701
FXUS62 KFFC 280840
AFDFFC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
440 AM EDT FRI MAR 28 2025
..MORNING AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 408 AM EDT FRI MAR 28 2025
- DRY AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF THE
SHORT TERM PERIOD. MOISTURE GENERALLY CLIMBING.
- RAIN CHANCES RETURN THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
- DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD, WARM IN THE DAYTIME WITH HIGHS IN
THE 70S AND 80S, AND MILD OVERNIGHTS WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 50S
AND 60S.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 408 AM EDT FRI MAR 28 2025
THE SFC HIGH WHICH HAS KEPT WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS OVER THE AREA
WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EASTWARD AS A MID AND UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
BRINGS MORE STACKED SOUTHERLY FLOW. MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO
INCREASE OVER THE COMING DAYS WITH PWATS RISING ABOVE 1.0" BY
SUNDAY MORNING. WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST WITH
OUR FIRST POPS ENTERING THE END OF THE SHORT TERM OUTLOOK
(HOPEFULLY THIS WILL HELP TO CLEAR OUT SOME OF THE POLLEN IN THE
AIR).
SM
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 408 AM EDT FRI MAR 28 2025
MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE AN ACTIVE SYNOPTIC PATTERN
THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. THE MID-/UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING THAT
HAS PREVAILED ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST WILL ABATE AS A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH TRAVERSES THE MS RIVER VALLEY SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY. ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE DEPICTS THIS SHORTWAVE DAMPENING AND/OR
SHIFTING NORTHWARD AS THE LARGER SCALE TROUGH CONTINUES TO TRACK
EASTWARD SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. MEANWHILE, A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM INITIALLY OVER THE GREAT PLAINS WILL RESPOND TO THE
MID-/UPPER-LEVEL FORCING AND TRACK NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE OH
RIVER VALLEY AND EASTERN GREAT LAKES. ADVECTION OF WARM, MOIST AIR
WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF THIS LOW, WHICH WILL PRIME THE SOUTHEAST FOR
DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
SHOWERS ARE FORECAST TO BEGIN ON SATURDAY NIGHT, INCREASING IN
COVERAGE ON SUNDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON. PROGGED SHEAR PARAMETERS
ARE UNREMARKABLE DURING THIS TIME FRAME, AND MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES CONTINUE TO LOOK MEAGER (LESS THAN 6.0 C/KM) WITH MARGINAL
INSTABILITY (MUCAPE LESS THAN 500 J/KG) SO EXPECTING STORMS TO BE
SUB-SEVERE DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY.
THE INITIAL FOCUS OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD CONTINUES TO BE THE
SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL ON SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THE STORM
MODE WILL LIKELY BE LINEAR (QLCS/SQUALL LINE) AS CONVECTION
ORGANIZES ALONG THE COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE AFOREMENTIONED
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WELL TO OUR NORTHEAST. A FEW CONSIDERATIONS
REGARDING THE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL: 1) WHETHER OR NOT
CONVECTION IS CO-LOCATED WITH FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL DYNAMICS --
THE TROUGH AXIS AND/OR A SPEED MAX; 2) THE TIME OF DAY THAT THE
CONVECTION WILL PUSH THROUGH AND THUS IF DIURNAL HEATING WILL AID
IN DESTABILIZATION AND INTENSIFICATION; AND 3) TO WHAT DEGREE THE
LINE OF STORMS WEAKENS AND/OR REINVIGORATES AS IT TRACKS EASTWARD
THROUGH THE STATE. FOR NOW, THE ENVIRONMENT AHEAD OF THE FRONT
CONTINUES TO LOOK FAVORABLE FOR STRONG UPDRAFTS WITH MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES OF 7.0+ C/KM AND MUCAPE OF 1000+ J/KG. SURFACE TO 500
MB BULK SHEAR IS PROGGED TO BE 35-55 KTS, WHICH HIGHLIGHTS THE
POTENTIAL FOR AN ORGANIZED LINE OF STORMS.
SPC HAS INTRODUCED A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2 OUT OF 5) FOR SEVERE
STORMS ACROSS NORTHWEST GEORGIA ON SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY
MORNING. STRAIGHT-LINE WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY HAZARD WITH A
RELATIVELY LOW THREAT OF BRIEF TORNADOES AND HAIL. EXPECT THAT
TIMING AND INTENSITY WILL BECOME BETTER DEFINED OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS AS MORE CAM/HI-RES MODEL GUIDANCE COMES INTO VIEW.
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD (TUESDAY, WEDNESDAY,
AND THURSDAY) THERE IS AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CWA EACH DAY, COURTESY OF ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW MOVING ACROSS THE MID-SECTION OF
THE COUNTRY, WHILE MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST.
A CURSORY LOOK AT SOME SEVERE WEATHER COMPOSITE PARAMETERS
SUGGESTS THAT THIS MIDWEEK EVENT WILL BEAR WATCHING.
MARTIN
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 143 AM EDT FRI MAR 28 2025
VFR TO CONTINUE THRU THE TAF PD WITH PRIMARILY SCT-BKN CIGS AT
15- 25KFT. AFTERNOON FEW-SCT CIGS AT 5-8KFT TODAY FROM ATL AND
SOUTH. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT OUT OF THE SE/SSE AT 7KTS OR LESS,
BUT MAY GO VRB/NEARLY DUE S AT TIMES.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
HIGH ALL ELEMENTS.
SM
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
ATHENS 80 57 78 59 / 0 0 0 30
ATLANTA 81 60 79 61 / 0 0 10 30
BLAIRSVILLE 74 52 72 54 / 0 0 10 30
CARTERSVILLE 81 58 80 59 / 0 0 10 40
COLUMBUS 83 60 81 61 / 0 0 10 30
GAINESVILLE 79 57 76 60 / 0 0 0 30
MACON 82 58 81 60 / 0 0 0 20
ROME 82 57 80 59 / 0 0 10 40
PEACHTREE CITY 81 58 80 59 / 0 0 10 30
VIDALIA 83 58 82 61 / 0 0 0 20
FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...SM
LONG TERM....MARTIN
AVIATION...SM
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