482
FXUS62 KFFC 311848
AFDFFC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
248 PM EDT MON MAR 31 2025
..AFTERNOON AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 238 PM EDT MON MAR 31 2025
- A LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
ACROSS CENTRAL GA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. DAMAGING STRAIGHT-
LINE WINDS ARE THE MAIN HAZARD, WITH A SECONDARY THREAT FOR
BRIEF TORNADOES AND LARGE HAIL.
- CHANCES FOR ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS RETURN WEDNESDAY
FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH GEORGIA.
- WELL ABOVE AVERAGE, POTENTIALLY RECORD-BREAKING, TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
SHORT TERM
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 238 PM EDT MON MAR 31 2025
A LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH ACROSS
NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS,
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS, LARGE HAIL, AND A BRIEF
TORNADO. THIS QLCS FORMED OUT AHEAD OF A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT THAT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA LATER ON THIS
EVENING, USHERING IN A COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS BEHIND IT
OVERNIGHT. WHILE A FEW SHOWERS COULD DEVELOP ALONG THE COLD FRONT,
MOST AREAS WILL BE DRY ONCE THE QLCS PASSES THIS AFTERNOON. LOW
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE 40S ACROSS THE AREA UNDER
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND BREEZY NW WINDS. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN BEHIND THE FRONT ON TUESDAY WILL SUPPORT DRY
CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT WINDS, MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES, AND HIGH
TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S.
CULVER
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 238 PM EDT MON MAR 31 2025
THE EXTENDED RANGE WILL BE GOVERNED BY THE INFLUENCE OF THE
STRONG, PERSISTENT BERMUDA HIGH PROGGED TO NOSE ITS WAY WESTWARD
THROUGHOUT THE DAY WEDNESDAY, ITS CENTER SETTING UP RESIDENCE
ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF TO CAROLINA COAST. AS A RESULT, EXPECT A
MULTI-DAY SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW/WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIME TO DEVELOP,
LINGERING UNTIL A STRONG MID-LEVEL TROUGH DIGGING ACROSS THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION NUDGES THE HIGH BACK OUT INTO THE ATLANTIC LATE
WEEKEND. RAIN CHANCES ARE LIKELY TO BE RELEGATED TO AREAS ON THE
NORTHWESTERN FRINGES OF THE RIDGE (PORTIONS OF NORTH AND NORTHWEST
GEORGIA), WHERE ISENTROPICALLY-FORCED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE POSSIBLE WITH ANY SHORTWAVES TRAVERSING THE MID-LEVEL FLOW,
AND SUBSIDENCE TO DOMINATE ELSEWHERE. ON WEDNESDAY, ONE OF THESE
RIDGE-RIDERS MAY SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED STRONG TO
SEVERE CONVECTION, AND A MARGINAL (LEVEL 1 OUT OF 5) RISK IS IN
EFFECT FOR MUCH OF NORTH GEORGIA TO CAPTURE THIS. BEST KINEMATICS
WILL REMAIN WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA, BUT GIVEN
INCREASING MOISTURE AND WARMING TEMPERATURES, THE THERMODYNAMIC
SUPPORT WILL BE THERE IF STORMS DO FORM.
THE BIG TICKET ITEM WILL BE UNSEASONABLY WARM HIGH TEMPERATURES
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF ANOMALOUSLY STRONG (2-3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS
ABOVE AVERAGE) RIDGING. BEGINNING WEDNESDAY, HIGHS WILL BE IN THE
80S FOR ALL BUT THE TERRAIN OF NORTHEAST GEORGIA (REMAINING IN
THE IN THE UPPER-60S TO 70S), AS MUCH AS 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE
AVERAGE. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO WARM BY A DEGREE OR TWO
UNTIL SATURDAY, WHEN WE PEAK IN THE UPPER-80S TO LOWER-90S (!), 15
TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE FOR EARLY APRIL. NOTABLY, RECORD HIGH
TEMPERATURES FOR OUR CLIMATE SITES (ATL, AHN, CSG, MCN) RANGE
FROM 85 TO 91 DEGREES BETWEEN APRIL 2ND (WEDNESDAY) AND APRIL 5TH
(SATURDAY) -- IF TRENDS CONTINUE, SOME OF THESE MAY BE BROKEN OR
EVEN EXCEEDED BY SEVERAL DEGREES. AN IMPORTANT CAVEAT TO THE
CURRENT TEMPERATURE FORECAST: THE OFFICIAL, DETERMINISTIC NBM
FORECAST IS CURRENTLY UTILIZING THE 25TH PERCENTILE ENSEMBLE VALUE
FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, AND A VALUE THAT IS ACTUALLY BELOW
THE 25TH PERCENTILE ENSEMBLE VALUE (CLOSER TO THE 10TH PERCENTILE)
FOR FRIDAY. IT IS POSSIBLE (IF NOT LIKELY) THAT FORECAST HIGHS
CONTINUE TO CREEP UPWARD TOWARD THE 50TH PERCENTILE VALUE, AND
POTENTIALLY HIGHER GIVEN THE MAGNITUDE OF THE FEATURES AT PLAY.
THIS WOULD RESULT IN HIGHS AN ADDITIONAL 1-3 DEGREES WARMER THAN
WHAT IS CURRENTLY BEING MESSAGED. PLEASE SEE THE CLIMATE SECTION
BELOW FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON CURRENT RECORDS RELEVANT TO
THE LONG TERM FORECAST.
96
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 145 PM EDT MON MAR 31 2025
A LINE OF SHRA AND TSRA WITH MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS AND WINDS
VRBG35KT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. CONDITIONS TEMPORARILY IMPROVING TO
VFR ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LINE OF SHRA/TSRA, BEFORE POTENTIAL
MVFR CIGS (020-030) RETURN WITH A FRONTAL PASSAGE AROUND 00-06Z.
OUTSIDE OF SHRA/TSRA, WINDS WILL BE W/NW AROUND 10KTS, TURNING
NW/N OVERNIGHT BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. GENERALLY, VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH 5-10 KT NW WINDS AFTER 09Z ACROSS THE
AREA.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON TIMING AND IMPACTS OF LINE OF TSRA AND
IMPROVEMENT AFTER. LOW CONFIDENCE ON MVFR CIGS WITH EVENING-
OVERNIGHT FRONTAL PASSAGE.
CULVER
CLIMATE
ISSUED AT 238 PM EDT MON MAR 31 2025
RECORDS FOR 04-02
MAX TEMPERATURE MIN TEMPERATURE
STATION HIGH LOW HIGH LOW
------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----------
KAHN 89 1940 46 1915 62 1927 28 1924
KATL 88 1940 42 1915 64 2012 25 1881
KCSG 89 2017 50 1931 68 1927 34 1992
1927 1961
KMCN 88 1940 48 1915 64 2012 30 2021
1935
RECORDS FOR 04-03
MAX TEMPERATURE MIN TEMPERATURE
STATION HIGH LOW HIGH LOW
------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----------
KAHN 88 1934 47 1987 62 2007 26 1992
1974
KATL 87 2012 39 1987 65 1974 29 1992
KCSG 89 1945 50 1915 70 1977 32 1962
KMCN 89 2012 51 1901 69 1977 30 2021
1957
RECORDS FOR 04-04
MAX TEMPERATURE MIN TEMPERATURE
STATION HIGH LOW HIGH LOW
------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----------
KAHN 89 1934 47 2013 66 1999 29 1915
1987
KATL 85 1969 47 2013 66 1880 30 1987
1987 1936
1891
KCSG 89 1934 52 2013 65 2012 33 1987
1918
KMCN 88 1969 50 2013 69 1977 31 1992
1954
1934
RECORDS FOR 04-05
MAX TEMPERATURE MIN TEMPERATURE
STATION HIGH LOW HIGH LOW
------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----------
KAHN 88 2010 47 1964 62 1969 29 1944
1891
KATL 89 1988 36 1891 66 1880 28 1881
KCSG 91 1934 58 1962 65 1969 34 1987
KMCN 91 1988 53 1944 63 2023 32 2000
1969
1922
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
ATHENS 47 75 54 79 / 20 0 10 30
ATLANTA 47 77 58 83 / 10 0 10 20
BLAIRSVILLE 38 72 49 69 / 10 0 10 30
CARTERSVILLE 42 75 54 83 / 10 0 10 20
COLUMBUS 49 80 60 87 / 20 0 0 0
GAINESVILLE 46 74 54 74 / 10 0 10 30
MACON 50 80 59 87 / 30 0 10 10
ROME 42 75 54 83 / 0 0 10 10
PEACHTREE CITY 44 78 56 84 / 10 0 10 10
VIDALIA 60 83 62 88 / 50 0 10 10
FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...CULVER
LONG TERM....96
AVIATION...CULVER
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