Z SATURDAY. AREAS OF IFR AND MVFR
CONDITIONS WILL ACCOMPANY THIS PRECIPITATION. RAPID IMPROVEMENT IN
CEILINGS IS ANTICIPATED BETWEEN 22Z TODAY AND 04Z SATURDAY.
ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY LINGER IN NORTH GEORGIA THROUGH 06Z, WITH
LITTLE TO NO IMPACT FOR THE ATLANTA AREA TAF SITES. WINDS WILL
TRANSITION FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHWEST FOR ALL OF NORTH AND
CENTRAL GEORGIA BY 03Z SATURDAY.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
MODERATE OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN THE KATL TAF.
CONFIDENCE IS LOWEST IN THE TIMING OF PRECIPITATION.
ALBRIGHT
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
ATHENS 68 43 65 41 / 100 70 0 0
ATLANTA 66 43 64 44 / 100 20 0 0
BLAIRSVILLE 61 38 59 39 / 100 30 0 0
CARTERSVILLE 64 41 63 42 / 100 20 0 0
COLUMBUS 71 44 68 44 / 100 30 0 0
GAINESVILLE 63 43 64 42 / 100 20 0 0
MACON 74 45 69 42 / 100 70 0 0
ROME 65 40 64 41 / 100 30 0 0
PEACHTREE CITY 67 43 65 41 / 100 20 0 0
VIDALIA 81 50 70 46 / 10 90 0 0
FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...SNELSON
LONG TERM....MARTIN
AVIATION...ALBRIGHT
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