392
FXUS62 KFFC 301444
AFDFFC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1044 AM EDT SUN MAR 30 2025
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1037 AM EDT SUN MAR 30 2025
HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO ADJUST FOR CURRENT RADAR TRENDS AND
THE LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION MODEL GUIDANCE. HAVE ALSO ADJUSTED
FORECAST MAX TEMPS DOWN A DEGREE ACROSS THE BOARD DUE TO CLOUD
COVER. THIS MAY NOT BE ENOUGH, BUT WILL RE-EVALUATE OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS. REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. WE'RE
STARTING TO SEE SOME IN-CLOUD LIGHTNING S OF MCN, AND ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED BY MIDDAY AND INTO THE
AFTERNOON. SPC MESOANALYSIS PAGE INDICATES INCREASING CAPES ACROSS
MOST OF THE AREA, WITH GREATEST INCREASES ACROSS THE S (CONSISTENT
WITH WHERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING). /SEC
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 453 AM EDT SUN MAR 30 2025
500 MB RAP ANALYSIS OVERLAID ON MID-LEVEL WATER VAPOR SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A LONGWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
CONUS. AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH, MOISTURE IS INCREASING ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST, EVIDENCED BY LIGHT RADAR RETURNS ACROSS PARTS OF AL,
NORTHERN GA, AND EASTERN TN. SHOWERS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE
GENERALLY FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE MORNING AS DEW
POINTS CLIMB INTO THE 60S AND PWATS CLIMB TO 1.2" TO 1.4". ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED STORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A FEW
STORMS COULD BE STRONG (POSSIBLY SEVERE) WITH GUSTY TO DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS, AS HREF MEAN MUCAPE IS 750-1250 J/KG. THAT SAID, A FEW
LIMITING FACTORS FOR STRONG TO SEVERE CONVECTION WILL BE NARROW CAPE
PROFILES, MEAGER SHEAR PARAMETERS, AND POOR MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES.
HIGH TEMPS WILL BE WARM AND SPRING-LIKE -- GENERALLY IN THE 70S WITH
LOWER 80S ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA.
THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH WILL SHIFT EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PORTION OF THE CONUS TONIGHT WITH THE ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
(POSITIONED WELL TO OUR NORTH, OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION)
DRIVING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE OH/TN RIVER VALLEY. CONVECTION WILL
ORGANIZE INTO A QLCS ALONG THE FRONT, PUSHING INTO NORTHWEST GEORGIA
WITHIN AN HOUR OR TWO OF SUNRISE ON MONDAY. THE ARRIVAL OF THE QLCS
IN NORTHWEST GEORGIA IS COVERED BY A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OUT OF 5)
TO A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2 OUT OF 5) FOR SEVERE STORMS, PER SPC. THE
MAIN HAZARD WILL BE DAMAGING STRAIGHT- LINE WINDS, WITH A RELATIVELY
LOW THREAT FOR A BRIEF TORNADO AND HAIL. THE WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF THE
LINE WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY AMPLE INSTABILITY, WITH HREF MEAN
MUCAPE AS HIGH AS 1000 J/KG AND HALF OF THE CAMS/HI-RES MODELS
DEPICTING MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 7-8 C/KM (AND LITTLE TO NO CIN).
SPC NOW HAS AN ENHANCED RISK (LEVEL 3 OUT OF 5) FOR SEVERE STORMS
ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA FOR THE REMAINDER OF MONDAY MORNING
THROUGH THE EVENING. SIMILAR TO WHAT THE PREVIOUS SHORT TERM
DISCUSSION MENTIONED, THE QLCS IS PROGGED TO PUSH THROUGH THE ATLANTA
METRO AREA BETWEEN 15Z AND 19Z. DAYTIME HEATING WILL REINVIGORATE
THE QLCS AS IT TRACKS EASTWARD ACROSS THE REST OF THE STATE. HREF
MEAN MUCAPE IS 750-1500 J/KG ON MONDAY AFTERNOON, BUT ONE CAVEAT WILL
BE WHETHER OR NOT PRE-FRONTAL SHOWERS AND/OR STORMS HINDER
INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE LINE. SOME OF THE CAMS/HI- RES MODELS ARE
VASTLY DIFFERENT IN THEIR FORECAST OF MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ALONG AND
SOUTH/EAST OF THE I-85 CORRIDOR FOR THIS REASON. THE MODELS THAT ARE
MORE BULLISH WITH INSTABILITY ALSO DEPICT EFFECTIVE INFLOW SRH
AROUND 150 M2/S2 AND UP TO AROUND 35 KTS OF 0-1 KM SHEAR, WHICH
INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF TORNADOES EMBEDDED IN THE LINE. THAT
SAID, THE MAIN HAZARD WILL BE DAMAGING STRAIGHT-LINE WINDS AS THE
QLCS PUSHES EASTWARD. IF ROBUST MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE REALIZED IN
AN ADEQUATELY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT, LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE.
HIGH TEMPS WILL BE SIMILAR TO THOSE TODAY.
WHILE SOME OF THE STORMS WILL BE HEAVY RAINFALL PRODUCERS, THE
FORWARD MOTION OF THE QLCS SHOULD PRECLUDE FLASH FLOODING. THAT SAID,
LOCALIZED NUISANCE/LOW-IMPACT FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY
STORMS THAT ARE ESPECIALLY STRONG AND OCCUR OVER AREAS WITH POOR
DRAINAGE. TOTAL RAINFALL FROM TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT IS FORECAST
TO RANGE FROM 1.0" TO 1.5".
MARTIN
LONG TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 453 AM EDT SUN MAR 30 2025
STARTING OFF THE LONG TERM ON TUESDAY MORNING BEHIND THE FRONT. POST
FRONTAL CONDITIONS LIKELY WON'T BE CHARACTERIZED BY ANY SIGNIFICANT
COOLING OF TEMPS. NEAR SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK IN OVER THE
SOUTHEAST COAST AND UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWEST FLOW DOMINATES THE CENTRAL
CONUS. HIGHS EACH DAY START OFF ABOVE NORMAL (MID 70S) AND ONLY CLIMB
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK (MID AND UPPER 80S). HIGHS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 80S WILL FLIRT WITH RECORDS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. NOT ONLY
WILL IT BE WARM TO HOT, SOUTHWEST FLOW AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT MEAN IT
COULD ALSO BE STICKY (A LITTLE TASTE OF SUMMER). PWATS WEDNESDAY
ONWARD HOLD AT OR ABOVE 1".
WHILE THE MAIN JET SUPPORT WILL BE FURTHER NORTH, LOW END POPS
REMAIN ACROSS NORTH GA FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE CLOSE OF THE LONG
TERM OUTLOOK. ANY SHORTWAVE WHICH RIDES THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW AND
CLIPS OUR AREA COULD INITIATE THUNDERSTORMS, EVEN IN SPITE OF THE SFC
HIGH. THE COMBINATION OF MOISTURE AND HEAT, AS WELL AS BULK SHEAR
AROUND 30 KTS, SUGGESTS THAT AN ISOLATED STORM COULD BECOME STRONG TO
EVEN SEVERE. THIS, OF COURSE IS HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON STORMS BEING
ABLE TO FORM IN THE FIRST PLACE. THE BEST CHANCE FOR STORMS LOOKS TO
BE NEAR THE END OF THE PERIOD THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
SM
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 645 AM EDT SUN MAR 30 2025
MVFR CIGS ARE DEVELOPING ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH GEORGIA, INCLUDING
METRO ATLANTA. THE POTENTIAL FOR IFR CIGS AT THE ATL AREA SITES AND
AHN REMAINS TOO LOW FOR INCLUSION IN THE TAFS. SCATTERED -SHRA THIS
MORNING WILL BECOME WIDESPREAD BY 16Z-18Z AT THESE NORTHERN TAF
SITES. INCREASING -SHRA WILL OCCUR AT MCN AND CSG BY 17Z-19Z.
CONTINUING THE PROB30 AT ALL SITES FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED TSRA
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. WINDS WILL BE SSE AT 5-10 KTS
(OUTSIDE OF GUSTY WINDS IN TSRA) MAY BE DUE S AT TIMES.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...12Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON EVOLUTION OF CIGS AND TIMING OF TSRA. HIGH
CONFIDENCE ON ALL OTHER ELEMENTS.
MARTIN
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
ATHENS 76 62 73 47 / 70 70 100 10
ATLANTA 76 63 73 48 / 70 50 90 10
BLAIRSVILLE 68 56 68 39 / 80 70 100 10
CARTERSVILLE 76 61 73 42 / 80 70 100 0
COLUMBUS 80 64 75 52 / 70 30 100 10
GAINESVILLE 73 63 71 47 / 70 70 100 10
MACON 80 63 77 52 / 70 40 90 20
ROME 76 60 74 43 / 80 90 90 0
PEACHTREE CITY 77 61 73 45 / 70 50 100 10
VIDALIA 81 64 83 59 / 70 50 80 50
FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...SEC
LONG TERM....SM
AVIATION...MARTIN
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