345
FXUS62 KFFC 310835
AFDFFC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
435 AM EDT MON MAR 31 2025
..MORNING AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 415 AM EDT MON MAR 31 2025
- A LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE THROUGH OVER
THE COURSE OF THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. DAMAGING STRAIGHT-
LINE WINDS ARE THE MAIN HAZARD, WITH A SECONDARY THREAT FOR
BRIEF TORNADOES.
- TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL AND HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO FLIRT WITH RECORD HIGHS BY THE END OF THE WEEK.
- LOW END POPS ACROSS NORTH GA THROUGH MUCH OF THE LONG TERM. A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 415 AM EDT MON MAR 31 2025
500 MB RAP ANALYSIS OVERLAID ON MID-LEVEL WATER VAPOR SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS A SHORTWAVE LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE OH RIVER
VALLEY. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT CURRENTLY STRETCHES FROM THE
GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH THE MS RIVER VALLEY INTO THE ARKLATEX
REGION. A NORTHEAST-TO-SOUTHWEST ORIENTED QLCS HAS DEVELOPED AHEAD
THE COLD FRONT AND IS MARCHING EASTWARD. IT IS CURRENTLY JUST
WEST OF THE APPALACHIANS, ACROSS EAST-CENTRAL TN, FAR NORTHERN AL,
AND NORTHERN MS. SPC MESOANALYSIS DEPICTS MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
OF 7-8 C/KM ACROSS NORTH GA, METRO ATLANTA, AND WEST GA, AS WELL
AS CAPE VALUES OF 500-1000 J/KG AND LITTLE TO NO CIN... EVIDENCE
OF THE WARM, MOIST (DEW POINTS ARE IN THE 60S) AND UNSTABLE
ENVIRONMENT IN PLACE AHEAD OF THE QLCS.
AS OF THE ISSUANCE OF THE MORNING FORECAST PACKAGE, THE QLCS
COULD ARRIVE ACROSS FAR NORTH GA AS EARLY AS 11Z TO 13Z (7 AM TO 9
AM). THE TIMING FOR METRO ATLANTA IS BETWEEN 14Z (10 AM) AND 20Z
(4 PM), AND FOR CENTRAL GA, BETWEEN 17Z (1 PM) AND 22Z (6 PM).
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE QLCS LATER THIS MORNING AND THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON, HREF MEAN MUCAPE IS 1000-2000 J/KG AND SURFACE TO 500
MB BULK SHEAR IS 30-40 KTS. LIKE WHAT HAS BEEN OCCURRING THUS FAR
WITH THIS SYSTEM, EXPECT THAT DAMAGING STRAIGHT-LINE WINDS WILL BE
LIKELY. THE QLCS HAS EXHIBITED A LEWP (LINE ECHO WAVE PATTERN)
UPSTREAM THIS MORNING, AND SCP (SUPERCELL COMPOSITE PARAMETER)
VALUES PER THE LATEST HRRR RUN SUGGEST AN OVERLAP IN KEY SUPERCELL
INGREDIENTS ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA. THE LATEST HRRR AND
THE 00Z RUNS OF OTHER CAMS ALSO DEPICT 0-1 KM BULK SHEAR OF 30-40
KTS. ALL THAT TO SAY THAT THE POTENTIAL FOR LINE-EMBEDDED BRIEF
TORNADOES HAS INCREASED.
REGARDING THE SPC CONVECTIVE OUTLOOKS FOR TODAY, THE ARRIVAL OF
THE QLCS IN FAR NORTHWEST/FAR NORTH-CENTRAL GA PRIOR TO 7 AM IS
COVERED BY AN ENHANCED RISK (LEVEL 3 OUT OF 5) TO SLIGHT RISK
(LEVEL 2 OUT OF 5). FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON, SPC HAS VIRTUALLY THE ENTIRE CWA IN AN ENHANCED RISK OR
SLIGHT RISK, AS THE QLCS PUSHES SOUTHEASTWARD AND IS REINVIGORATED
BY DAYTIME HEATING. AS MENTIONED ABOVE, THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT
TODAY IS DRIVEN PRIMARILY BY STRAIGHT-LINE WINDS WITH A SECONDARY
THREAT FOR BRIEF TORNADOES. THE POTENTIAL FOR HAIL IS RELATIVELY
LOW, AS QLCSS ARE NOT TYPICALLY HAIL PRODUCERS.
AN IMPORTANT CONSIDERATION/CAVEAT -- ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
DRIZZLE/SHOWERS ARE DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE QLCS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF AL AND GA AT THE TIME OF THIS WRITING. THIS ACTIVITY COULD
STABILIZE THE ENVIRONMENT SOMEWHAT BEFORE THE QLCS ARRIVES, SO A
SLIGHT WEAKENING TREND COULD OCCUR AS THE SYSTEM MOVES INTO GA.
THAT SAID, EXPECT THAT ENOUGH DESTABILIZATION WILL OCCUR WITH
INSOLATION THAT THE QLCS WILL REINTENSIFY LATER THIS MORNING AND
AFTERNOON AS IT TREKS EASTWARD. ANOTHER IMPORTANT
CONSIDERATION/CAVEAT -- THE CAMS DEPICT A BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS DEVELOPING BEHIND THE QLCS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING AS THE ACTUAL FRONT MOVES THROUGH FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST. A FEW STRONG (POSSIBLY SEVERE) STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
AS AMPLE INSTABILITY AND SHEAR PARAMETERS LOOK TO STILL BE IN
PLACE AT THAT TIME.
WHILE SOME OF THE STORMS TODAY WILL BE HEAVY RAINFALL PRODUCERS,
THE FORWARD MOTION OF THE QLCS SHOULD PRECLUDE FLASH FLOODING.
THAT SAID, LOCALIZED NUISANCE/LOW-IMPACT FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE
WITH ANY STORMS THAT ARE ESPECIALLY STRONG AND OCCUR OVER AREAS
WITH POOR DRAINAGE.
THE ACTIVE WEATHER WILL EXIT THE SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE CWA
TONIGHT. COOLER, DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO NORTH GA IN ITS WAKE --
OVERNIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY MORNING LOWS WILL BE IN 40S, WITH UPPER
30S POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS. LOWS IN THE 50S ARE EXPECTED ACROSS
CENTRAL GA. A DRY, SUNNY TUESDAY IS IN STORE WITH SPRING-LIKE
AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE 70S AND 80S.
MARTIN
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 415 AM EDT MON MAR 31 2025
THE HEAT WILL BE THE MAIN STORY OF THE LONG TERM OUTLOOK. NEAR
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK IN OVER THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND
UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWEST FLOW DOMINATES THE CENTRAL CONUS. A LITTLE
TASTE OF THE SUMMER-TIME DOOM RIDGE. HIGHS EACH DAY START OFF
ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR AND ONLY CLIMB THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK (UPPER 80S AND MAYBE EVEN BREAKING 90). ALL CLIMATE
SITES HAVE RECORDS OF 88 TO 91 DEGREES THROUGH THE 6TH. NOT ONLY
WILL IT BE WARM TO HOT, SOUTHWEST FLOW AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT MEAN
IT COULD ALSO BE STICKY (A LITTLE TASTE OF SUMMER). PWATS
WEDNESDAY ONWARD HOLD AT OR ABOVE 1", SO NOW IS THE TIME TO MAKE
SURE YOU HAVE A WAY TO STAY COOL.
WHILE THE MAIN JET SUPPORT WILL BE FURTHER NORTH, LOW END POPS
REMAIN ACROSS NORTH GA FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE CLOSE OF THE
LONG TERM OUTLOOK. ANY SHORTWAVE WHICH RIDES THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW
AND CLIPS OUR AREA COULD INITIATE THUNDERSTORMS, EVEN IN SPITE OF
THE SFC HIGH. THE COMBINATION OF MOISTURE AND HEAT, AS WELL AS
BULK SHEAR AROUND 30 KTS, SUGGESTS THAT AN ISOLATED STORM COULD
BECOME STRONG. THIS, OF COURSE, IS HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON STORMS
BEING ABLE TO FORM IN THE FIRST PLACE.
OUR NEXT CHANCE FOR MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN AND A LITTLE BIT OF A
COOL OFF IS SUNDAY AT THE EARLIEST. IT ALL DEPENDS ON WHEN THE
RIDGE BREAKS DOWN.
SM
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 143 AM EDT MON MAR 31 2025
SHRA HAVE CEASED OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS AND EXPECT THIS LULL TO
CONTINUE FOR A FEW MORE HOURS. SHRA MAY RETURN AS EARLY AS ~10Z
AHEAD OF A LINE OF STRONG/SEVERE TSRA CURRENTLY MARCHING EASTWARD
ACROSS TN AND NORTHERN MS. THIS LINE IS FORECAST TO IMPACT RYY
BETWEEN 14Z AND 18Z, ATL AND FTY BETWEEN 15Z AND 19Z, PDK AND AHN
BETWEEN 16Z AND 20Z, AND MCN AND CSG BETWEEN 17Z AND 21Z. IFR CIGS
(WITH LIFR AT MCN) ARE PROGGED TO LIFT TO MVFR THIS AFTERNOON.
REDUCED VSBY AND WIND GUSTS OF 40+ KTS ARE EXPECTED IN TSRA. WINDS
ARE BEGINNING TO SHIFT FROM SSE TO SSW. OUTSIDE OF TSRA TODAY,
WINDS WILL BE 8-13 KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 20-22 KTS.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON TIMING OF LINE OF TSRA AND EVOLUTION OF CIGS
THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH CONFIDENCE ON ALL OTHER ELEMENTS.
MARTIN
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
ATHENS 74 48 78 55 / 80 30 0 20
ATLANTA 73 48 77 60 / 90 30 0 20
BLAIRSVILLE 69 40 74 50 / 80 20 0 10
CARTERSVILLE 73 43 76 56 / 70 10 0 10
COLUMBUS 76 51 82 61 / 90 20 0 10
GAINESVILLE 72 47 75 56 / 90 30 0 20
MACON 78 51 81 60 / 80 30 0 10
ROME 73 43 76 56 / 70 10 0 10
PEACHTREE CITY 73 45 78 58 / 90 30 0 10
VIDALIA 83 60 84 63 / 70 30 10 10
FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...MARTIN
LONG TERM....SM
AVIATION...MARTIN
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