233
FXUS62 KFFC 310558 AAA
AFDFFC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
158 AM EDT MON MAR 31 2025
..NEW 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION
SHORT TERM
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 249 PM EDT SUN MAR 30 2025
KEY MESSAGES:
- A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY THIS EVENING.
- SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WHICH WILL
BE SWEEPING ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY.
A SHORTWAVE HAS SHIFTED E OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON, WITH MOSTLY
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. A BROADER SHORTWAVE WILL APPROACH THE AREA LATE
TONIGHT AND ON MONDAY. A SURFACE COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM A
SURFACE LOW NEAR CHICAGO TO N TX WILL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA ON
MONDAY, EXITING THE AREA MONDAY EVENING.
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY. THIS IS MANIFESTING IN THE FORM OF MULTI-LAYERED CLOUDINESS
ACROSS THE AREA. CLOUD COVER IS ALSO CUTTING DOWN ON DIURNAL
DESTABILIZATION. HOWEVER, MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE INDICATING DEEP,
THIN CAPE, AND A FEW STRONG TO BORDERLINE SEVERE STORMS REMAIN
POSSIBLE INTO EARLY EVENING IN AREAS THAT RECEIVE MORE SUN.
STORMS AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE
COUNTY WARNING AREA (CWA) LATE TONIGHT. AS A RESULT, ISOLATED
STRONG STORMS MAY BEGIN TO DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT (MOSTLY
ACROSS NW GA), BUT THE GREATEST THREAT OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
IS EXPECTED TO HOLD OFF UNTIL MONDAY MORNING ALONG AND AHEAD OF
THE ACTUAL FRONT. CAPE VALUES WILL INCREASE TO 1000-1500 J/KG
AHEAD OF THE FRONT, WITH EFFECTIVE SHEAR AROUND 40 KTS. SPC HAS AN
ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE STORMS ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AND
ON MONDAY. THE GREATEST THREAT WILL BE FROM GUSTY, STRAIGHT LINE
WINDS, BUT A FEW STORMS MAY PRODUCE TORNADOES OR HAIL.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM DURING THE SHORT TERM PERIOD, WITH LOWS
MOSTLY IN THE MUGGY 60S TONIGHT (15 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL)
AND HIGHS ON MONDAY RANGING FROM THE UPPER 60S IN THE NW MOUNTAINS
TO THE LOWER 80S IN THE EXTREME SE (AROUND 5 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL). COOLER AIR WILL FILTER IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT MONDAY
NIGHT, WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE LOWER TO MID 40S ACROSS THE N TO
NEAR 60 IN THE EXTREME SE. /SEC
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 249 PM EDT SUN MAR 30 2025
A POST-FRONTAL AIRMASS AND LIGHT NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL SETTLE
IN OVER NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA BY TUESDAY MORNING. LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN IN THE LOW TO MID 40S ROUGHLY NORTH OF THE
THE I-85 CORRIDOR AND IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S TO THE SOUTH.
OTHERWISE, COOLING BEHIND THE FRONT WILL NOT BE ESPECIALLY
SIGNIFICANT. A WEAK RIDGE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS ON
TUESDAY WHILE NEAR SURFACE PRESSURE BEGINS TO INCREASE. THE
INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO THE NORTH WILL PROMOTE
BENIGN WEATHER CONDITIONS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THROUGHOUT THE
DAY AND WILL LEAD TO A QUICK RECOVERY OF TEMPERATURES. HIGHS ON
TUESDAY AFTERNOON WILL RISE INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S IN NORTH
GEORGIA AND IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S IN CENTRAL GEORGIA. BY
WEDNESDAY MORNING, THE AXIS OF THE RIDGE WILL CLEAR THE FORECAST
AREA TO THE EAST, WITH SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW SETTING UP
IN ITS WAKE. LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL MEANWHILE SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST.
STEADY ADVECTION OF WARM AND MOIST AIR WITHIN THIS FLOW PATTERN
WILL ALLOW DEWPOINTS TO CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S BY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. FURTHERMORE, HIGH TEMPERATURES. HIGHS WILL
CONTINUE TO CLIMB EACH DAY DURING THE LATER PART OF THE WEEK,
RISING INTO THE MID 80S TO LOW 90S EACH AFTERNOON FROM THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY (15-20 DEGREES ABOVE DAILY AVERAGES). ALONG WITH
APPROACHING DAILY RECORDS, THESE TEMPERATURES WILL COMBINE WITH
INCREASING DEWPOINTS FOR A MUGGY, SUMMER-LIKE FEEL.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL ALSO RETURN TO PORTIONS OF
NORTH GEORGIA AND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL GEORGIA BY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY, A MID-LEVEL TROUGH AND SURFACE
LOW WILL MOVE FROM THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS ACROSS THE NORTHERN
GREAT PLAINS REGION. A COLD FRONT WILL EXTEND SOUTHWESTWARD
THROUGH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND TOWARDS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY. WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL PERSIST AHEAD OF THIS FRONT,
AS INDICATED BY THE UNSEASONABLY WARM DAYS AT THE END OF THE
PERIOD. AS THE PARENT LOW OCCLUDES AND CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY INTO
SOUTHEAST CANADA, IT IS LOOKING INCREASINGLY LIKELY THAT THE
FRONT WILL BECOME ELONGATED FROM WSW TO ENE ROUGHLY PARALLEL TO
THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW AND STALL TO THE NORTH OF THE STATE LINE.
WITH AMPLE SURFACE INSTABILITY DUE TO THE HOT AND HUMID
CONDITIONS, STORMS THAT DEVELOP IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY COULD SPREAD INTO NORTH GEORGIA, WITH SLIGHT CHANCE TO
CHANCE POPS BEING MAINTAINED ROUGHLY NORTH OF I-20 FROM THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY. SBCAPE VALUES AS HIGH AS 1000-1500 J/KG IN THE
AFTERNOONS COMBINED WITH DEEP LAYER BULK SHEAR VALUES OF 35- 45
KTS TO THE SOUTH OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL OF
AT LEAST ISOLATED STORMS BECOMING STRONG TO SEVERE. HOWEVER, AT
THIS TIME, THE MORE ORGANIZED AND SUBSTANTIAL SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN NORTH AND WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA,
BUT WILL ULTIMATELY DEPEND ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM AND WHERE THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT STALLS.
KING
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 143 AM EDT MON MAR 31 2025
SHRA HAVE CEASED OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS AND EXPECT THIS LULL TO
CONTINUE FOR A FEW MORE HOURS. SHRA MAY RETURN AS EARLY AS ~10Z
AHEAD OF A LINE OF STRONG/SEVERE TSRA CURRENTLY MARCHING EASTWARD
ACROSS TN AND NORTHERN MS. THIS LINE IS FORECAST TO IMPACT RYY
BETWEEN 14Z AND 18Z, ATL AND FTY BETWEEN 15Z AND 19Z, PDK AND AHN
BETWEEN 16Z AND 20Z, AND MCN AND CSG BETWEEN 17Z AND 21Z. IFR CIGS
(WITH LIFR AT MCN) ARE PROGGED TO LIFT TO MVFR THIS AFTERNOON.
REDUCED VSBY AND WIND GUSTS OF 40+ KTS ARE EXPECTED IN TSRA. WINDS
ARE BEGINNING TO SHIFT FROM SSE TO SSW. OUTSIDE OF TSRA TODAY,
WINDS WILL BE 8-13 KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 20-22 KTS.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON TIMING OF LINE OF TSRA AND EVOLUTION OF CIGS
THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH CONFIDENCE ON ALL OTHER ELEMENTS.
MARTIN
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
ATHENS 61 76 48 78 / 50 80 30 0
ATLANTA 64 74 49 77 / 40 90 20 0
BLAIRSVILLE 57 70 40 74 / 60 80 10 0
CARTERSVILLE 61 75 43 77 / 50 70 10 0
COLUMBUS 63 77 54 81 / 30 90 20 10
GAINESVILLE 62 73 48 76 / 50 90 20 0
MACON 63 79 54 80 / 50 80 40 10
ROME 61 75 44 76 / 60 70 10 0
PEACHTREE CITY 62 75 46 78 / 30 90 20 10
VIDALIA 63 83 60 83 / 30 70 70 10
FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...SEC
LONG TERM....KING
AVIATION...MARTIN
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