981
FXUS62 KFFC 311754
AFDFFC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
154 PM EDT MON MAR 31 2025
..NEW 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1048 AM EDT MON MAR 31 2025
THE FORECAST REMAINS MOSTLY ON TRACK, WITH A LINE OF STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS STARTING TO MOVE INTO PORTIONS OF NW GEORGIA THIS
MORNING. THIS LINE WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF
NORTH AND CENTRAL GA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON HOURS, WITH THE PRIMARY THREAT OF DAMAGING STRAIGHT-LINE
WIND GUSTS, AND A SECONDARY THREAT FOR BRIEF TORNADOES. WITH THE
LINE GOING SLIGHTLY SLOWER THAN ORIGINALLY ANTICIPATED, THERE MAY
BE ENOUGH SUNLIGHT AND MIXING TO MAXIMIZE INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE
LINE ACROSS AREAS OF CENTRAL GEORGIA LATER ON THE THIS AFTERNOON,
LOCALLY INCREASING THE SEVERE THREAT. REGARDLESS, SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCHES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR THE ENTIRE AREA
TODAY. THE MOST LIKELY TIMING FOR SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS NW GA IS
NOW THROUGH 1PM, WITH NOON-3PM FOR THE I-85 CORRIDOR AND ATLANTA
METRO, AND 2PM-6PM FOR AREAS OF CENTRAL GA INCLUDING COLUMBUS,
MACON, AND PORTIONS OF I-75 AND I-16. WE WILL STILL HAVE TO WATCH
OUT FOR ADDITIONAL STORMS POPPING UP BEHIND THIS INITIAL LINE OF
STORMS ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA, AS SEVERE INGREDIENTS WILL STILL BE
IN PLACE WHEN A FRONT PUSHES THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY EVENING.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 415 AM EDT MON MAR 31 2025
500 MB RAP ANALYSIS OVERLAID ON MID-LEVEL WATER VAPOR SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS A SHORTWAVE LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE OH RIVER
VALLEY. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT CURRENTLY STRETCHES FROM THE
GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH THE MS RIVER VALLEY INTO THE ARKLATEX
REGION. A NORTHEAST-TO-SOUTHWEST ORIENTED QLCS HAS DEVELOPED AHEAD
THE COLD FRONT AND IS MARCHING EASTWARD. IT IS CURRENTLY JUST
WEST OF THE APPALACHIANS, ACROSS EAST-CENTRAL TN, FAR NORTHERN AL,
AND NORTHERN MS. SPC MESOANALYSIS DEPICTS MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
OF 7-8 C/KM ACROSS NORTH GA, METRO ATLANTA, AND WEST GA, AS WELL
AS CAPE VALUES OF 500-1000 J/KG AND LITTLE TO NO CIN... EVIDENCE
OF THE WARM, MOIST (DEW POINTS ARE IN THE 60S) AND UNSTABLE
ENVIRONMENT IN PLACE AHEAD OF THE QLCS.
AS OF THE ISSUANCE OF THE MORNING FORECAST PACKAGE, THE QLCS
COULD ARRIVE ACROSS FAR NORTH GA AS EARLY AS 11Z TO 13Z (7 AM TO 9
AM). THE TIMING FOR METRO ATLANTA IS BETWEEN 14Z (10 AM) AND 20Z
(4 PM), AND FOR CENTRAL GA, BETWEEN 17Z (1 PM) AND 22Z (6 PM).
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE QLCS LATER THIS MORNING AND THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON, HREF MEAN MUCAPE IS 1000-2000 J/KG AND SURFACE TO 500
MB BULK SHEAR IS 30-40 KTS. LIKE WHAT HAS BEEN OCCURRING THUS FAR
WITH THIS SYSTEM, EXPECT THAT DAMAGING STRAIGHT-LINE WINDS WILL BE
LIKELY. THE QLCS HAS EXHIBITED A LEWP (LINE ECHO WAVE PATTERN)
UPSTREAM THIS MORNING, AND SCP (SUPERCELL COMPOSITE PARAMETER)
VALUES PER THE LATEST HRRR RUN SUGGEST AN OVERLAP IN KEY SUPERCELL
INGREDIENTS ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA. THE LATEST HRRR AND
THE 00Z RUNS OF OTHER CAMS ALSO DEPICT 0-1 KM BULK SHEAR OF 30-40
KTS. ALL THAT TO SAY THAT THE POTENTIAL FOR LINE-EMBEDDED BRIEF
TORNADOES HAS INCREASED.
REGARDING THE SPC CONVECTIVE OUTLOOKS FOR TODAY, THE ARRIVAL OF
THE QLCS IN FAR NORTHWEST/FAR NORTH-CENTRAL GA PRIOR TO 7 AM IS
COVERED BY AN ENHANCED RISK (LEVEL 3 OUT OF 5) TO SLIGHT RISK
(LEVEL 2 OUT OF 5). FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON, SPC HAS VIRTUALLY THE ENTIRE CWA IN AN ENHANCED RISK OR
SLIGHT RISK, AS THE QLCS PUSHES SOUTHEASTWARD AND IS
REINVIGORATED BY DAYTIME HEATING. AS MENTIONED ABOVE, THE SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT TODAY IS DRIVEN PRIMARILY BY STRAIGHT-LINE WINDS
WITH A SECONDARY THREAT FOR BRIEF TORNADOES. THE POTENTIAL FOR
HAIL IS RELATIVELY LOW, AS QLCSS ARE NOT TYPICALLY HAIL PRODUCERS.
AN IMPORTANT CONSIDERATION/CAVEAT -- ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
DRIZZLE/SHOWERS ARE DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE QLCS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF AL AND GA AT THE TIME OF THIS WRITING. THIS ACTIVITY COULD
STABILIZE THE ENVIRONMENT SOMEWHAT BEFORE THE QLCS ARRIVES, SO A
SLIGHT WEAKENING TREND COULD OCCUR AS THE SYSTEM MOVES INTO GA.
THAT SAID, EXPECT THAT ENOUGH DESTABILIZATION WILL OCCUR WITH
INSOLATION THAT THE QLCS WILL REINTENSIFY LATER THIS MORNING AND
AFTERNOON AS IT TREKS EASTWARD. ANOTHER IMPORTANT
CONSIDERATION/CAVEAT -- THE CAMS DEPICT A BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS DEVELOPING BEHIND THE QLCS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING AS THE ACTUAL FRONT MOVES THROUGH FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST. A FEW STRONG (POSSIBLY SEVERE) STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
AS AMPLE INSTABILITY AND SHEAR PARAMETERS LOOK TO STILL BE IN
PLACE AT THAT TIME.
WHILE SOME OF THE STORMS TODAY WILL BE HEAVY RAINFALL PRODUCERS,
THE FORWARD MOTION OF THE QLCS SHOULD PRECLUDE FLASH FLOODING.
THAT SAID, LOCALIZED NUISANCE/LOW-IMPACT FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE
WITH ANY STORMS THAT ARE ESPECIALLY STRONG AND OCCUR OVER AREAS
WITH POOR DRAINAGE.
THE ACTIVE WEATHER WILL EXIT THE SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE CWA
TONIGHT. COOLER, DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO NORTH GA IN ITS WAKE --
OVERNIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY MORNING LOWS WILL BE IN 40S, WITH UPPER
30S POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS. LOWS IN THE 50S ARE EXPECTED ACROSS
CENTRAL GA. A DRY, SUNNY TUESDAY IS IN STORE WITH SPRING-LIKE
AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE 70S AND 80S.
MARTIN
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 415 AM EDT MON MAR 31 2025
THE HEAT WILL BE THE MAIN STORY OF THE LONG TERM OUTLOOK. NEAR
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK IN OVER THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND
UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWEST FLOW DOMINATES THE CENTRAL CONUS. A LITTLE
TASTE OF THE SUMMER-TIME DOOM RIDGE. HIGHS EACH DAY START OFF
ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR AND ONLY CLIMB THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK (UPPER 80S AND MAYBE EVEN BREAKING 90). ALL CLIMATE
SITES HAVE RECORDS OF 88 TO 91 DEGREES THROUGH THE 6TH. NOT ONLY
WILL IT BE WARM TO HOT, SOUTHWEST FLOW AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT MEAN
IT COULD ALSO BE STICKY (A LITTLE TASTE OF SUMMER). PWATS
WEDNESDAY ONWARD HOLD AT OR ABOVE 1", SO NOW IS THE TIME TO MAKE
SURE YOU HAVE A WAY TO STAY COOL.
WHILE THE MAIN JET SUPPORT WILL BE FURTHER NORTH, LOW END POPS
REMAIN ACROSS NORTH GA FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE CLOSE OF THE
LONG TERM OUTLOOK. ANY SHORTWAVE WHICH RIDES THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW
AND CLIPS OUR AREA COULD INITIATE THUNDERSTORMS, EVEN IN SPITE OF
THE SFC HIGH. THE COMBINATION OF MOISTURE AND HEAT, AS WELL AS
BULK SHEAR AROUND 30 KTS, SUGGESTS THAT AN ISOLATED STORM COULD
BECOME STRONG. THIS, OF COURSE, IS HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON STORMS
BEING ABLE TO FORM IN THE FIRST PLACE.
OUR NEXT CHANCE FOR MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN AND A LITTLE BIT OF A
COOL OFF IS SUNDAY AT THE EARLIEST. IT ALL DEPENDS ON WHEN THE
RIDGE BREAKS DOWN.
SM
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 145 PM EDT MON MAR 31 2025
A LINE OF SHRA AND TSRA WITH MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS AND WINDS
VRBG35KT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. CONDITIONS TEMPORARILY IMPROVING TO
VFR ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LINE OF SHRA/TSRA, BEFORE POTENTIAL
MVFR CIGS (020-030) RETURN WITH A FRONTAL PASSAGE AROUND 00-06Z.
OUTSIDE OF SHRA/TSRA, WINDS WILL BE W/NW AROUND 10KTS, TURNING
NW/N OVERNIGHT BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. GENERALLY, VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH 5-10 KT NW WINDS AFTER 09Z ACROSS THE
AREA.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON TIMING AND IMPACTS OF LINE OF TSRA AND
IMPROVEMENT AFTER. LOW CONFIDENCE ON MVFR CIGS WITH EVENING-
OVERNIGHT FRONTAL PASSAGE.
CULVER
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
ATHENS 75 48 77 54 / 100 20 0 10
ATLANTA 74 48 77 59 / 100 20 0 10
BLAIRSVILLE 69 39 73 49 / 100 10 0 10
CARTERSVILLE 74 42 75 55 / 100 10 0 10
COLUMBUS 77 51 81 61 / 90 10 0 0
GAINESVILLE 73 47 74 55 / 100 10 0 10
MACON 79 51 80 60 / 90 20 0 10
ROME 74 42 76 54 / 100 0 0 10
PEACHTREE CITY 74 45 78 57 / 100 20 0 10
VIDALIA 83 60 84 63 / 80 50 0 10
FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...CULVER
LONG TERM....SM
AVIATION...CULVER
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