355
FXUS62 KFFC 300607 AAA
AFDFFC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
207 AM EDT SUN MAR 30 2025
..NEW 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 PM EDT SAT MAR 29 2025
KEY MESSAGES:
- A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY.
A SHORTWAVE FROM MS AND AL INTO THE E CENTRAL GULF WILL CONTINUE
TO WEAKEN AS A MORE SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE LIFTS FROM W TX TO THE
LOWER OH VALLEY BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. AT THE SURFACE, A SURFACE LOW
WILL MOVE FROM THE UPPER MS VALLEY TO THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT AND
SUNDAY. A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL DROP SE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
S MS VALLEY ON SUNDAY.
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY. THIS IS MANIFESTING IN THE FORM OF MULTI-LAYERED CLOUDINESS
ACROSS THE AREA. SOME VIRGA HAS BEEN OCCURRING TODAY, BUT LITTLE
IF ANY RAIN HAS REACHED THE GROUND THUS FAR. DYNAMIC FORCING IS
NOT VERY STRONG TODAY, AND INSTABILITY IS MEAGER. CLOUD COVER IS
ALSO CUTTING DOWN ON DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION. A FEW SHOWERS ARE
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THROUGH SUNSET, BUT COVERAGE SHOULD BE
MINIMAL.
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY INCREASE TONIGHT.
EVENTUALLY, INSTABILITY AND ISENTROPIC LIFT ARE FORECAST TO
INCREASE LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY. THIS IS EXPECTED TO LEAD
TO SHOWER DEVELOPMENT. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN
COVERAGE SUNDAY MORNING, WITH THUNDERSTORMS BECOMING MORE LIKELY
AS WE GET LATER IN THE MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON. MODEL
SOUNDINGS DEPICT DEEP BUT NARROW CAPE PROFILES WITH EFFECTIVE
SHEAR OF AROUND 20 KNOTS. AS A RESULT, ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY
BECOME STRONG TO BORDERLINE SEVERE, BUT WIDESPREAD SEVERE WX IS
NOT ANTICIPATED.
STORMS AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE
COUNTY WARNING AREA (CWA) LATE SUNDAY NIGHT, BUT MOST MODELS HAVE
SLOWED ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS. AS A RESULT, ISOLATED STRONG
STORMS MAY BEGIN TO DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT (MOSTLY
ACROSS NW GA), BUT THE GREATEST THREAT OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
IS EXPECTED TO HOLD OFF UNTIL MONDAY MORNING (SEE LONG TERM
SECTION BELOW).
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM DURING THE SHORT TERM PERIOD, WITH LOWS
MOSTLY IN THE MUGGY 60S (15 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL) AND HIGHS
ON SUNDAY RANGING FROM THE MID 60S IN THE NW MOUNTAINS TO NEAR 80
IN THE S (AROUND 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL). /SEC
LONG TERM
(MONDAY MORNING THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 PM EDT SAT MAR 29 2025
AS THE LONG TERM PERIOD BEGINS, A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE MOVING
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION, WHILE AN
ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHEAST CANADA WILL BE EXTENDING A
COLD FRONT INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND INTO FAR NORTH GEORGIA. A
LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE FRONT IS EXPECTED
TO ADVANCE INTO FAR NORTHWEST GEORGIA EARLY MONDAY MORNING. PRE-
FRONTAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF
THE MAIN LINE WITHIN THE WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIME ALREADY IN
PLACE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. HI-RES GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO TREND
SLOWER WITH THE PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT AND PRECIPITATION,
ENTERING STORMS ENTERING THE FORECAST AREA BY 12Z, MOVING THROUGH
ATLANTA METRO AREA AROUND 16-18Z, AND CONTINUING SOUTHEASTWARD
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
SPC HAS MAINTAINED A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2 OF 5) FOR SEVERE
WEATHER ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON MONDAY. TEMPERATURES CLIMBING
INTO THE UPPER 70S AND LOW 80S, ALONG WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO
MID 60S, WILL ALLOW FOR AMPLE DESTABILIZATION. THIS IS ESPECIALLY
TRUE IN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL GEORGIA DURING THE AFTERNOON, WHERE
TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS WILL BOTH BE HIGHEST AND COULD
POTENTIALLY SERVE TO REINVIGORATE CONVECTION. SBCAPE VALUES
BETWEEN 1000-1500 J/KG AND STRONG MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AHEAD OF
THE FRONT INDICATES THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG UPDRAFTS CAPABLE OF
SUPPORTING SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. THE ORIENTATION OF LOW LEVEL
SHEAR VECTORS IMPLIES A PRIMARILY LINEAR MODE OF CONVECTION.
FURTHERMORE, 0-1 KM SHEAR COULD BE AS HIGH AS 25-35 KTS WITH 0-1
KM SRH BETWEEN 150-250 M2/S2. THE COMBINATION OF THESE PARAMETERS
SUGGESTS THAT THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THAT
OCCUR WILL BE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS, THOUGH LARGE HAIL AND A COUPLE
OF BRIEF TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.
THE EVOLUTION OF STORMS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED AS THEY MOVE
INTO CENTRAL GEORGIA ON MONDAY AFTERNOON. PEAK HEATING AND THE
GREATEST INSTABILITY WILL OVERLAP WITH THE TIMING OF WHEN THE
TROUGH AXIS IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE STATE DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING, AND ENHANCED ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION OF A JET STREAK POSITIONED ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF
THE TROUGH AXIS. A FAVORABLE ALIGNMENT IN THESE FACTORS COULD LEAD
TO A LOCALLY INCREASED RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS IN CENTRAL GEORGIA
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. RAINFALL TOTALS ON MONDAY ARE FORECAST
TO RANGE FROM 0.75 INCH IN EAST-CENTRAL GEORGIA TO 1.5 INCHES IN
FAR WEST GEORGIA. STRONGER STORMS MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVIER
RAINFALL, BUT THE FORWARD PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT AND LINE OF
STORMS SHOULD INHIBIT WIDESPREAD FLASH FLOODING CONCERNS.
THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CLEAR THE FORECAST AREA TO THE
SOUTHEAST AFTER MIDNIGHT, WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COMING TO
AN AT THAT TIME. NORTHWESTERLY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL USHER IN A COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. LOW TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY MORNING WILL DROP INTO THE LOW
TO MID 40S ROUGHLY NORTH OF THE I-85 CORRIDOR, AND IN THE UPPER
40S TO LOW 50S TO THE SOUTH. A WEAK RIDGE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
EASTERN CONUS ON TUESDAY, WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH
PROMOTING BENIGN WEATHER CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE DAY. HIGHS ON
TUESDAY WILL RISE INTO THE 70S ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST
AREA UNDERNEATH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.
THE INFLUENCE OF THE RIDGE AND SURFACE HIGH WILL BE SHORT-LIVED
WITH A SHIFT TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE
RIDGE BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO ABOVE 6-12
DEGREES ABOVE DAILY NORMAL VALUES WITHIN WARM AIR ADVECTION. LOWS
ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE IN THE 50S ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S IN NORTH GEORGIA
(ASIDE FROM COOLER TEMPERATURES IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE
FAR NORTHEAST) AND IN THE LOW TO MID 80S IN CENTRAL GEORGIA.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL ALSO RETURN TO PORTIONS OF
NORTH GEORGIA AND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL GEORGIA BY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY, A MID-LEVEL TROUGH AND SURFACE
LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY INTO THE GREAT
LAKES REGION, STRENGTHENING WAA ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND LEADING
TO A COUPLE OF UNSEASONABLY WARM AND HUMID DAYS. UNCERTAINTY
REMAINS WITH RESPECT TO THE TIMING AND EVOLUTION OF THIS LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM, WITH LATEST SOLUTIONS INDICATING THE ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT BECOMING ELONGATED FROM WEST TO EAST AND STALLING NEAR
THE NORTH GEORGIA BORDER AND FOCUSING PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE
NORTHERN TIER DURING THE LATER PART OF THE WEEK. GIVEN LITTLE RUN
TO RUN CONSISTENCY, POPS ON THURSDAY/FRIDAY HAVE BEEN LIMITED TO
CHANCE AT THIS TIME.
KING
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 151 AM EDT SUN MAR 30 2025
CURRENT VFR CIGS (6.5 KFT TO 12 KFT) ARE FORECAST TO LOWER TO
MVFR CIGS BETWEEN 11Z AND 14Z. THERE REMAINS THE POSSIBILITY FOR
IFR CIGS AT THE ATL AREA SITES AND AHN, BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW
TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS. SCATTERED -SHRA THIS MORNING WILL GIVE WAY
TO MORE WIDESPREAD -SHRA BY 16Z-18Z AT THESE NORTHERN TAF SITES.
INCREASING -SHRA WILL OCCUR AT MCN AND CSG BY 17Z-19Z. CONTINUING
A PROB30 AT ALL SITES FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED TSRA DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. WINDS WILL STAY SSE TO SE AT 5-10
KTS, OUTSIDE OF GUSTY WINDS IN TSRA.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON CIGS (PARTICULARLY IFR CIG POTENTIAL) AND
TIMING OF -SHRA AND TSRA. HIGH CONFIDENCE ON ALL OTHER ELEMENTS.
MARTIN
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
ATHENS 58 75 62 74 / 60 90 60 90
ATLANTA 61 75 64 73 / 50 80 70 90
BLAIRSVILLE 54 68 57 68 / 70 90 90 100
CARTERSVILLE 59 75 60 74 / 40 90 80 90
COLUMBUS 60 79 63 76 / 40 80 30 80
GAINESVILLE 58 72 63 73 / 60 90 80 90
MACON 60 80 63 78 / 40 90 50 70
ROME 60 75 60 73 / 50 80 80 90
PEACHTREE CITY 58 76 62 73 / 50 80 50 90
VIDALIA 61 81 63 84 / 20 80 60 50
FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...SEC
LONG TERM....KING
AVIATION...MARTIN
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