175
FXUS62 KFFC 291059
AFDFFC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
659 AM EDT SAT MAR 29 2025
..NEW 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 657 AM EDT SAT MAR 29 2025
- A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
- INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN A LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
SUNDAY OVERNIGHT THROUGH MONDAY EVENING.
- GRADUAL WARMING TREND WITH HIGH TEMPS REACHING 90 DEGREES
ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL GEORGIA AT THE END OF NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 417 AM EDT SAT MAR 29 2025
UPPER LEVEL FLOW FEATURES A LARGER SCALE RIDGE AND EMBEDDED
SHORTWAVE OVER THE SOUTHEAST CONUS AHEAD OF A LARGER TROUGH OVER
THE WESTERN US. AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES OVERTOP THE CWA, SOUTHERLY
FLOW BECOMES MORE STACKED AND INCREASES MOISTURE TRANSPORT. LIFT,
VIA THE SHORTWAVE AND ISENTROPIC/TOPOGRAPHIC UPGLIDE, WILL
INITIATE SHOWERS ACROSS NORTH GA AS EARLY AS SATURDAY AFTERNOON
(MAYBE A FEW LIGHT SPRINKLES MID SATURDAY MORNING). SHOWERS MAY
ALSO BE POSSIBLE INTO CENTRAL GA, HOWEVER THESE WILL BE LIGHTER
AND MORE ISOLATED IN NATURE. A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH ANY PRECIPITATION THAT FORMS IN THE AFTERNOON TO
LATE EVENING. PROBS FOR CAPE OVER 100 J/KG PEAK WITH DIURNAL
HEATING TODAY AT 60-80%, SUGGESTING THUNDERSTORMS WOULD BE SHORT
LIVED AND RETURN TO MOSTLY JUST RAIN AFTER SUNSET.
MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP ACROSS THE CWA
AS THE STRONGER TROUGH, CURRENTLY OUT WEST, MOVES TO OUR NORTH
OVERNIGHT SATURDAY. GREATER SOUTHERLY FLOW, MOISTURE AVAILABILITY,
AND DIURNAL HEATING WILL MEAN INCREASED COVERAGE IN THUNDERSTORMS
AS WELL. MEAN CAPE VALUES CURRENTLY SIT CLOSER TO 1000 J/KG
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL WINDS MAY BE ABLE TO
ELONGATE HODOGRAPHS FAR ENOUGH AHEAD OF THE INCOMING COLD FRONT TO
GET STORMS TURNING. WILL NEED TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON STORMS IN
THE WARM SECTOR, PARTICULARLY IN CENTRAL GA. THE MAIN HAZARDS
WOULD BE DAMAGING WINDS AND EVEN AN ISOLATED TORNADO. LIMITED MID
AND LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES SUGGEST A MORE LIMITED HAIL THREAT.
PWATS IN THE WARM SECTOR OF OVER 1.5" ALSO SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL
FOR EFFICIENT RAIN MAKERS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.
SM
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 417 AM EDT SAT MAR 29 2025
THE LONG TERM PERIOD PICKS UP ON SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING, DURING WHICH TIME A LINE OF STORMS IS EXPECTED TO PUSH
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST, MOVING INTO GEORGIA FROM THE WEST. NOW
WITHIN THE WINDOW OF SOME OF THE CAMS/HI-RES MODELS (NAM, NAM 3KM,
AND RDPS -- THE LATTER IS THE CANADIAN 10 KM REGIONAL MODEL), ALL
SUGGEST THAT THE LINE OF STORMS WILL ARRIVE IN NORTHWEST GEORGIA
EARLY MONDAY MORNING. PRE-FRONTAL SHOWERS AND STORMS (SOME OF
WHICH COULD BE STRONG) CAN BE EXPECTED ON SUNDAY NIGHT AMID THE
WAA REGIME IN PLACE AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING LINE, AS WAS MENTIONED
IN THE SHORT TERM DISCUSSION.
THE QLCS/SQUALL LINE WILL BE DRIVEN BY A COLD FRONT EXTENDING
FROM A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT IS PROGGED TO BE POSITIONED OVER
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND SOUTHEASTERN CANADA. SPC IS
MAINTAINING A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2 OUT OF 5) FOR SEVERE STORMS
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING ACROSS NORTHWEST GEORGIA, GIVEN
THE WARM, HUMID, AND UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT THAT WILL BE IN PLACE.
SPECIFICALLY, PROGGED MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AS HIGH AS ~8.0 C/KM
INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG UPDRAFTS AND PROGGED MUCAPE OF
500-1500 J/KG (AND NOT MUCH CIN) FURTHER SUPPORTS THE POTENTIAL
FOR STRONG TO SEVERE CONVECTION. THESE INSTABILITY PARAMETERS ALSO
SUGGEST THAT LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE. THAT SAID, GIVEN THE
LINEAR ORGANIZATION OF THE CONVECTION, STRAIGHT-LINE WINDS WILL BE
THE PRIMARY HAZARD. THE POTENTIAL FOR A BRIEF TORNADO REMAINS
RELATIVELY LOW, BUT NOT ZERO.
THE QUESTION MARK FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING IS THE
EVOLUTION OF THE LINE OF STORMS AS IT TRACKS EASTWARD ACROSS THE
STATE -- TO WHAT DEGREE IS CONVECTION REINVIGORATED BY DAYTIME
HEATING? ALOFT, THE TROUGH AXIS WILL PASS OVER THE STATE THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING, WITH INCREASED ASCENT COURTESY OF THE
RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A JET STREAK POSITIONED ON THE EASTERN
SIDE OF THE TROUGH. THE AFOREMENTIONED CAM/HI-RES GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THAT DAYTIME HEATING WILL DESTABILIZE THE ENVIRONMENT
ENOUGH FOR 500-1500 J/KG OF MUCAPE TO BE REALIZED AHEAD OF THE
LINE OF STORMS (AND AGAIN, NOT MUCH CIN LOOKS TO BE PRESENT).
THUS, STORMS WILL LIKELY REMAIN CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.
ADDITIONALLY, PROGGED EFFECTIVE INFLOW SRH OF 250+ M2/S2 SUGGESTS
THAT A BRIEF TORNADO EMBEDDED IN THE LINE OF STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE. SPC IS MAINTAINING A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2 OUT OF 5)
ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA ON MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS WELL, BUT
WE MAY SEE THIS RISK AREA ADJUSTED IN LATER UPDATES TODAY OR
TOMORROW TO BETTER CAPTURE THE TIMING AND EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF
THE LINE OF STORMS.
WHILE SOME OF THE STORMS WILL BE HEAVY RAINFALL PRODUCERS, THE
FORWARD MOTION OF THE LINE SHOULD PRECLUDE FLASH FLOODING.
LOCALIZED NUISANCE FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY STORMS THAT
ARE ESPECIALLY STRONG AND OCCUR OVER AN AREA WITH POOR DRAINAGE.
TOTAL RAINFALL FROM SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT IS FORECAST
TO RANGE FROM 0.75" TO 1.50".
HAVE GONE WITH NO POPS ON TUESDAY AS THE COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP
THROUGH THE CWA ON MONDAY NIGHT, USHERING IN MUCH DRIER AIR.
SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS RETURN ON WEDNESDAY AND PERSIST ON
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS A MID-/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AND ATTENDANT
SURFACE LOW SWEEPING ACROSS THE MS RIVER VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES
REGION COULD SUPPORT ANOTHER PUSH OF WARM, MOIST AIR ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST, AND THUS SHOWERS AND STORMS. AS MENTIONED IN THE
FORECAST PACKAGE YESTERDAY (FRIDAY) MORNING, A CURSORY LOOK AT
SOME SEVERE WEATHER COMPOSITE PARAMETERS SUGGESTS THAT THE
FORECAST WILL BEAR WATCHING.
MARTIN
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 657 AM EDT SAT MAR 29 2025
VFR DETERIORATE THROUGH TAF PERIOD. INITIAL MIDLEVEL CIGS AROUND 6KFT
THIS MORNING AND THICKEN THROUGH 00Z. CIGS DROP FURTHER FROM S TO
N AND W TO E TO AROUND 1-2KFT AFTER 6Z WITH VCSH ACROSS MUCH OF
THE AREA. INCREASING -SHRA COVERAGE OVERNIGHT. WINDS REMAIN
PRIMARILY SSE TO SE AT 5-10KTS. CIGS DROP FURTHER.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...12Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CIGS LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
HIGH ALL OTHER ELEMENTS.
SM
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
ATHENS 77 59 74 63 / 10 50 90 70
ATLANTA 77 62 75 64 / 20 50 90 70
BLAIRSVILLE 71 54 67 58 / 30 60 90 90
CARTERSVILLE 78 59 76 61 / 20 60 90 70
COLUMBUS 79 61 79 64 / 30 50 80 30
GAINESVILLE 75 60 71 64 / 20 60 90 80
MACON 79 61 79 64 / 10 40 80 40
ROME 78 59 75 61 / 30 60 80 80
PEACHTREE CITY 77 60 76 63 / 20 50 90 60
VIDALIA 80 62 81 64 / 10 20 80 30
FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...SM
LONG TERM....MARTIN
AVIATION...SM
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