793
FXUS62 KFFC 280543
AFDFFC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
143 AM EDT FRI MAR 28 2025
..NEW 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION
SHORT TERM
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 221 PM EDT THU MAR 27 2025
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST OF THE CAROLINAS
TONIGHT. THE RIDGE AXIS WILL CONTINUE TO HUG THE COAST OVERNIGHT WITH
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS EXPECTED FOR MOST PLACES. LIGHT SOUTHEAST
SURFACE FLOW WILL CONTINUE INTO TOMORROW NIGHT. MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE
ENERGY WILL LEND TO SOME MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS AT TIMES.
TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE AROUND 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR.
NLISTEMAA
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 221 PM EDT THU MAR 27 2025
KEY MESSAGES:
- RAIN CHANCES RETURN OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS.
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL START WITH A WEAK UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SE
U.S. AND A SHORTWAVE THE S MS VALLEY. THE SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO
MOVE ENE AS IT DAMPENS OUT THROUGH THE SUNDAY. BY SUNDAY NIGHT, THE
SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE OFF THE SE U.S. COAST, WITH UPPER FLOW BECOMING
MORE ZONAL ACROSS THE AREA.
AT THE SURFACE, LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON SATURDAY
WILL DIVE SSE INTO THE WEEKEND AS IT WEAKENS. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
CONTINUE TO ADVECT INCREASING MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE GULF
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS, IN CONCERT WITH INCREASING INSTABILITY
AND DYNAMIC FORCING (ALBEIT WANING) WILL SUPPORT THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT. THE BEST CHANCES OF RAIN AND THE HIGHEST QPF IS
FORECAST TO PRECEDE A COLD FRONT WHICH WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA LATE
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
STORM TOTAL RAINFALL FROM THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK IS
FORECAST TO RANGE FROM AROUND 1.5" IN THE N TO AROUND THREE QUARTERS
OF AN INCH IN THE SE. QPF AMOUNTS DURING THIS EVENT HAVE INCREASED
ACROSS THE S, AND THIS IS MOSTLY DUE TO INCREASED INSTABILITY AND
CONVECTION AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT DURING THE DAY MONDAY.
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE.
SPC HAS NW GEORGIA IN A 15% SEVERE RISK AREA FOR SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT, WITH ANOTHER 15% RISK AREA ACROSS MOST OF THE STATE FOR
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. CAPE VALUES ARE FORECAST TO RAMP UP TO
AROUND 2000 J/KG WITH EFFECTIVE SHEAR OF AT LEAST 40 KTS DURING PEAK
DAYTIME HEATING, SO SEVERE PARAMETERS WILL BE IN PLACE. THE GREATEST
THREAT APPEARS TO BE GUSTY WINDS WITH LESSER THREATS FOR TORNADOES
AND HAIL.
ANOTHER, QUICK-MOVING STORM SYSTEM MAY SWEEP ACROSS THE OH VALLEY
AROUND THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, BUT MODEL AGREEMENT IS LOW DURING
THIS TIME PERIOD.
TEMPERATURES WILL RUN WELL ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD
(10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL), ALTHOUGH READINGS WILL DROP BACK
CLOSER TO NORMAL BEHIND THE FRONT EARLY NEXT WEEK (STILL ABOUT 5
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL). /SEC
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 143 AM EDT FRI MAR 28 2025
VFR TO CONTINUE THRU THE TAF PD WITH PRIMARILY SCT-BKN CIGS AT 15-
25KFT. AFTERNOON FEW-SCT CIGS AT 5-8KFT TODAY FROM ATL AND SOUTH.
WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT OUT OF THE SE/SSE AT 7KTS OR LESS, BUT MAY
GO VRB/NEARLY DUE S AT TIMES.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
HIGH ALL ELEMENTS.
SM
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
ATHENS 47 80 57 78 / 0 0 0 0
ATLANTA 52 80 60 79 / 0 0 0 10
BLAIRSVILLE 47 75 54 72 / 0 0 0 10
CARTERSVILLE 51 81 59 80 / 0 0 0 10
COLUMBUS 52 83 59 82 / 0 0 0 10
GAINESVILLE 50 78 56 77 / 0 0 0 10
MACON 49 83 57 81 / 0 0 0 0
ROME 48 82 58 79 / 0 0 0 10
PEACHTREE CITY 48 81 58 79 / 0 0 0 10
VIDALIA 51 83 57 82 / 0 0 0 0
FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...NLISTEMAA
LONG TERM....SEC
AVIATION...SM
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