035
FXUS62 KFFC 291930
AFDFFC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
330 PM EDT SAT MAR 29 2025
..AFTERNOON AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 PM EDT SAT MAR 29 2025
KEY MESSAGES:
- A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY.
A SHORTWAVE FROM MS AND AL INTO THE E CENTRAL GULF WILL CONTINUE TO
WEAKEN AS A MORE SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE LIFTS FROM W TX TO THE LOWER
OH VALLEY BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. AT THE SURFACE, A SURFACE LOW WILL
MOVE FROM THE UPPER MS VALLEY TO THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.
A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL DROP SE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND S MS VALLEY
ON SUNDAY.
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY.
THIS IS MANIFESTING IN THE FORM OF MULTI-LAYERED CLOUDINESS ACROSS
THE AREA. SOME VIRGA HAS BEEN OCCURRING TODAY, BUT LITTLE IF ANY
RAIN HAS REACHED THE GROUND THUS FAR. DYNAMIC FORCING IS NOT VERY
STRONG TODAY, AND INSTABILITY IS MEAGER. CLOUD COVER IS ALSO CUTTING
DOWN ON DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION. A FEW SHOWERS ARE NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION THROUGH SUNSET, BUT COVERAGE SHOULD BE MINIMAL.
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY INCREASE TONIGHT.
EVENTUALLY, INSTABILITY AND ISENTROPIC LIFT ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE
LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY. THIS IS EXPECTED TO LEAD TO SHOWER
DEVELOPMENT. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE SUNDAY
MORNING, WITH THUNDERSTORMS BECOMING MORE LIKELY AS WE GET LATER IN
THE MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON. MODEL SOUNDINGS DEPICT DEEP BUT
NARROW CAPE PROFILES WITH EFFECTIVE SHEAR OF AROUND 20 KNOTS. AS A
RESULT, ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY BECOME STRONG TO BORDERLINE
SEVERE, BUT WIDESPREAD SEVERE WX IS NOT ANTICIPATED.
STORMS AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE
COUNTY WARNING AREA (CWA) LATE SUNDAY NIGHT, BUT MOST MODELS HAVE
SLOWED ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS. AS A RESULT, ISOLATED STRONG STORMS
MAY BEGIN TO DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT (MOSTLY ACROSS NW
GA), BUT THE GREATEST THREAT OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS IS EXPECTED
TO HOLD OFF UNTIL MONDAY MORNING (SEE LONG TERM SECTION BELOW).
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM DURING THE SHORT TERM PERIOD, WITH LOWS
MOSTLY IN THE MUGGY 60S (15 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL) AND HIGHS ON
SUNDAY RANGING FROM THE MID 60S IN THE NW MOUNTAINS TO NEAR 80 IN
THE S (AROUND 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL). /SEC
LONG TERM
(MONDAY MORNING THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 PM EDT SAT MAR 29 2025
AS THE LONG TERM PERIOD BEGINS, A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE MOVING
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION, WHILE AN
ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHEAST CANADA WILL BE EXTENDING A
COLD FRONT INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND INTO FAR NORTH GEORGIA. A
LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
ADVANCE INTO FAR NORTHWEST GEORGIA EARLY MONDAY MORNING. PRE-FRONTAL
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THE MAIN
LINE WITHIN THE WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIME ALREADY IN PLACE ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA. HI-RES GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO TREND SLOWER WITH
THE PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT AND PRECIPITATION, ENTERING STORMS
ENTERING THE FORECAST AREA BY 12Z, MOVING THROUGH ATLANTA METRO AREA
AROUND 16-18Z, AND CONTINUING SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
SPC HAS MAINTAINED A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2 OF 5) FOR SEVERE WEATHER
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON MONDAY. TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE
UPPER 70S AND LOW 80S, ALONG WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S,
WILL ALLOW FOR AMPLE DESTABILIZATION. THIS IS ESPECIALLY TRUE IN
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL GEORGIA DURING THE AFTERNOON, WHERE TEMPERATURES
AND DEWPOINTS WILL BOTH BE HIGHEST AND COULD POTENTIALLY SERVE TO
REINVIGORATE CONVECTION. SBCAPE VALUES BETWEEN 1000-1500 J/KG AND
STRONG MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AHEAD OF THE FRONT INDICATES THE
POTENTIAL FOR STRONG UPDRAFTS CAPABLE OF SUPPORTING SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS. THE ORIENTATION OF LOW LEVEL SHEAR VECTORS IMPLIES A
PRIMARILY LINEAR MODE OF CONVECTION. FURTHERMORE, 0-1 KM SHEAR COULD
BE AS HIGH AS 25-35 KTS WITH 0-1 KM SRH BETWEEN 150-250 M2/S2. THE
COMBINATION OF THESE PARAMETERS SUGGESTS THAT THE PRIMARY THREAT
WITH SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THAT OCCUR WILL BE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS,
THOUGH LARGE HAIL AND A COUPLE OF BRIEF TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE.
THE EVOLUTION OF STORMS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED AS THEY MOVE INTO
CENTRAL GEORGIA ON MONDAY AFTERNOON. PEAK HEATING AND THE
GREATEST INSTABILITY WILL OVERLAP WITH THE TIMING OF WHEN THE
TROUGH AXIS IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE STATE DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING, AND ENHANCED ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION OF A JET STREAK POSITIONED ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF
THE TROUGH AXIS. A FAVORABLE ALIGNMENT IN THESE FACTORS COULD LEAD
TO A LOCALLY INCREASED RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS IN CENTRAL GEORGIA
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. RAINFALL TOTALS ON MONDAY ARE FORECAST
TO RANGE FROM 0.75 INCH IN EAST-CENTRAL GEORGIA TO 1.5 INCHES IN
FAR WEST GEORGIA. STRONGER STORMS MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVIER
RAINFALL, BUT THE FORWARD PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT AND LINE OF
STORMS SHOULD INHIBIT WIDESPREAD FLASH FLOODING CONCERNS.
THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CLEAR THE FORECAST AREA TO THE
SOUTHEAST AFTER MIDNIGHT, WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COMING TO
AN AT THAT TIME. NORTHWESTERLY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL USHER IN A COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
LOW TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY MORNING WILL DROP INTO THE LOW TO MID
40S ROUGHLY NORTH OF THE I-85 CORRIDOR, AND IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOW
50S TO THE SOUTH. A WEAK RIDGE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS ON
TUESDAY, WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH PROMOTING BENIGN WEATHER
CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE DAY. HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL RISE INTO THE
70S ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA UNDERNEATH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES.
THE INFLUENCE OF THE RIDGE AND SURFACE HIGH WILL BE SHORT-LIVED WITH
A SHIFT TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE RIDGE BY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO ABOVE 6-12 DEGREES
ABOVE DAILY NORMAL VALUES WITHIN WARM AIR ADVECTION. LOWS ON
WEDNESDAY WILL BE IN THE 50S ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S IN NORTH GEORGIA (ASIDE
FROM COOLER TEMPERATURES IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE FAR
NORTHEAST) AND IN THE LOW TO MID 80S IN CENTRAL GEORGIA. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL ALSO RETURN TO PORTIONS OF NORTH GEORGIA AND
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL GEORGIA BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY, A MID-LEVEL TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION, STRENGTHENING
WAA ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND LEADING TO A COUPLE OF UNSEASONABLY
WARM AND HUMID DAYS. UNCERTAINTY REMAINS WITH RESPECT TO THE TIMING
AND EVOLUTION OF THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM, WITH LATEST SOLUTIONS
INDICATING THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT BECOMING ELONGATED FROM WEST TO
EAST AND STALLING NEAR THE NORTH GEORGIA BORDER AND FOCUSING
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER DURING THE LATER PART OF THE
WEEK. GIVEN LITTLE RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY, POPS ON THURSDAY/FRIDAY
HAVE BEEN LIMITED TO CHANCE AT THIS TIME.
KING
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 149 PM EDT SAT MAR 29 2025
MULTI-LAYERED CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE AS DEEP LAYER ATMOSPHERIC
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY INCREASE. HOWEVER, CIGS ARE GENERALLY
FORECAST TO REMAIN VFR UNTIL SHOWER ACTIVITY BEGINS TO DEVELOP
SUNDAY MORNING. AT THAT TIME, MVFR CIGS ARE FORECAST TO BEGIN TO
DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA AND EXPAND. HAVE INCLUDED A PROB30 GROUP FOR
THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AT ATL AS INSTABILITY INCREASES. SE
WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD, ALTHOUGH WINDS MAY
OCCASIONALLY SHIFT TO S TO SSW WITH DAYTIME MIXING. A FEW GUSTS TO 18
KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON, BUT SPEEDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN
FAIRLY LIGHT.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
LOW TO MEDIUM TO EXACT START TIME OF PRECIP AND MVFR CIGS, MEDIUM TO
HIGH FOR OTHER ELEMENTS.
SEC
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
ATHENS 59 75 62 74 / 60 90 70 90
ATLANTA 61 75 64 73 / 50 80 80 90
BLAIRSVILLE 54 67 57 68 / 70 90 80 100
CARTERSVILLE 60 75 61 74 / 40 90 70 90
COLUMBUS 61 79 64 76 / 40 80 60 80
GAINESVILLE 60 72 63 73 / 60 90 90 90
MACON 61 80 63 78 / 40 90 40 70
ROME 60 75 60 73 / 50 80 70 90
PEACHTREE CITY 59 76 62 73 / 50 80 60 90
VIDALIA 62 80 63 84 / 20 80 30 50
FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...SEC
LONG TERM....KING
AVIATION...SEC
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