521
FXUS62 KFFC 291759
AFDFFC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
159 PM EDT SAT MAR 29 2025
..NEW 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 417 AM EDT SAT MAR 29 2025
UPPER LEVEL FLOW FEATURES A LARGER SCALE RIDGE AND EMBEDDED
SHORTWAVE OVER THE SOUTHEAST CONUS AHEAD OF A LARGER TROUGH OVER THE
WESTERN US. AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES OVERTOP THE CWA, SOUTHERLY FLOW
BECOMES MORE STACKED AND INCREASES MOISTURE TRANSPORT. LIFT, VIA THE
SHORTWAVE AND ISENTROPIC/TOPOGRAPHIC UPGLIDE, WILL INITIATE SHOWERS
ACROSS NORTH GA AS EARLY AS SATURDAY AFTERNOON (MAYBE A FEW LIGHT
SPRINKLES MID SATURDAY MORNING). SHOWERS MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE INTO
CENTRAL GA, HOWEVER THESE WILL BE LIGHTER AND MORE ISOLATED IN
NATURE. A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY
PRECIPITATION THAT FORMS IN THE AFTERNOON TO LATE EVENING. PROBS FOR
CAPE OVER 100 J/KG PEAK WITH DIURNAL HEATING TODAY AT 60-80%,
SUGGESTING THUNDERSTORMS WOULD BE SHORT LIVED AND RETURN TO MOSTLY
JUST RAIN AFTER SUNSET.
MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP ACROSS THE CWA AS
THE STRONGER TROUGH, CURRENTLY OUT WEST, MOVES TO OUR NORTH OVERNIGHT
SATURDAY. GREATER SOUTHERLY FLOW, MOISTURE AVAILABILITY, AND DIURNAL
HEATING WILL MEAN INCREASED COVERAGE IN THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL. MEAN
CAPE VALUES CURRENTLY SIT CLOSER TO 1000 J/KG SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL WINDS MAY BE ABLE TO ELONGATE HODOGRAPHS FAR
ENOUGH AHEAD OF THE INCOMING COLD FRONT TO GET STORMS TURNING. WILL
NEED TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON STORMS IN THE WARM SECTOR, PARTICULARLY
IN CENTRAL GA. THE MAIN HAZARDS WOULD BE DAMAGING WINDS AND EVEN AN
ISOLATED TORNADO. LIMITED MID AND LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES SUGGEST A
MORE LIMITED HAIL THREAT. PWATS IN THE WARM SECTOR OF OVER 1.5" ALSO
SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR EFFICIENT RAIN MAKERS AND LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL.
SM
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 417 AM EDT SAT MAR 29 2025
THE LONG TERM PERIOD PICKS UP ON SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING,
DURING WHICH TIME A LINE OF STORMS IS EXPECTED TO PUSH ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST, MOVING INTO GEORGIA FROM THE WEST. NOW WITHIN THE WINDOW
OF SOME OF THE CAMS/HI-RES MODELS (NAM, NAM 3KM, AND RDPS -- THE
LATTER IS THE CANADIAN 10 KM REGIONAL MODEL), ALL SUGGEST THAT THE
LINE OF STORMS WILL ARRIVE IN NORTHWEST GEORGIA EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
PRE-FRONTAL SHOWERS AND STORMS (SOME OF WHICH COULD BE STRONG) CAN
BE EXPECTED ON SUNDAY NIGHT AMID THE WAA REGIME IN PLACE AHEAD OF THE
ADVANCING LINE, AS WAS MENTIONED IN THE SHORT TERM DISCUSSION.
THE QLCS/SQUALL LINE WILL BE DRIVEN BY A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT IS PROGGED TO BE POSITIONED OVER THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND SOUTHEASTERN CANADA. SPC IS MAINTAINING A
SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2 OUT OF 5) FOR SEVERE STORMS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY MORNING ACROSS NORTHWEST GEORGIA, GIVEN THE WARM, HUMID, AND
UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT THAT WILL BE IN PLACE. SPECIFICALLY, PROGGED
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AS HIGH AS ~8.0 C/KM INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR
STRONG UPDRAFTS AND PROGGED MUCAPE OF 500-1500 J/KG (AND NOT MUCH
CIN) FURTHER SUPPORTS THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE CONVECTION.
THESE INSTABILITY PARAMETERS ALSO SUGGEST THAT LARGE HAIL WILL BE
POSSIBLE. THAT SAID, GIVEN THE LINEAR ORGANIZATION OF THE CONVECTION,
STRAIGHT-LINE WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY HAZARD. THE POTENTIAL FOR A
BRIEF TORNADO REMAINS RELATIVELY LOW, BUT NOT ZERO.
THE QUESTION MARK FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING IS THE EVOLUTION
OF THE LINE OF STORMS AS IT TRACKS EASTWARD ACROSS THE STATE -- TO
WHAT DEGREE IS CONVECTION REINVIGORATED BY DAYTIME HEATING? ALOFT,
THE TROUGH AXIS WILL PASS OVER THE STATE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING, WITH INCREASED ASCENT COURTESY OF THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION
OF A JET STREAK POSITIONED ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE TROUGH. THE
AFOREMENTIONED CAM/HI-RES GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT DAYTIME HEATING WILL
DESTABILIZE THE ENVIRONMENT ENOUGH FOR 500-1500 J/KG OF MUCAPE TO BE
REALIZED AHEAD OF THE LINE OF STORMS (AND AGAIN, NOT MUCH CIN LOOKS
TO BE PRESENT). THUS, STORMS WILL LIKELY REMAIN CAPABLE OF DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS. ADDITIONALLY, PROGGED EFFECTIVE INFLOW SRH OF 250+ M2/S2
SUGGESTS THAT A BRIEF TORNADO EMBEDDED IN THE LINE OF STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE. SPC IS MAINTAINING A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2 OUT OF 5) ACROSS
THE ENTIRE CWA ON MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS WELL, BUT WE MAY
SEE THIS RISK AREA ADJUSTED IN LATER UPDATES TODAY OR TOMORROW TO
BETTER CAPTURE THE TIMING AND EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE LINE OF
STORMS.
WHILE SOME OF THE STORMS WILL BE HEAVY RAINFALL PRODUCERS, THE
FORWARD MOTION OF THE LINE SHOULD PRECLUDE FLASH FLOODING. LOCALIZED
NUISANCE FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY STORMS THAT ARE
ESPECIALLY STRONG AND OCCUR OVER AN AREA WITH POOR DRAINAGE. TOTAL
RAINFALL FROM SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT IS FORECAST TO RANGE
FROM 0.75" TO 1.50".
HAVE GONE WITH NO POPS ON TUESDAY AS THE COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP
THROUGH THE CWA ON MONDAY NIGHT, USHERING IN MUCH DRIER AIR. SLIGHT
CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS RETURN ON WEDNESDAY AND PERSIST ON THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY AS A MID-/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AND ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW
SWEEPING ACROSS THE MS RIVER VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES REGION COULD
SUPPORT ANOTHER PUSH OF WARM, MOIST AIR ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST, AND
THUS SHOWERS AND STORMS. AS MENTIONED IN THE FORECAST PACKAGE
YESTERDAY (FRIDAY) MORNING, A CURSORY LOOK AT SOME SEVERE WEATHER
COMPOSITE PARAMETERS SUGGESTS THAT THE FORECAST WILL BEAR WATCHING.
MARTIN
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 149 PM EDT SAT MAR 29 2025
MULTI-LAYERED CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE AS DEEP LAYER ATMOSPHERIC
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY INCREASE. HOWEVER, CIGS ARE GENERALLY
FORECAST TO REMAIN VFR UNTIL SHOWER ACTIVITY BEGINS TO DEVELOP
SUNDAY MORNING. AT THAT TIME, MVFR CIGS ARE FORECAST TO BEGIN TO
DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA AND EXPAND. HAVE INCLUDED A PROB30 GROUP FOR
THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AT ATL AS INSTABILITY INCREASES. SE
WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD, ALTHOUGH WINDS MAY
OCCASIONALLY SHIFT TO S TO SSW WITH DAYTIME MIXING. A FEW GUSTS TO 18
KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON, BUT SPEEDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN
FAIRLY LIGHT.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
LOW TO MEDIUM TO EXACT START TIME OF PRECIP AND MVFR CIGS, MEDIUM TO
HIGH FOR OTHER ELEMENTS.
SEC
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
ATHENS 77 59 74 63 / 10 50 90 70
ATLANTA 77 62 75 64 / 20 50 90 70
BLAIRSVILLE 71 54 67 58 / 30 60 90 90
CARTERSVILLE 78 59 76 61 / 20 60 90 70
COLUMBUS 79 61 79 64 / 30 50 80 30
GAINESVILLE 75 60 71 64 / 20 60 90 80
MACON 79 61 79 64 / 10 40 80 40
ROME 78 59 75 61 / 30 60 80 80
PEACHTREE CITY 77 60 76 63 / 20 50 90 60
VIDALIA 80 62 81 64 / 10 20 80 30
FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...SM
LONG TERM....MARTIN
AVIATION...SEC
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