184
FXUS62 KFFC 300912
AFDFFC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
512 AM EDT SUN MAR 30 2025
..MORNING AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 453 AM EDT SUN MAR 30 2025
- A LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT NORTH AND
CENTRAL GEORGIA EARLY MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING,
WITH DAMAGING STRAIGHT-LINE WINDS AS THE MAIN HAZARD.
- TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL AND WILL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO FLIRT WITH RECORD HIGHS BY THE END OF THE WEEK.
- LOW-END POPS ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA THROUGH THE LATER PART OF THE
LONG TERM AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS COULD BECOME STRONG.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 453 AM EDT SUN MAR 30 2025
500 MB RAP ANALYSIS OVERLAID ON MID-LEVEL WATER VAPOR SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A LONGWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
CONUS. AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH, MOISTURE IS INCREASING ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST, EVIDENCED BY LIGHT RADAR RETURNS ACROSS PARTS OF AL,
NORTHERN GA, AND EASTERN TN. SHOWERS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE
GENERALLY FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE MORNING AS DEW
POINTS CLIMB INTO THE 60S AND PWATS CLIMB TO 1.2" TO 1.4".
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. A FEW STORMS COULD BE STRONG (POSSIBLY SEVERE) WITH GUSTY
TO DAMAGING WIND GUSTS, AS HREF MEAN MUCAPE IS 750-1250 J/KG.
THAT SAID, A FEW LIMITING FACTORS FOR STRONG TO SEVERE CONVECTION
WILL BE NARROW CAPE PROFILES, MEAGER SHEAR PARAMETERS, AND POOR
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE WARM AND SPRING-LIKE
-- GENERALLY IN THE 70S WITH LOWER 80S ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA.
THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH WILL SHIFT EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PORTION OF THE CONUS TONIGHT WITH THE ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM (POSITIONED WELL TO OUR NORTH, OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION) DRIVING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE OH/TN RIVER VALLEY.
CONVECTION WILL ORGANIZE INTO A QLCS ALONG THE FRONT, PUSHING INTO
NORTHWEST GEORGIA WITHIN AN HOUR OR TWO OF SUNRISE ON MONDAY. THE
ARRIVAL OF THE QLCS IN NORTHWEST GEORGIA IS COVERED BY A MARGINAL
RISK (LEVEL 1 OUT OF 5) TO A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2 OUT OF 5) FOR
SEVERE STORMS, PER SPC. THE MAIN HAZARD WILL BE DAMAGING STRAIGHT-
LINE WINDS, WITH A RELATIVELY LOW THREAT FOR A BRIEF TORNADO AND
HAIL. THE WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF THE LINE WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY
AMPLE INSTABILITY, WITH HREF MEAN MUCAPE AS HIGH AS 1000 J/KG AND
HALF OF THE CAMS/HI-RES MODELS DEPICTING MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF
7-8 C/KM (AND LITTLE TO NO CIN).
SPC NOW HAS AN ENHANCED RISK (LEVEL 3 OUT OF 5) FOR SEVERE STORMS
ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA FOR THE REMAINDER OF MONDAY
MORNING THROUGH THE EVENING. SIMILAR TO WHAT THE PREVIOUS SHORT
TERM DISCUSSION MENTIONED, THE QLCS IS PROGGED TO PUSH THROUGH THE
ATLANTA METRO AREA BETWEEN 15Z AND 19Z. DAYTIME HEATING WILL
REINVIGORATE THE QLCS AS IT TRACKS EASTWARD ACROSS THE REST OF THE
STATE. HREF MEAN MUCAPE IS 750-1500 J/KG ON MONDAY AFTERNOON, BUT
ONE CAVEAT WILL BE WHETHER OR NOT PRE-FRONTAL SHOWERS AND/OR
STORMS HINDER INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE LINE. SOME OF THE CAMS/HI-
RES MODELS ARE VASTLY DIFFERENT IN THEIR FORECAST OF MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES ALONG AND SOUTH/EAST OF THE I-85 CORRIDOR FOR THIS
REASON. THE MODELS THAT ARE MORE BULLISH WITH INSTABILITY ALSO
DEPICT EFFECTIVE INFLOW SRH AROUND 150 M2/S2 AND UP TO AROUND 35
KTS OF 0-1 KM SHEAR, WHICH INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF
TORNADOES EMBEDDED IN THE LINE. THAT SAID, THE MAIN HAZARD WILL BE
DAMAGING STRAIGHT-LINE WINDS AS THE QLCS PUSHES EASTWARD. IF
ROBUST MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE REALIZED IN AN ADEQUATELY
UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT, LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE. HIGH TEMPS WILL
BE SIMILAR TO THOSE TODAY.
WHILE SOME OF THE STORMS WILL BE HEAVY RAINFALL PRODUCERS, THE
FORWARD MOTION OF THE QLCS SHOULD PRECLUDE FLASH FLOODING. THAT
SAID, LOCALIZED NUISANCE/LOW-IMPACT FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
ANY STORMS THAT ARE ESPECIALLY STRONG AND OCCUR OVER AREAS WITH
POOR DRAINAGE. TOTAL RAINFALL FROM TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT IS
FORECAST TO RANGE FROM 1.0" TO 1.5".
MARTIN
LONG TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 453 AM EDT SUN MAR 30 2025
STARTING OFF THE LONG TERM ON TUESDAY MORNING BEHIND THE FRONT. POST
FRONTAL CONDITIONS LIKELY WON'T BE CHARACTERIZED BY ANY SIGNIFICANT
COOLING OF TEMPS. NEAR SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK IN OVER THE
SOUTHEAST COAST AND UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWEST FLOW DOMINATES THE CENTRAL
CONUS. HIGHS EACH DAY START OFF ABOVE NORMAL (MID 70S) AND ONLY
CLIMB THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK (MID AND UPPER 80S). HIGHS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 80S WILL FLIRT WITH RECORDS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. NOT
ONLY WILL IT BE WARM TO HOT, SOUTHWEST FLOW AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT
MEAN IT COULD ALSO BE STICKY (A LITTLE TASTE OF SUMMER). PWATS
WEDNESDAY ONWARD HOLD AT OR ABOVE 1".
WHILE THE MAIN JET SUPPORT WILL BE FURTHER NORTH, LOW END POPS
REMAIN ACROSS NORTH GA FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE CLOSE OF THE LONG
TERM OUTLOOK. ANY SHORTWAVE WHICH RIDES THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW AND
CLIPS OUR AREA COULD INITIATE THUNDERSTORMS, EVEN IN SPITE OF THE
SFC HIGH. THE COMBINATION OF MOISTURE AND HEAT, AS WELL AS BULK
SHEAR AROUND 30 KTS, SUGGESTS THAT AN ISOLATED STORM COULD BECOME
STRONG TO EVEN SEVERE. THIS, OF COURSE IS HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON
STORMS BEING ABLE TO FORM IN THE FIRST PLACE. THE BEST CHANCE FOR
STORMS LOOKS TO BE NEAR THE END OF THE PERIOD THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
SM
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 151 AM EDT SUN MAR 30 2025
CURRENT VFR CIGS (6.5 KFT TO 12 KFT) ARE FORECAST TO LOWER TO
MVFR CIGS BETWEEN 11Z AND 14Z. THERE REMAINS THE POSSIBILITY FOR
IFR CIGS AT THE ATL AREA SITES AND AHN, BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW
TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS. SCATTERED -SHRA THIS MORNING WILL GIVE WAY
TO MORE WIDESPREAD -SHRA BY 16Z-18Z AT THESE NORTHERN TAF SITES.
INCREASING -SHRA WILL OCCUR AT MCN AND CSG BY 17Z-19Z. CONTINUING
A PROB30 AT ALL SITES FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED TSRA DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. WINDS WILL STAY SSE TO SE AT 5-10
KTS, OUTSIDE OF GUSTY WINDS IN TSRA.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON CIGS (PARTICULARLY IFR CIG POTENTIAL) AND
TIMING OF -SHRA AND TSRA. HIGH CONFIDENCE ON ALL OTHER ELEMENTS.
MARTIN
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
ATHENS 76 62 73 47 / 70 70 100 10
ATLANTA 76 63 73 48 / 70 50 90 10
BLAIRSVILLE 68 56 68 39 / 80 70 100 10
CARTERSVILLE 76 61 73 42 / 80 70 100 0
COLUMBUS 80 64 75 52 / 70 30 100 10
GAINESVILLE 73 63 71 47 / 70 70 100 10
MACON 80 63 77 52 / 70 40 90 20
ROME 76 60 74 43 / 80 90 90 0
PEACHTREE CITY 77 61 73 45 / 70 50 100 10
VIDALIA 81 64 83 59 / 70 50 80 50
FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...MARTIN
LONG TERM....SM
AVIATION...MARTIN
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