699
FXUS62 KFFC 011155
AFDFFC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
655 AM EST SAT FEB 1 2025
..NEW 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 402 AM EST SAT FEB 1 2025
KEY MESSAGES:
- DRY AND WARM WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.
- A BRIEF WEDGE WILL BRING SLIGHTLY COOLER CONDITIONS TO THE NE
BY SUNDAY ALONG WITH MORE CLOUD COVER.
RAIN SHOWERS HAVE COME TO AN END ACROSS THE AREA, AND SKIES ARE
CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY IN MOST LOCATIONS. PATCHY FOG HAS FORMED,
MAINLY ACROSS THE NW AND W CENTRAL ZONES. SOME OF THIS FOG IS
DENSE, AND A SPECIAL WX STATEMENT HAS BEEN ISSUED. MORE WIDESPREAD
DENSE FOG IS NOT ANTICIPATED, BUT WE'LL CONTINUE TO MONITOR PRIOR
TO SUNRISE. LINGERING HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO STREAM ACROSS THE
AREA NEAR AND SE OF A COLUMBUS TO MACON LINE ASSOCIATED WITH A
STRONG SUBTROPICAL JET. 3 AM TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S
IN THE NE MOUNTAINS TO THE MID 50S ACROSS THE SE COUNTY WARNING
AREA (CWA). ALOFT, A SHORTWAVE IS PRESENTLY LIFTING NE OF THE
AREA. IN ITS WAKE, UPPER FLOW WILL RAPIDLY RETURN TO QUASI-ZONAL.
AS A RESULT, LITTLE IF ANY CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED.
LOW CLOUDS ARE FORECAST TO CREEP BACK INTO EXTREME N GA TODAY.
ADDITIONALLY, AFOREMENTIONED HIGH CLOUDS WILL SLOWLY SINK S.
OTHERWISE, MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE ANTICIPATED. HIGH TEMPERATURES
TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 50S IN THE N TO NEAR 70 IN THE
EXTREME SE. LOW TEMPERATURES SUNDAY MORNING ARE FORECAST TO RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA.
A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE TO THE N WILL MOVE TO A POSITION
FAVORABLE FOR SOME COLD AIR DAMMING TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. THIS WILL
BE SHORT-LIVED, AND THE MAIN IMPACTS WILL BE AN INCREASE IN LOW
CLOUDS AND SLIGHTLY COOLER DAYTIME HIGHS ACROSS THE NE. /SEC
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 402 AM EST SAT FEB 1 2025
KEY MESSAGES:
- WARM, DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH MIDWEEK.
- RAIN AND STORM CHANCES RETURN FOR A PORTION OF THE FORECAST
AREA DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK (WITH CONTINUED WARM
CONDITIONS).
THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY A
BROAD, EXPANSIVE MID/UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS
THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CONUS.
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IS PROGGING A JET STREAK TO PUSH IN FROM THE
PACIFIC OVER THE WEST COAST AND MOUNTAIN WEST BY MIDWEEK, PUSHING
FURTHER EASTWARD OVER THE INTERIOR OF THE COUNTRY WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY. MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST WILL BE POSITIONED UNDER THE
RIGHT FRONT QUADRANT OF THIS JET STREAK, WHICH IS GENERALLY
ASSOCIATED WITH SUBSIDENCE (SINKING AIR). THAT SAID, LOOKING AT
THE MID/LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE, ENSEMBLES DEPICT AN 850 MB
DISTURBANCE TRAVERSING THE CENTRAL MS VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY, THEN
THE OH/TN RIVER VALLEY THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA AHEAD OF THIS
DISTURBANCE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THINKING THAT MORE OF
THE FORECAST AREA WILL SEE SHOWERS ON THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS THE
DISTURBANCE MOVES OVER THE OH/TN RIVER VALLEY. SIMILAR TO THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGE, TOTAL QPF RANGES FROM JUST A TRACE TO
AROUND 0.50".
SOME DETAILS ON SOURCES OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE RAIN AND
STORM CHANCES DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK... THE GEFS
DEPICTS NOTABLY WEAKER 850 MB WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
DISTURBANCE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY THAN DO THE EPS AND GEPS, WITH
THE LATTER TWO PROGGING A ~50 KNOT SPEED MAX OVER THE OH/TN RIVER
VALLEY. WHILE THIS SPEED MAX WOULD BE WELL TO OUR NORTH, THE
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH IT COULD DRIVE STRONGER GULF
MOISTURE ADVECTION ACROSS AT LEAST A PORTION OF NORTH AND CENTRAL
GEORGIA. THERE IS ALSO CONSIDERABLE MODEL SPREAD REGARDING HOW
STRONG THE UPPER-LEVEL JET CORE IS, WHICH WOULD IMPACT THE STRENGTH
OF THE SURFACE LOW THAT FORMS IN RESPONSE TO THIS FORCING ALOFT.
HIGH TEMPS AND LOW TEMPS WILL BE UNSEASONABLY WARM THROUGH THE
LONG TERM PERIOD -- AS MUCH AS 20-25 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE.
MARTIN
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 652 AM EST SAT FEB 1 2025
AREAS OF FOG HAVE FORMED ACROSS PORTIONS OF N GA, SO OF IT
OCCASIONALLY DENSE BUT FAIRLY SHALLOW. WINDS WILL REMAIN GENERALLY
LIGHT OUT OF THE NW THROUGH THE DAY. A SHIFT IN WIND DIRECTION TO
THE NE-E IS ANTICIPATED BY EVENING, BUT SPEEDS WILL BE VERY LIGHT BY
THAT TIME.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...12Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM TO HIGH FOR INITIAL CIGS AND TIMING OF WIND SHIFT TO NE,
HIGH FOR OTHER ELEMENTS.
SEC
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
ATHENS 64 41 62 40 / 0 0 0 0
ATLANTA 62 42 65 43 / 0 0 0 0
BLAIRSVILLE 57 38 55 39 / 0 0 0 0
CARTERSVILLE 60 41 65 41 / 0 0 0 0
COLUMBUS 67 43 70 44 / 0 0 0 0
GAINESVILLE 62 42 60 42 / 0 0 0 0
MACON 68 42 68 42 / 0 0 0 0
ROME 62 39 67 40 / 0 0 0 0
PEACHTREE CITY 64 40 66 41 / 0 0 0 0
VIDALIA 70 46 71 48 / 0 0 0 0
FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...SEC
LONG TERM....MARTIN
AVIATION...SEC
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