834
FXUS62 KFFC 282322
AFDFFC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
722 PM EDT FRI MAR 28 2025
..NEW 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION
SHORT TERM
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 226 PM EDT FRI MAR 28 2025
500MB ANALYSIS SHOWS AN OPEN LOW ACROSS EASTERN TX WITH SW FLOW
ALOFT ACROSS THE CWA. THE SW FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
PERIOD. THE MID LEVEL LOW WILL PUSH EASTWARD BUT CONTINUE TO FILL AS
IT DOES SO. THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW CENTER IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE CWA BEGINNING TOMORROW NIGHT.
AT THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE HAS MOVED OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST IS
AN SITUATED ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. A COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO
PUSH OUT OF THE FOUR CORNERS REGION TONIGHT AND MOVE EAST ACROSS THE
CENTRAL US TOMORROW AND TOMORROW NIGHT. THE BOUNDARY SHOULD REMAIN
WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.
TONIGHT AND THE EARLY PART OF TOMORROW SHOULD REMAIN DRY. SOME
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS AS THE MID LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES EAST
ACROSS THE AREA. FOR NOW, THUNDER CHANCES REMAIN LOW WITH THIS SYSTEM
AND WILL NOT MENTION AT THIS TIME.
NLISTEMAA
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 226 PM EDT FRI MAR 28 2025
KEY MESSAGES:
- STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL START WITH A WEAKENING UPPER TROUGH FROM S
GA INTO THE E GULF. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH E FROM THE CENTRAL
MS VALLEY TO THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION FROM LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
BOTH OF THESE FEATURES WILL BE FAIRLY WEAK, BUT MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY WILL BE INCREASING. ADDITIONALLY, AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT WILL PROVIDE ADDITIONAL LIFT. AS A RESULT, THE CHANCES OF
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE INCREASING. STORMS WILL BE LESS ORGANIZED ON
SUNDAY AFTERNOON, BUT A MORE ORGANIZED LINE OF STORMS IS FORECAST TO
APPROACH NW GA SUNDAY EVENING. THESE STORMS MAY WEAKEN SUNDAY NIGHT,
BUT RE-DEVELOPMENT IS FORECAST DURING THE DAY MONDAY ACROSS THE AREA.
SPC HAS NW GEORGIA IN A SLIGHT SEVERE RISK AREA SUNDAY NIGHT, WITH A
15% RISK AREA ACROSS MOST OF THE STATE FOR MONDAY. CAPE VALUES ARE
FORECAST TO RAMP UP TO OVER 1500 J/KG WITH EFFECTIVE SHEAR OF AT
LEAST 40 KTS DURING PEAK DAYTIME HEATING ON MONDAY, SO SEVERE
PARAMETERS WILL BE IN PLACE. THE GREATEST THREAT APPEARS TO BE GUSTY
WINDS WITH LESSER THREATS FOR TORNADOES AND HAIL.
QPF AMOUNTS WITH THIS STORM SYSTEM CONTINUE TO BECOME MORE UNIFORM
ACROSS THE AREA DUE TO THE ANTICIPATED RE-DEVELOPMENT OF HEAVIER
RAINS ON MONDAY. STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE FORECAST TO AVERAGE
AROUND 1.5" ALMOST AREA-WIDE, WITH SLIGHTLY LOWER TOTALS IN THE SE
ZONES. WPC IF PAINTING A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AS
CONVECTION SWEEPS ACROSS THE AREA. THE GREATEST RISK OF LOCALIZED
FLOODING WOULD BE IN AREAS WITH TRAINING STORMS OR HEAVIER STORMS.
RIVER FLOODING IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.
ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM MAY SWEEP ACROSS THE OH VALLEY AROUND THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, WITH MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL RUN WELL ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD
(10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL), ALTHOUGH READINGS WILL DROP BACK
CLOSER TO NORMAL BEHIND THE FRONT EARLY NEXT WEEK (STILL ABOUT 5
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL). A RETURN TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS
FORECAST BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. /SEC
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 714 PM EDT FRI MAR 28 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. INITIAL HIGH
CLOUDS 20-25 KFT WILL TREND TOWARD MIDLEVEL CIGS 6-10 KFT BY
14-16Z SATURDAY. WINDS WILL REMAIN PRIMARILY SSE TO SE AT 5-10
KTS.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...00Z UPDATE...
HIGH CONFIDENCE.
RW
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
ATHENS 56 79 60 76 / 0 0 40 80
ATLANTA 60 79 62 75 / 0 10 50 90
BLAIRSVILLE 53 73 54 67 / 0 10 50 90
CARTERSVILLE 59 79 60 75 / 0 20 50 90
COLUMBUS 60 81 62 79 / 0 10 40 80
GAINESVILLE 56 76 60 72 / 0 10 50 90
MACON 59 81 61 78 / 0 0 30 80
ROME 58 79 61 76 / 0 20 60 80
PEACHTREE CITY 58 79 60 76 / 0 10 50 90
VIDALIA 59 81 62 80 / 0 0 20 70
FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...NLISTEMAA
LONG TERM....SEC
AVIATION...RW
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