649
FXUS62 KFFC 301914
AFDFFC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
314 PM EDT SUN MAR 30 2025
..AFTERNOON AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SHORT TERM
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 249 PM EDT SUN MAR 30 2025
KEY MESSAGES:
- A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY THIS EVENING.
- SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WHICH WILL BE
SWEEPING ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY.
A SHORTWAVE HAS SHIFTED E OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON, WITH MOSTLY
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. A BROADER SHORTWAVE WILL APPROACH THE AREA LATE
TONIGHT AND ON MONDAY. A SURFACE COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM A SURFACE
LOW NEAR CHICAGO TO N TX WILL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY,
EXITING THE AREA MONDAY EVENING.
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY.
THIS IS MANIFESTING IN THE FORM OF MULTI-LAYERED CLOUDINESS ACROSS
THE AREA. CLOUD COVER IS ALSO CUTTING DOWN ON DIURNAL
DESTABILIZATION. HOWEVER, MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE INDICATING DEEP, THIN
CAPE, AND A FEW STRONG TO BORDERLINE SEVERE STORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE
INTO EARLY EVENING IN AREAS THAT RECEIVE MORE SUN.
STORMS AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE
COUNTY WARNING AREA (CWA) LATE TONIGHT. AS A RESULT, ISOLATED STRONG
STORMS MAY BEGIN TO DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT (MOSTLY ACROSS NW
GA), BUT THE GREATEST THREAT OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS IS EXPECTED
TO HOLD OFF UNTIL MONDAY MORNING ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE ACTUAL FRONT.
CAPE VALUES WILL INCREASE TO 1000-1500 J/KG AHEAD OF THE FRONT, WITH
EFFECTIVE SHEAR AROUND 40 KTS. SPC HAS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE
STORMS ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AND ON MONDAY. THE GREATEST
THREAT WILL BE FROM GUSTY, STRAIGHT LINE WINDS, BUT A FEW STORMS MAY
PRODUCE TORNADOES OR HAIL.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM DURING THE SHORT TERM PERIOD, WITH LOWS
MOSTLY IN THE MUGGY 60S TONIGHT (15 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL) AND
HIGHS ON MONDAY RANGING FROM THE UPPER 60S IN THE NW MOUNTAINS TO
THE LOWER 80S IN THE EXTREME SE (AROUND 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL).
COOLER AIR WILL FILTER IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT MONDAY NIGHT, WITH
LOWS RANGING FROM THE LOWER TO MID 40S ACROSS THE N TO NEAR 60 IN THE
EXTREME SE. /SEC
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 249 PM EDT SUN MAR 30 2025
A POST-FRONTAL AIRMASS AND LIGHT NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL SETTLE IN
OVER NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA BY TUESDAY MORNING. LOW TEMPERATURES
WILL BEGIN IN THE LOW TO MID 40S ROUGHLY NORTH OF THE THE I-85
CORRIDOR AND IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S TO THE SOUTH. OTHERWISE,
COOLING BEHIND THE FRONT WILL NOT BE ESPECIALLY SIGNIFICANT. A WEAK
RIDGE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS ON TUESDAY WHILE NEAR
SURFACE PRESSURE BEGINS TO INCREASE. THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED TO THE NORTH WILL PROMOTE BENIGN WEATHER CONDITIONS AND
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND WILL LEAD TO A QUICK
RECOVERY OF TEMPERATURES. HIGHS ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON WILL RISE INTO
THE LOW TO MID 70S IN NORTH GEORGIA AND IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S
IN CENTRAL GEORGIA. BY WEDNESDAY MORNING, THE AXIS OF THE RIDGE WILL
CLEAR THE FORECAST AREA TO THE EAST, WITH SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL
FLOW SETTING UP IN ITS WAKE. LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL MEANWHILE SHIFT TO
THE SOUTHEAST. STEADY ADVECTION OF WARM AND MOIST AIR WITHIN THIS
FLOW PATTERN WILL ALLOW DEWPOINTS TO CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 50S TO MID
60S BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. FURTHERMORE, HIGH TEMPERATURES. HIGHS
WILL CONTINUE TO CLIMB EACH DAY DURING THE LATER PART OF THE WEEK,
RISING INTO THE MID 80S TO LOW 90S EACH AFTERNOON FROM THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY (15-20 DEGREES ABOVE DAILY AVERAGES). ALONG WITH
APPROACHING DAILY RECORDS, THESE TEMPERATURES WILL COMBINE WITH
INCREASING DEWPOINTS FOR A MUGGY, SUMMER-LIKE FEEL.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL ALSO RETURN TO PORTIONS OF NORTH
GEORGIA AND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL GEORGIA BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY, A MID-LEVEL TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE
FROM THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS
REGION. A COLD FRONT WILL EXTEND SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY AND TOWARDS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. WARM AIR
ADVECTION WILL PERSIST AHEAD OF THIS FRONT, AS INDICATED BY THE
UNSEASONABLY WARM DAYS AT THE END OF THE PERIOD. AS THE PARENT LOW
OCCLUDES AND CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY INTO SOUTHEAST CANADA, IT IS
LOOKING INCREASINGLY LIKELY THAT THE FRONT WILL BECOME ELONGATED
FROM WSW TO ENE ROUGHLY PARALLEL TO THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW AND STALL
TO THE NORTH OF THE STATE LINE. WITH AMPLE SURFACE INSTABILITY DUE
TO THE HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS, STORMS THAT DEVELOP IN THE VICINITY
OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY COULD SPREAD INTO NORTH GEORGIA, WITH SLIGHT
CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS BEING MAINTAINED ROUGHLY NORTH OF I-20 FROM
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. SBCAPE VALUES AS HIGH AS 1000-1500 J/KG
IN THE AFTERNOONS COMBINED WITH DEEP LAYER BULK SHEAR VALUES OF 35-
45 KTS TO THE SOUTH OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL
OF AT LEAST ISOLATED STORMS BECOMING STRONG TO SEVERE. HOWEVER, AT
THIS TIME, THE MORE ORGANIZED AND SUBSTANTIAL SEVERE WEATHER THREAT
IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN NORTH AND WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA, BUT WILL
ULTIMATELY DEPEND ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND
WHERE THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT STALLS.
KING
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 149 PM EDT SUN MAR 30 2025
MULTI-LAYERED CLOUDS AND EARLIER CONVECTION HAVE LIMITED NEW SHOWER
DEVELOPMENT THUS FAR. STILL EXPECT SHOWERS TO BECOME A BIT MORE
WIDESPREAD LATER THIS AFTERNOON WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS STILL
EXPECTED. ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO WIND DOWN EARLY THIS EVENING. LOW
CIGS WILL THICKEN AND LOWER OVERNIGHT, WITH IFR-LIFR CIGS POSSIBLE
ALONG WITH PATCHY, MOSTLY LIGHT FOG. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL RETURN
LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THESE
STORMS WILL BE STRONGER, AND HAVE INCLUDED WIND GUSTS TO 40 KTS AT
MOST TERMINALS. WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT OUTSIDE OF TSTMS. WIND
DIRECTION WILL STAY MOSTLY SE-SSE THROUGH TONIGHT, VEERING TO SW ON
MONDAY.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
LOW-MEDIUM FOR THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON, MEDIUM FOR
CIGS LATE TONIGHT AND TIMING/COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF
FRONT. HIGH FOR OTHER ELEMENTS.
SEC
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
ATHENS 62 76 48 78 / 50 90 30 0
ATLANTA 64 74 49 77 / 40 90 20 0
BLAIRSVILLE 57 70 40 74 / 80 90 10 0
CARTERSVILLE 61 75 43 77 / 50 90 10 0
COLUMBUS 64 77 54 81 / 20 90 20 10
GAINESVILLE 63 73 48 76 / 60 90 20 0
MACON 63 79 54 80 / 30 90 40 10
ROME 61 75 44 76 / 60 90 10 0
PEACHTREE CITY 62 75 46 78 / 30 90 20 10
VIDALIA 64 83 60 83 / 30 70 70 10
FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...SEC
LONG TERM....KING
AVIATION...SEC
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